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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Spreaders Adjust Positions

Oct 29, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for October 29, 2012 at 5:15 am. Grains are mixed with corn higher and soybeans lower. Profit taking in the spread is a factor after beans rallied 27 cents and corn was down 24 cents last week. Looking ahead to market moving events this week, we have First Notice day for November contracts on Wednesday. However trade is not expecting any deliveries in soybeans. Crush margins remain positive. Soymeal is getting support from demand as end-users are concerned about aflatoxin levels in DDGs. Weather in South America is supporting futures markets as forecasts have less than ideal start to their growing season. However this week’s forecast has a little more moisture for northern Brazil. Cash needs are being filled by resellers due to strong basis. Lower prices are not encouraging producers to open bin doors. The CFTC report had managed money funds adding to longs by more than 26,000 corn contracts, 9800 wheat contracts and 5252 soybean contracts. Remember this data is collected as of Tuesday of last week. Later today we will get the harvest progress report which should give us numbers that say we are basically done. A concern that is coming across my desk from producers is when will we see a pickup in demand? We are almost through our best demand period of the year. Other countries are filling our customer’s needs. Technically a close below 7.32 in Dec corn could trigger more long liquidation. Cattle futures are expected to open lower as boxed beef values fell sharply on Friday. Choice was down 2.55 and select down 2.85. Pork cutout values were down .50 on Friday. Join us for the Ag Leaders Webinar on Tuesday evening October 30th at 8:00 PM CDT. This month will feature a look at the soy complex with Rich Nelson, Frank La Placa, and our special guest, Al Ambrose (who will also be a speaker at Allendale Conference in January). We hope you can join us for the webinar. Registration is free and open to everyone.
 
 
Markets as of 5:15 AM
Dec Corn    +5
Nov Beans   -14 1/4
Dec Wheat   +4 1/4
Dec Cattle Steady-Lower
Dec Hogs    Steady-Lower
Dec Dlr     +.10
Dec S+P     -8.75
Dec Crude   -.80
Dec Gold    +.30
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Dec Corn has its target set on the 10/10 low of $7.32 if we do see a close below this level we will confirm the 10/19 high of $7.69 as the new pivot high that must be closed above to the negate the downtrend. In the meantime the trend must be viewed as down and lower prices should not surprise…Frank La Placa 
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The first estimate of Q3 GDP was revealed at 2.0% on Friday. The trade estimated a 1.8% growth figure for this August – October period. That was up from the Q2 level of 1.3%.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

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