Markets Now: Has the Cattle Market Put in an Intermediate Top?
AgDay Markets Now - Scott Varilek
Live and feeder cattle futures close higher Monday with near to record cash prices and higher boxed beef values.
Last week's cash trade was higher and hit record highs in the south. The weighted average in Kansas was $185.79 and blowing through the record set June 9, 2023, while the Texas weighted average was $185.94 taking out the record set on November 3, 2023. Nebraska's weighted average dressed price was $297.54 which is still under the record set in June of last year. The five area weighted average was $187.47, up $2.35.
However, the futures market fails to take out last week's highs and negate chart reversals scored last Thursday. That day live cattle made new highs for the move on bullish news and then scored an ugly chart reversal.
So, have the live cattle futures scored an intermediate top? Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, thinks that market has put in its spring high and may have a tough time challenging last week's highs unless cash trade is sharply higher again this week.
He is also concerned that packers have cut kills to prop up their margin at the same time weights have been on the rise with high priced feeders, lower priced corn and tremendous feedlot gains with the mild winter weather. Dressed weights on steers were up five pounds last week and are 20 pounds over a year ago.
Feeder cattle cash prices in the country have stayed strong but futures charts also put in highs before live cattle.
However, Varilek is optimistic about bullish fundaments, including tight cattle supplies possibly pushing prices back above the record highs set in September of last year.
