Last Minute Jockeying Into USDA Announcements
Aug 10, 2012
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for August 10, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are higher. This morning we are looking at traders making last minute adjustments ahead of USDA Report at 7:30. A few of the numbers to watch is corn yield. Trade average estimate is 127.3 bushel per acre. That is a 21% decline from trend yield and in 1988 we had 28% decline from trend to final yield. Total production for corn is estimated by trade to be 11.010 billion bushel. That is nearly a 2 billion bushel drop from July estimate. Soybean yields are expected to decline to 37.3 but will USDA lower the yield with potential improvement due to recent rains. The ending stocks for corn and soybeans are heavily watched as USDA adjusts for demand deterioration. The open outcry pit will start trading today at 7:20. Watch the "Morning Coffee" on YouTube after the 7:30 release of data. Steve will be providing this morning’s update because I will be in Portland OR visiting an Allendale Branch Office. You are welcome to call and talk to any Allendale Rep at 800-262-7538. Cash cattle traded in the north at 190 dressed. Boxed beef values were higher with choice up1.28 and select up 1.28. Pork cutout values were .32 on Thursday. Livestock futures will be affected by the grain supply and demand report, keep an eye on trading at 7:30.
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn +5 1/4
Nov Beans +7 1/2
Sep Wheat +3 1/4
Aug Cattle -.50
Aug Hogs +1.75
Sep S&P -5.75
Sep Dlr +1.20
Sep Crude -1.43
Aug Gold -.66
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s trade in Oct Lean Hogs are attempting to carve out a base and reversal low. A close above the 8/03 $78.62 ½ high is needed to confirm this strength. A close below the 08/08 $74.82 ½ low would imply another leg lower.
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The monthly Consumer Price Index report showed inflation fell in July to only a 1.8% year over year growth. In June it was up 2.2%. Very low inflation is positive as it allows their central bank more room to continue expansionary monetary policy. The market trades as though China’s economic growth rate directly correlates with their soybean imports (no actual direct correlation).
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.