Grain prices are trending lower as harvest kicks off. Jerry Gulke provides advice for farmers with un-priced corn and soybeans.
Even though many fields were planted late this year, harvest has kicked off across the country.
While it is still early in the season, more than 100 farmers have submitted their corn yield reports to AgWeb’s Corn Harvest Map. The current national average is 157.7 bu./acre, and these reports encompass 60,000 acres. USDA’s September Crop Production report pegs the national corn yield average at 155.3 bu./acre.
As the harvest reports continue to trickle in, corn and soybean prices continue to decrease.
"Prices dropped like a rock this week," says Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group. On Friday, December 2013 corn closed at $4.51.
"We are now a penny below the 80% level of $5.65, meaning anybody with a normal APH yield will get an indemnity payment. Having the price of grain drop so much makes for an easy decision."
Hear Gulke's full audio analysis:
Gulke says producers with a high level of crop insurance coverage should hold off on making any cash grain sales at current prices. "Go combine your corn and see where prices are at in a few weeks. Don’t make the big mistake and sell your crops at low prices, if you have an indemnity payment coming."
Sell Some Soybeans
For soybeans, on the other hand, Gulke says farmers should not write current prices off as "low."
"I’ve sold my cash beans up to 80% of what I think I’m going to get and the rest are on futures," he says. "I don’t see the world paying $14 a bushel for all the beans that North and South American can produce – it’s too a high price."
Gulke’s advice is to not miss a good pricing opportunity, even if your soybean yields will be low. "The last thing you want to do is produce half a soybean crop and not sell them at $13 and then prices to go $11 again," he says. "Beans are at high prices. Sell some now to meet your cash flow needs."
Have a question for Jerry? Contact him at 815-721-4705 or firstname.lastname@example.org.
For More Information
See current market prices in AgWeb's Market Center
Submit your own yield reports to AgWeb’s Corn Harvest Map