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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Quiet Markets Ahead Of Economic Data

Nov 04, 2011

 

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 4, 2011 at 5:30 am. The grain markets are being strung along by the macro events out of the Eurozone. Today we will be waiting for non-farm payroll this morning at 7:30 (exp. 100,000 new jobs) and a confidence vote out of Greece. There should be lots of news for the headline trader again today. We are looking for the day we can again talk about grain fundamentals that matter. For now it appears the news is more rumors to justify the move. The weather is developing as forecast with South America in great shape and the US southern plains receiving rain early next week. Ukraine still needs some moisture. There has been a survey of the Chinese corn by a leading world inspection group which raises their crop to 189.2 mmt. That would put it 7 mmt above the last USDA estimate. The US Attaché in Brazil raised new crop corn production there to 64 mmt. The cattle futures have been on a rocket ride this week. Funds and traders are looking at potential export business as the reason for the excitement. However, the product markets are not supporting the enthusiasm as choice beef was .17 lower. The pork complex is being pressured from the cash side with product and live markets lower. We expect more choppy action today as headline traders dominate market action.
 
Markets as of 5:30AM
Corn—1 to 2 higher                   
Beans—1 to 3 higher                     
Wheat— 1 to 3 higher
Live Cattle—20 to 50 higher      
Lean Hogs— 0 to 10 lower
Dollar— .03 higher                    
Crude—.67 higher                         
Gold— 7.40 higher

 

Allendale Advanced Charts

The bean market found good support near $12.00 area in the Jan contract the past two sessions. A close below that level would likely accelerate the down trend. However the rebound yesterday near the downtrend resistance line set the stage for a potential move to the $12.84 level. Fridays close will be important to next week’s direction.

 

Nelson Notes from desk of Rich Nelson
The government will release new monthly employment numbers Friday morning. The trade expects non-farm payrolls to have increased by 95,000 last month. That would be near the 103,000 number reported for September. It is still below the 200,000 number that economists suggest is needed to reduce unemployment. The October unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged from September at 9.1%.

 

 

There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

 

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