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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Traders Now Look To Fed Chairman Speech

Aug 29, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for August 29, 2012 at 5:15 am. Grain futures are higher on short covering from an oversold market. Tuesday’s December corn close was the second close below the 30 day moving average and the fifth consecutive day of a lower settlement price. Thanks to all that attended the Allendale August Ag Leaders Webinar last evening. The storms in the Gulf of Mexico and in the Pacific have turned out to be less threat than earlier forecast. Hurricane Isaac is headed for land and the ruminants are on the way toward the Midwest with heaviest rains projected for the southern IL, IN, and OH. These rains would come at a perfect time for winter wheat seeding. Some late soybeans would benefit from late season rains. Typhoon Bolaven has been downgraded to a tropical storm and did most of its damage across Korea. The market is running out of new supply news making it difficult to push through old highs. Traders are now focusing on the Fed Chairman Bernanke’s speech scheduled for Friday at 9:00 AM central time. Many are expecting rhetoric that will show their hand for another round of quantitative easing. It is starting to concern us that if the trade doesn’t get an announcement of QE3 very soon they may give up on the long side of commodities. The Allendale yield survey is going on this week and we appreciate all the participation. As Frank La Placa mentioned last evening in the webinar, the technical picture is starting to look like a near-term top. In recent weeks we have talked about the revenue that producers have at risk with crop insurance. The fall price option is based on the average of December futures during the month of October. Will that average price be higher or lower than today’s December futures price? We will be happy to discuss some strategies to protect your potential revenue.  Cash cattle are inactive with very little demand. Boxed beef was lower on Tuesday. Choice beef was down .07 and select was down .23. Retailers seem to have their needs for the Labor Day Holiday. Pork cutout values drop another 1.46 yesterday. Futures markets will be closed Monday with grains opening at 7:00 PM Monday evening. Only a few days left to participate in the Allendale Yield Survey.
Markets as of 5:15 AM
Dec Corn    +9
Nov Beans   +11 1/4
Sep Wheat   +13 3/4
Oct Cattle -.02
Oct Hogs    -.17
Sep S&P     -.50
Sep Dlr     +.04
Oct Crude   -.70
Dec Gold    -2.20
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s inside range day does imply that we are losing momentum to the downside. We have seen a break in short term momentum with the violation of 8/02 $123.55 low. Yesterday’s price action implies that we may be going into an sideways market here for the time being.
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
US: The Monday Crop Progress report showed corn good to excellent ratings falling 1% to now 22%. Poor to very poor ratings gained 1% to now 52%. As a whole, the nation’s corn crop is 26% mature while 6% has been harvested.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

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