A Look at Commodity Baseline Projections Re: Senate Farm Bill Draft

April 23, 2012 12:33 PM
 

via a special arrangement with Informa Economics, Inc.

Soybeans clear budget winner in Senate farm bill proposal


NOTE: This column is copyrighted material, therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.


The following budget baseline numbers, reportedly from the Senate Agriculture Committee, are how various program crops fare regarding the pending Senate draft farm bill. As is quite evident in the projections below, soybean producers show the most favorable budget scores – largely because of the move from base acres to planted acres in making proposed new farm program payments via the Ag Risk Coverage (ARC) program.

It is also evident that wheat, upland cotton, peanuts and especially rice growers are more negatively impacted by the new proposed farm policy.

Commodity Baseline

Crop

Existing Baseline 2013-22

Dif. Between Base Acres and Planted Acres

Percent Dif. Between Base and Planted Ac.

Baseline Adj. For Planted Vs. Base

Baseline Adj. For $15 bil. Cut

Baseline Adj. For $15 Bil. Cut & Planted

90-80 Election With Ref. Prices & Ins.

 

In billion dollars unless specified otherwise

Corn

22.179

+5.551

+7%

23.655

15.969

18.451

17.174

Soybeans

7.618

+26.797

+54%

11.709

5.485

9.133

9.442

Wheat

11.131

-19.411

-27%

8.135

8.014

6.345

4.496

Up. Cotton

6.843

-6.669

-38%

4.255

4.927

3.319

4.405

Rice

4.336

-1.229

-29%

3.088

3.122

2.409

1.319

Peanuts

1.013

-0.970

-7%

0.945

0.729

0.737

0.913

Total Payments

53.120

-20.808

-8%

48.778

38.247

38.047

 

Bottom line:

Corn: 23% decline
Soybeans: 24% increase
Wheat: 60% decline
Rice: 70% decline
Peanuts: 40% decline (after crop insurance removed)

The figures include crop insurance costs for peanuts without doing that for any other crops besides cotton, where they apparently had no choice. Some label this "creative math."


 

NOTE: This column is copyrighted material, therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.


 


 

 

 

 

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