Quiet Markets Ahead Of Economic Data
Nov 04, 2011
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 4, 2011 at 5:30 am. The grain markets are being strung along by the macro events out of the Eurozone. Today we will be waiting for non-farm payroll this morning at 7:30 (exp. 100,000 new jobs) and a confidence vote out of Greece. There should be lots of news for the headline trader again today. We are looking for the day we can again talk about grain fundamentals that matter. For now it appears the news is more rumors to justify the move. The weather is developing as forecast with South America in great shape and the US southern plains receiving rain early next week. Ukraine still needs some moisture. There has been a survey of the Chinese corn by a leading world inspection group which raises their crop to 189.2 mmt. That would put it 7 mmt above the last USDA estimate. The US Attaché in Brazil raised new crop corn production there to 64 mmt. The cattle futures have been on a rocket ride this week. Funds and traders are looking at potential export business as the reason for the excitement. However, the product markets are not supporting the enthusiasm as choice beef was .17 lower. The pork complex is being pressured from the cash side with product and live markets lower. We expect more choppy action today as headline traders dominate market action.
Markets as of 5:30AM
Corn—1 to 2 higher
Beans—1 to 3 higher
Wheat— 1 to 3 higher
Live Cattle—20 to 50 higher
Lean Hogs— 0 to 10 lower
Dollar— .03 higher
Gold— 7.40 higher
Allendale Advanced Charts
The bean market found good support near $12.00 area in the Jan contract the past two sessions. A close below that level would likely accelerate the down trend. However the rebound yesterday near the downtrend resistance line set the stage for a potential move to the $12.84 level. Fridays close will be important to next week’s direction.
Nelson Notes from desk of Rich Nelson
The government will release new monthly employment numbers Friday morning. The trade expects non-farm payrolls to have increased by 95,000 last month. That would be near the 103,000 number reported for September. It is still below the 200,000 number that economists suggest is needed to reduce unemployment. The October unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged from September at 9.1%.
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