The Long View: Grain Market Expectations To 2030
Increasing demand and economic recovery create stable outlook
The COVID-19 pandemic delivered a lasting blow to the global economy. As it slowly recovers, rising global demand for diversified diets and protein will continue to stimulate import demand for feed grains and soybeans, according to USDA’s Agricultural Projections to 2030.
Increased demand for these crops — as well as for wheat, rice and cotton — will be coupled with rising competition from countries such as Brazil, Argentina, the European Union (EU) and the Black Sea region.
Although strong trade competition continues, USDA reports U.S. commodities remain generally competitive in global agricultural markets.
Agricultural exports are expected to grow at an annual rate averaging 2% per year for the rest of the decade. For 2021, U.S. total agricultural exports are projected to increase by 12% to within $350 million of the 2014 record level because of higher prices and stronger export quantities of major field crops
FOCUS ON DEMAND
Corn prices are projected to fall from $3.65 per bushel in 2021/22 to $3.55 in 2024/25, but then remain stable. Growth in domestic corn demand is strongest for feed and residual use, driven by domestic meat production to meet both domestic and export demand for beef, pork and poultry.
Soybean prices are projected to start at $10 per bushel in 2021/22, and to fall through 2025/26 before slowly rising the remainder of the projection period. USDA projects Brazil will take the biggest share of China’s future soybean demand, but U.S. exports and prices also benefit from revived Chinese demand.
