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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Dry In Midwest but Corn Crop Stable

Jun 05, 2012


Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 5, 2012 at 5:05 am. Corn and soybean futures prices are mixed. Weekly crop ratings for corn remain unchanged at 72% good to excellent. The top states of Iowa, Illinois, and Nebraska posted changes of -2%, unchanged, and -4% respectively. USDA posted the first crop rating for soybeans of the year. Good to excellent ratings were seen at 65%. That was under analyst estimates of 69%. Winter Wheat is well into harvest and spring wheat conditions were down 1% to 78% good to excellent compared to the 10 year average of 72%. The weather is still being viewed as a weight on wheat prices with recent rainfall in the Black Sea region of Europe, and Russia having stabilized the European crop. Australia’s winter wheat crop is off to a good start as rain has been timely. World Weather Inc. says, "The bottom line still provides net drying and increasing crop stress later this week and into the weekend as high pressure builds up across the Midwest briefly. Relief then comes for next week with rain falling in many key crop areas at one time or another with amounts sufficient to restore favorable topsoil moisture – at least for a little while." Brazil announced their soybean exports for May at over 2.0 mmt more than last year. Traders are waiting for an announcement that China bought corn from US. Currently, SA prices are lower than US. Macro markets were quiet yesterday and may be again today as London is on holiday until Wednesday. Should see more talk about the crop production report next Tuesday morning. Boxed beef values were higher on Monday with choice up .37 and select up .13. Fill in buying by retailers after good clearance this past weekend. Also we should see support from retailers preparing for Father’s Day only 12 days away. Pork cutout value was up .63 yesterday afternoon. Hog futures are struggling to maintain premium to cash index with only 8 trading days remaining until expiration. Stay in touch with Allendale Research Center for more insight on what is happening in the markets as we near the USDA June Supply and Demand Report.
Markets as of 5:05 AM
Jly Corn    -1 1/2
Jly Beans   +8 1/2
Jly Wheat   - 1/2
Jun Cattle +.35
Jun Hogs    -.35
Jun S&P     -2.75
Jun Dlr     +.25
Jun Crude   - .22
June Gold   +4.80
Here are just a few of the reports we follow and record historical data on:
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday in the Nov. Soybeans we made a new low for the move down by 1/4 cent at $12.44 3/4 . The down trend line is still keeping a tight lid on this market and should continue going forward until we see a close above the 5/29/12 high of $13.07 3/4 . 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The extended forecast still calls for above normal temps and below normal precip. Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri are seen with sharply above normal temperatures. As this dry forecast gets closer to July, the market will show some concern.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.


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