Weather, Demand and Sunday Night
Aug 03, 2012
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for August 3, 2012 at 5:00 am. Grain futures are slightly lower in a quiet overnight session. Weather news is getting stale as corn moves to maturity and rain will not provide much help. Soybeans could see some benefit from rain but time is running out there as well. Traders now focus on curbing demand. In corn, we are seeing evidence of a slow down with exports well behind USDA forecast levels and the slowdown in ethanol production. Livestock feeders are cutting back as well by reducing herd size. Soybean demand has not given us clear of indications. Processors are still aggressive bidders for beans. The macro markets applied pressure to commodities this week when Bernanke of the Fed and Draghi of the ECB provided no change to current financial policy. The Goldman Roll will start on August 7th. Barge traffic on the Mississippi came to a standstill on Thursday when barges ran aground. As we close out the week traders will be focusing on Sunday night trade. Six out of the last seven Monday’s futures opened sharply higher. The corn market is now in its 9th week of a bull market. Watch headlines for directions. Last chance to subscribe to the Allendale Research Center at the special rate! Packers came out of hibernation yesterday afternoon, when they bought cattle as high 119 in NE and CO which is 4.00 to 6.00 higher. This aggressive buying in the cash excited buyers in futures. A strong close for the week in cattle futures could be confirming a seasonal bottom. Boxed beef was higher on Thursday with choice up .46 and select up .55. Lean hog futures are getting pressure as traders unwind the long hog, short cattle spreads and the strength in the dollar reduces export potential. Pork cutout was down 1.25 on Thursday.
Markets as of 5:00 AM
Dec Corn -2
Nov Beans - 1/2
Sep Wheat +1 1/2
Aug Cattle +.62
Aug Hogs -.10
Sep S&P +9.50
Sep Dlr -.39
Sep Crude +1.12
Aug Gold +7.20
Allendale Advanced Charts
A head and shoulders top was confirmed today with a lower close today. The Move projects four dollars lower to $88.65
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Thursday morning’s export sales report from last week showed 201,000 tonnes of sales which is better than last week but certainly not positive. For the week, the same thing can be said for both the ethanol and export reports, better but not good.
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.