Walsh Commercial Hedging 12/13/12
Dec 13, 2012
The complex settled on a mixed note with March wheat closing just above its 200 day moving average of 807 ¾ at 808 ½, down 3 ½ cents. Overnight Japan bought 110,855 MT of US wheat and the weekly export sales for wheat was 518,600 MT for the current marketing year which was in the high end of estimates of 300-600,000 MT which gave wheat a boost at 7:30. However, it wasn’t enough as wheat drifted lower and when it went through its 200 day moving average/support level more technical selling emerged driving it to a low of $8.01 ½ on the day before bargain hunters jumped into the market. March corn continued its 6 day slide finishing down 5 ¼ at $7.20 ¼. March corn did hold its support level of $7.15 for the day. However, given yesterday’s poor ethanol stocks report and even though weekly export sales did fall in line within market expectations, demand for corn remains weak. Weekly corn export sales were 258,900 MT for the current marketing year. The trade was looking for 150-400,000 MT. With the weather in Argentina dry for the rest of week the trade doesn’t have any bullish news for corn. However, there is rain in the forecast for Argentina next week and this will closely watched. The tepid pace of exports for grains cannot be said for beans and bean products. As expected, soybean sales were impressive coming in at a marketing year high of 1,319,400 MT. China was responsible for over 75% of this week’s sale. Cumulative sales now stand at 81% of the USDA benchmark. However, January beans couldn’t manage to push through its 50 day moving average of $14.90 and bounced around for the rest of the day before finishing up only 3 cents at $14.76 ½. The favorable weather in Brazil is keeping January beans in its range bound trade for the week of $14.53-$14.90. Tomorrow, the trade will be watching the NOPA monthly soybean-crush report that comes out at 7:30. The November crush is estimated at 157.4 million bushels. Analysts’ expectations on the November crush range from 147.5-164.0 million bushels.
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