Selling Momentum Continues in Grains
May 16, 2012
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for May 16, 2012 at 5:10 am. Corn and soybean futures are lower with spreaders being very active. Technical selling and more risk-off attitude dominate overnight trading. Dry weather in the Midwest over the next 10 days is generating some talk but planting progress and great stands of corn are not allowing much momentum to that thinking. The Ukraine and Russia spring and winter crop regions have rain in the forecast but never seems to arrive. This area will have to be watched closely over the next several weeks. Macro market influences such as elections in Europe will continue to be watched closely. Greece will be holding another election next month with an attempt to put together a parliament. The talk of Greece leaving the EU is sounding more like one of those events where you "sell the rumor and buy the fact". "Only time will tell!" Watch for sales announcements at 8:00am. Cattle traders received some positive news late yesterday when USDA released the daily boxed beef prices. Choice was up .58 and select up 1.58. Pork cutout values were up another .25 on Tuesday. Lean hog futures accelerated to the upside after breaking through the 20 day moving average. We believe it is likely the seasonal lows have been established in the pork complex based on fundamental analysis. Join Us May 22, 2012 for Ag Leaders Webinar
as Rich Nelson, Allendale's Director of Research, examines potential grain acreage shifts and their impact on supply and futures ahead of USDA's big Grain Stocks report in June. We also will have Mike Kavanaugh, Agronomy Manager of AgriGold, to examine crop conditions and their corresponding yield potential. Frank LaPlaca will examine chart price projections. Register HERE
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Jly Corn -4 1/2
Jly Beans -21
Jly Wheat -1 3/4
Jun Cattle +.25
Jun Hogs +.02
Jun S&P -2.25
Jun Dlr +.25
May Crude -1.72
June Gold -21.40
Here are just a few of the reports we follow and record historical data on:
Allendale Advanced Charts
Taking out the 5/1/12 $86.55 highs confirms a base and reversal in the Lean Hogs. An uptrend is in place unless the $84.17 ½ low is taken out.
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports April CPI at only 2.3% higher than last year. This was down from the March level of +2.6%. Food prices also fell from a 3.3% growth in in March to 3.1% growth in April.
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.