Export Ban on Wheat by Ukraine
Oct 19, 2012
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for October 19, 2012 at 5.10 am. Grains are higher led by wheat. Ukraine announced overnight that they were halting wheat exports as of Nov.15. The halt of shipments by Ukraine has been talked about as a possibility for several days. Follow through buying also providing support after the grain markets woke up on the bullish side of the bed on Thursday. After several quiet sessions and markets in a narrow trading range, a change in the southern hemisphere weather got the motor running. Forecasts turned dryer in Brazil and wetter in Argentina. We have mentioned in previous "Morning Calls" how sensitive traders will be this year to anything but perfect growing conditions around the world. Funds bought 12,000 corn and 11,000 soybeans on Thursday. Some believe this was funds getting back into the market after the CFTC extended the decision on SWAPs. A few things we have to watch for today is: Will the Funds be back doing more buying? And will futures close high enough to signal a weekly chart reversal? A close in Dec corn above 7.68 would look very positive on the charts. A close above the 15.50 level in November soybeans, which is where the 20 day moving average crosses today, could activate more buying. A close above 9.00 would give a positive look to December wheat. Stay in touch with your Allendale Representative and the Allendale Advisory Report. Are you getting the Allendale Daily texts? If not call us or email us your cell number and we will set you up FREE of Charge! The Livestock traders will be waiting for the October Cattle-on-Feed Report this afternoon at 2:00 pm. Average guess are 97.8% on feed, 85.1% placed and 90.0% marketed. Cash cattle trade is at a stand-off with bids at 122 and offers at 127 to 128. Boxed beef was higher with choice up 1.13 and select up .31. Pork cutout value was down .92 on Thursday. We’re getting a great response for our Ag Leaders Webinar
this month which will feature a look at the soy complex with Rich Nelson, Frank La Placa, and our special guest, Al Ambrose. We hope you can join us. Registration
is free and open to everyone.
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn +5 1/2
Nov Beans +2
Dec Wheat +12 3/4
Dec Cattle +.07
Dec Hogs +.27
Dec Dlr +.08
Dec S+P -2.25
Nov Crude -.09
Dec Gold -11.60
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday Dec Wheat continued its range bound trade. At this point, this market can be approached from two ways. One is to buy and sell against the highs and lows and use a stop to prevent a break out, or use a stop and get stopped into the market on any type of breakout from the range…Frank La Placa
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
There’s no way to spin Thursday morning’s export sales report as good for corn. Sales of 166,700 tonnes are 87% under last year’s level. From the five year average, they are down a similar 87%! USDA thinks total year sales will end only 25% under last year.
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