Tim Hannagan's Weekly Grain Report for July 11, 2014
Jul 11, 2014
Hi this is Tim Hannagan it's Friday, July 11. November soybeans made a new low today of 10.85 prior to today’s 11 a.m. USDA crop report which is almost a $1.60 off the June high. On the demand side our last weekly export sales report showed most of our demand is going for new crop delivery after September 1. So demand is not a driving force here. Important to note that after monthly crop report by the USDA we often see profit-taking profits. Should the shorts that are profitable in November contracts in soybeans decide to take their fair share we could see a move all the way back to 11.45. But should we continue here midmonth to price in weather and its impact on yields then we should expect that a close below 10.90 will set up the next moved to support of 10.50. December corn is sitting right on its long-term trend line that goes all the way back to November of 3.90. A close under and 3.65 is next. But should this hold funds look to take profits for the month-end we could expect to move back to 4.10 possibly 4.22. As per wheat we were at 5.60 last January and funds were short a near record 120 thousand contracts leading to a short covering rally back to 7.40. As we entered last week we hit 5.60 with funds only short 61,000 contracts leaving over 40,000 contracts to come to the market. We expect the European nations loaded with high protein milling wheat to continue to under bid the U.S. making us a third or fourth port of origin for milling wheat. Our wheat low is not in yet.
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