Weekly Exports Released at 7:30
Oct 25, 2012
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for October 25, 2012 at 5:05 am. Grains are higher in a quiet session. The almost daily announcements of foreign purchases of US soybeans provides a boost for futures. Demand remains a major focus of traders. Yesterday we got the ethanol production and crush numbers. For two weeks now, ethanol production has run 12% under last year. Year to date is now -7.9%. USDA estimates the whole year corn for ethanol will be 10% lower than last year. Exports are another big piece of the usage pie. Ukraine confirmed yesterday they will be banning exports of wheat due to the low production caused by drought in 2012. Today’s weekly sales estimates are as follows: Wheat 350 to 450 tmt, corn 150 to 250 tmt, soybeans 650 to 850 tmt, meal 150 to 250 tmt and soyoil 15 to 35 tmt. Cash corn markets were firmer while soybeans eased at river terminals even with a jump in barge freight rate. We have been talking about production and carryover of corn for 2013-14 for several days. We put out a recommendation yesterday for subscribers of the Allendale Advisory. Sign-up online or contact your Allendale representative for complete details. Dec futures seem to be attracted to the 7.50 area where the largest open interest remains in the November options which will expire tomorrow. November soybeans have still has a large open interest remaining in the 16.00 strike. The weather forecast next week suggests less rain for Argentina and more moisture for northern Brazil. Producers have plenty of time to catch up on planting but the less than ideal conditions have traders nervous. Cash cattle trade is still in a standoff. Product remains firm with choice up .86 and select up .58. Beef values should be running into consumer resistance at these levels especially with current production rate by packers. Pork continues to slide as cutout values drop another 1.99 on Wednesday. The low yesterday of 77.62 in Dec contract will be key support. If this level is penetrated watch for more selling pressure. Our live monthly Ag Leaders Webinar
is October 30th
at 8:00 PM CDT. This month will feature a look at the soy complex with Rich Nelson, Frank La Placa, and our special guest, Al Ambrose (who will also be a speaker at Allendale Conference in January). We hope you can join us for the webinar. Registration
is free and open to everyone.
Markets as of 5:05 AM
Dec Corn +1
Nov Beans +1 3/4
Dec Wheat -1
Dec Cattle +.05
Dec Hogs +.20
Dec Dlr -.20
Dec S+P +8.25
Dec Crude +.66
Dec Gold +14.60
Allendale Advanced Charts
Did Dec Wheat break out yesterday? That is a question that we have asked multiple times over the last 4 months. Looking at the chart, we stopped yesterday’s rally at $8.95 which is one cent higher than the 10/11 pivot high of $8.94. Due to the failure to break resistance I am not convinced that we have done enough to say we are making a move higher but evidence is mounting that we may be on our way…Frank La Placa
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
China: Imports of soybeans during the month of September totaled 4.97 million tonnes. That represents a 20% increase over last year according to the General Administration of Customs.
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