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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Weekly Exports Released at 7:30

Oct 25, 2012


Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for October 25, 2012 at 5:05 am. Grains are higher in a quiet session. The almost daily announcements of foreign purchases of US soybeans provides a boost for futures. Demand remains a major focus of traders. Yesterday we got the ethanol production and crush numbers. For two weeks now, ethanol production has run 12% under last year. Year to date is now -7.9%. USDA estimates the whole year corn for ethanol will be 10% lower than last year. Exports are another big piece of the usage pie. Ukraine confirmed yesterday they will be banning exports of wheat due to the low production caused by drought in 2012. Today’s weekly sales estimates are as follows: Wheat 350 to 450 tmt, corn 150 to 250 tmt, soybeans 650 to 850 tmt, meal 150 to 250 tmt and soyoil 15 to 35 tmt.  Cash corn markets were firmer while soybeans eased at river terminals even with a jump in barge freight rate. We have been talking about production and carryover of corn for 2013-14 for several days. We put out a recommendation yesterday for subscribers of the Allendale Advisory. Sign-up online or contact your Allendale representative for complete details. Dec futures seem to be attracted to the 7.50 area where the largest open interest remains in the November options which will expire tomorrow. November soybeans have still has a large open interest remaining in the 16.00 strike. The weather forecast next week suggests less rain for Argentina and more moisture for northern Brazil. Producers have plenty of time to catch up on planting but the less than ideal conditions have traders nervous. Cash cattle trade is still in a standoff. Product remains firm with choice up .86 and select up .58. Beef values should be running into consumer resistance at these levels especially with current production rate by packers. Pork continues to slide as cutout values drop another 1.99 on Wednesday. The low yesterday of 77.62 in Dec contract will be key support. If this level is penetrated watch for more selling pressure. Our live monthly Ag Leaders Webinar is October 30th at 8:00 PM CDT. This month will feature a look at the soy complex with Rich Nelson, Frank La Placa, and our special guest, Al Ambrose (who will also be a speaker at Allendale Conference in January). We hope you can join us for the webinar. Registration is free and open to everyone.
Markets as of 5:05 AM
Dec Corn    +1
Nov Beans   +1 3/4
Dec Wheat   -1
Dec Cattle +.05
Dec Hogs    +.20
Dec Dlr     -.20
Dec S+P     +8.25
Dec Crude   +.66
Dec Gold    +14.60
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Did Dec Wheat break out yesterday? That is a question that we have asked multiple times over the last 4 months. Looking at the chart, we stopped yesterday’s rally at $8.95 which is one cent higher than the 10/11 pivot high of $8.94. Due to the failure to break resistance I am not convinced that we have done enough to say we are making a move higher but evidence is mounting that we may be on our way…Frank La Placa 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
China: Imports of soybeans during the month of September totaled 4.97 million tonnes. That represents a 20% increase over last year according to the General Administration of Customs.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.


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