This rally is not about prices, it’s about food, says Jerry Gulke of the Gulke Group. China now buys 60% of all the soybeans exported in the world, and their purchases of soybean oil may have been the catalyst for this week’s soybean strength. "The world economy is picking up and if China’s population brings its diet close to ours, there may not be enough food in the world," he says.
Wheat breaking out to the upside opens the door to prices at least equal to the previous highs made in August, Gulke says. "It started with the Russian crop burning in the fields; now it’s prices on fire. Maybe we won’t get back to the levels seen in 2008 with 800 million bushels of ending stocks, but it’s dry in soft red winter country and who knows what La Nina will bring to other parts of the wheat belt.
"If you want to see excitement, look at rice, or rapeseed, or soyoil. We can ill afford a problem this year in any crop in any major producing country," he says. "When markets turn higher we have to be careful not to underestimate their potential. It’s a great time to be a farmer."