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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Talk of Brazilian Corn Coming Into US

Jul 10, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for July 10, 2012 at 5:15 am. Corn and soybean futures are lower on profit taking and wetter forecast. The USDA crop conditions report gave corn a 40% G/E rating this week. Traders were expecting a double digit loss. The Iowa corn and soybean crops fell by 16% in the G/E rating last week. IL and IN crop ratings fell to 19% and 12% respectively this week. Weather models are putting more rain in the forecast. "World Weather Inc. continues to support a period of slight relief in the next two weeks, but please make sure to note that July rainfall may have a tough time raising soil moisture for very long leaving the potential for more stress later in the month. We still believe that as El Nino evolves in late July and August rain potentials may increase additionally benefiting soybeans, but probably coming too late for corn. If El Nino does not develop significantly there may be additional moisture stress and potential production declines to deal with. The odds are certainly favoring El Nino, however." The marketplace received another blow late yesterday when the story broke that an FCM located in Cedar Falls, IA had problems. The demand side of the balance sheet is starting to get attention as prices move higher. There is talk circulating that a Wilmington, NC firm is importing 1 million tonnes of Brazilian corn into the US. It does make economic sense but the loading lineup out of Brazil is still long. Grain markets are extremely overbought. The USDA Supply and Demand Report will be released on Wednesday morning. Trade will be looking for lower yield numbers and using that estimate as a number to adjust down from on the next report.  Choice beef was down 2.14 while select was up .36. Pork cutout continues its slide, falling .26. Catch the Morning Coffee before 8:00 am.
Markets as of 5:15 AM
Jly Corn    -12 3/4
Jly Beans   -12
Jly Wheat   -15 3/4
Aug Cattle -.17
Jly Hogs    -.35
Sep S&P     +4.00
Sep Dlr     -.12
Aug Crude   -.50
Aug Gold    +4.50
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s trade continues the climb to higher prices with a new contract high. While we were not able to close at the highs the market strength has thus far been very impressive. I expect the uptrend to continue until the gap between $14.93 and $14.78 is filled.

Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
This year’s pollination, through Sunday, has been made at a record 9.5% higher than normal temperature. Give the forecast for more moderate temps, pollination could end 6.7% higher than normal. That would be the third highest level since 1980.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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