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The Grain Report

RSS By: Sean Lusk, AgWeb.com

Market updates from Walsh Trading.

DAN BURKE'S DAILY OPTION RUN 10/24/13

Oct 24, 2013

DAN BURKE'S DAILY OPTION RUN 10/24/13

GRAINS                                

MACRO OUTLOOK:  My outlook for grains is consistent and published daily.  Much like yesterday, the chicago nov beans found a daily high at 1318.  Look for support to come in at 1260 and then 1215.  I like selling nov beans and leaning on 1330 as resistance.  The Chicago Dec corn moved lower and settled at 440 1/2.  Support can be found at 428 and then 412.  I like selling dec corn on rallies.  Today’s settle below 446 should encourage a try for 428.  After 428, the next level of support can be found at 416.  The chicago dec wheat is my favorite leveraged play in the grains.  Support can be found at 690.  I find comfort in getting long and leaning on the 690 level of support.  704 is resistance and then 738.  Please keep in mind, while looking below, that commissions and fees are not included in the cost of the option.  In certain markets, I propose blending in the mini contract as a conservative approach to selling rallies (nov beans 2013) and buying dips (dec wheat 2013).  Good trading and stay vigilant. 

SOYBEAN HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

NOV '13

DEC13

MAR14

MAY14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

1290P

1.5

81.50

1260P

14.0

700.00

1220P

31.4

1575.0

1200P

39.0

1950.0

 

 

 

1250P

11.4

575.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1240P

9.4

475.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

NOV'13

DEC '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

1320C

3.7

193.75

1370C

9.0

450.00

1540C

5.2

262.50

1600C

5.0

250.0

 

 

 

1400C

5.0

250.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1420C

3.2

162.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CORN HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

NOV'13

DEC '13

MAR’14

MAY’14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

440P

2.4

125.0

440P

12.1

606.25

410P

7.4

375.0

410P

9.7

493.75

 

 

 

430P

7.5

381.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

400P

1.5

81.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

NOV '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

445C

0.7

43.75

460C

5.1

256.25

510C

6.5

331.25

520C

10.7

543.75

 

 

 

475C

2.3

118.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WHEAT HEDGE OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCERS

NOV '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

695P

2.7

143.75

675P

7.2

362.50

630P

7.1

356.25

640P

14.1

706.25

 

 

 

660P

3.5

181.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

END USERS

NOV '13

DEC '13

MAR '14

MAY '14

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

STRIKE

PRICE

COST

700C

2.1

106.25

715C

9.6

487.50

770C

15.0

750

820C

14.2

712.50

 

 

 

720C

8.3

418.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

725C

7.1

356.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

RISK DISCLOSURE: THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING.  THIS REPORT IS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION AND ALL TRANSACTIONS INCLUDE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THE USE OF A STOP-LOSS ORDER MAY NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE INTENDED AMOUNT.  WHILE CURRENT EVENTS, MARKET ANNOUNCEMENTS AND SEASONAL FACTORS ARE TYPICALLY BUILT INTO FUTURES PRICES, A MOVEMENT IN THE CASH MARKET WOULD NOT NECESSARILY MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE RELATED FUTURES AND OPTIONS CONTRACTS.

Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of Walsh Trading Inc. or its staff.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Walsh Trading Inc. Copyright © Walsh Trading Inc.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. Support refers to an area on a chart where buy orders may be clustered. Resistance is an area where there may be sell orders.  Fibonacci retracement is named after a 12th century Italian mathematician and based on the theory that prices rise or fall by predictable amounts after reaching a high or low.

Technical analysis, popularized by Charles Dow, creator of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1896, is based on the theory that a chart of the price of financial assets contains clues to future movements.

Bollinger bands, developed by John Bollinger in the 1980s, are used by technical analysts to identify the turning point in an asset’s trajectory. The limits represent two standard deviations from the 20-day moving average, implying that the likelihood of a currency moving outside the band is rare.

For more market information, Dan can be reached at 312.957.8248 or via e-mail at dburke@walshtrading.com. 

Stay Green!  Go Paperless and fill out this online application in order to trade Futures and Options —

https://accountforms.rcgdirect.com/

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