|Avg. Hedge Position (AHP)
|AHP 1 Month Ago
|AHP 3-Week Change
The average hedge positions are a composite from the eight advisor services included in Archer Financial Services’ Ag Hedge program. Hedge positions from each advisory service are calculated as a net of futures and cash positions as well as options that are determined to be in the money.
This information is provided by Scott Harms of Archer Financial Services.
What is the long-term outlook for corn demand?
It’s time to accept reality. Everything has come down except the gauntlet itself, in terms of stagnant demand for corn. My message to farmers: sell early and sell often.
Even with prices much below last year’s farmers still need to be thinking about selling corn and taking advantage of any rallies that would happen to come from Friday’s round of USDA reports or any other weather calamities.
How do you expect USDA to adjust the national average yields for corn and soybeans on Jan. 10?
We could probably see 161 bu./acre or better for national corn yield. Had we had normal weather in 2013, that number could have been closer to 170 bu./acre.
For soybeans, we are predicting 46 bu./acre . We believe bean yields could be a near record, which is astounding when you think about the dryness in August and September.
The advances in genetics and agronomic practices could give us some very hefty yields in the future, if Mother Nature allows it.
How much grain should farmers have in the bin? When should they be selling?
Based on our modeling, corn prices could decline to $3.75 by spring planting. With this dismal price outlook farmers need to be making regular sales. This bear market isn’t something that will leave us anytime soon unless we have weather problems. His firm is 80% sold in 2013 corn and 85% sold in 2013 soybeans.
If someone wanted to hang on to 20% of what we would call gambling stocks, we think that’s fine. But at this stage, we wouldn’t want to have any more than 20% of old stocks in the bin. If you are still holding old-crop corn, you are really just betting on weather problems, either in South America or the U.S.
For 2014, we are 65% sold in corn and soybeans, making us more heavily sold at this time of the year since 2005. We are even 15% to 25% sold on 2015 corn.
Read more from Basse: Don’t Let Low Prices Deter Your Corn Sales
Have a question for Dan?
Contact him at firstname.lastname@example.org or 312-408-0045.