Sep 30, 2014
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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Will USDA Help With Actual Hog Count?

Mar 28, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for March 28, 2014 at 4:35 am.  

Grain futures are mixed with corn and wheat lower, soybeans higher.

The next two trading sessions should see position adjusting as we go into the release of key USDA reports. This afternoon, the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report will be watched closely by grain and livestock traders. On Monday the USDA will release Quarterly Stocks and the Prospective Planting for corn and soybeans.

The Hogs and Pigs report could have an impact on corn usage for the second and third quarters as well as provide traders with some real data on PEDv effect on hog supplies.

Quarterly Stocks report is the amount of grain available on March 1st. The USDA contacts over 84,000 farm operators and 8,800 commercial operations and ask for supplies on hand as March 1. Listen to the March Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar, later today, which has the interview with Lance Honig, USDA Crops Branch Chief.

The wheat market is in the middle of a weather market as the southern plains remains very dry. A forecast for any rain in the southern plains will likely have a huge impact on wheat prices at the CME.

Reuters – U.S. energy markets cannot absorb the levels of biofuels required by law to be blended into the fuel supply in 2014, Environmental Protection Agency head Gina McCarthy said on Thursday, defending a controversial proposal to slash the target for this year.

Analysts estimates for Hog and Pig Report to be released at 2:00 pm today. 

                                      Ranges     Average     Mln head 
All hogs March          92.0-97.1        94.5       61.493
Kept for breeding      98.9-100.7       99.6         5.813
Kept for market        91.2-96.9          94.0       55.683

Summer months of lean hog futures are preparing for significant reductions in hog supplies. The cash hog index and the nearby April futures contract have move to near even. Pork cutout values are down 1.16 on Thursday.

Cash cattle traded mostly $2.00 higher early this week. Futures are trading well below the cash price which is providing underlining support for the April contract. Cattle traders will be keeping a close eye on the report this afternoon. Beef cutout values were lower with choice is down 2.51 and select is down 2.10. The CME Feeder Index is 177.98.

Call your Allendale Representative to discuss last minute position adjustments going into these critical reports. Expect volatility on Monday.

Markets as of 4:35 AM

  • May Corn    -2 1/4
  • May Beans   +3 1/4
  • May Wheat   -7 1/2
  • Apr Cattle  -.12
  • Apr Hogs    +1.25
  • Jun Dlr     +.11
  • Jun S&P     +6.00
  • May Crude   +.35
  • Apr Gold    +1.20

Chart of the Day

Daily Chart

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