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Have Farmers Lost Trust In USDA?

June 30, 2011
 

 

This morning’s acreage reports have farmers across the country scratching their heads, many losing faith in USDA’s accuracy.
 
The reports, developed from an early June survey, reveled the corn planted area for all purposes in 2011 is estimated at 92.3 million acres, up 5 percent from last year, and the second highest planted acreage in the United States since 1944, behind only the 93.5 million acres planted in 2007. In preparation for the reports, a discussion board thread was started on AGWEB.com early this morning.
 
"I just threw my rose colored glasses into the trash compactor. Just when I thought we might be able to start trusting USDA to get it right they throw us an out of the ball park corn acres number," wrote BinswOH, an avid AGWEB.com user. "92.3 million acres of corn planted? Are they using estimated seed sales and forgetting to back out the seed sold for replant? Or are they assuming they will make it up by lowering the average acre yield to 150? I have too many questions after reading the report this morning."
 
The USDA estimates corn acreage in Ohio and the Dakotas to have increased over last year as well. Many farmers across the country are wondering how this could be true.
 
"Maybe my eyes aren't working right but it looks like more acres than last year in Ohio and the Dakotas," wrote iaDave, corn farmer and discussion board enthusiast. "I just don't see how that can be from what I have heard."
 
The developing flood situation in the stacked northern states is far from over which is causing farmers disdain in regards to the accuracy of acreage numbers released by USDA for the Dakotas this morning.
 
"I'm pretty sure they are smoking their socks on the Dakota’s," Iowa55 says. "I was up there two and a half weeks ago and most of the acres that were planted just are not going to make anything in South Dakota. Not all acres were bad but 75 percent were hurt and 25 percent were as good as failed."
 
What crops have been planted are not likely to make decent yields because of the excess water that is destined to reach fields throughout North Dakota and South Dakota as the snow pack melts this summer.
 
While many farmers in Ohio planted more corn later than originally anticipated, growing a good crop in the region is hopeful at best.
 
"Many acres were planted just because of the crop insurance guarantees, with no real hopes of a harvest or proper fertilizer program," wrote one frequent user, Iowa55, concerning the Ohio crop. "But the acres will count in June, they just will never amount to much or be harvested."
 
Regardless of the perceived inaccuracies of the today’s reports the markets will react in line with the acreage and stock numbers released by the government agency.
 
"For today’s trade we are going to trade dramatically lower corn is 40 to 50 cents lower in the over the counter market," says Tommi Grasafi of Indiana Grain Company.
 
With regard the accuracy of the bearish report Grasafi says that it is a government report but things are likely to change. The price of corn is being driven by the report this morning and will likely continue on that path until the conversation turns to weather over the weekend.

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RELATED TOPICS: Corn, USDA

 
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COMMENTS (11 Comments)

Cliff2 - Willmar, MN
Remember that In 1993 the USDA had their head in the sand until the November crop report...............A friend told me that we should have know it would be a bearish report after they took crude oil from the reserve.......Listening to the radio on Friday it was like the USDA released a press release on with all the corn that food prices would be going lower.........Knee high by the fourth of July is an old wives tale, and lots of corn in Minnesota still isn't knee high by the fourth..........
1:55 PM Jul 4th
 
Cliff2 - Willmar, MN
Remember that In 1993 the USDA had their head in the sand until the November crop report...............A friend told me that we should have know it would be a bearish report after they took crude oil from the reserve.......Listening to the radio on Friday it was like the USDA released a press release on with all the corn that food prices would be going lower.........Knee high by the fourth of July is an old wives tale, and lots of corn in Minnesota still isn't knee high by the fourth..........
1:55 PM Jul 4th
 
WCMN Farmer - MN
Here in my area we have some of the better looking corn in our state and it is not even knee high. Went on a 375 mile round trip last week to south east MN. I would not trade any of my corn fields for what I saw. When the lead guy at USDA has to try and convince people as to the "correctness" of the numbers the same day as release and then an announcement that some states will be re-surveyed it tells you that even they lack confidence in their ability to get it right. This is just another classic example of distrust in another government agency.
8:44 PM Jun 30th
 
PullMyFinger - Chappell, NE
Losing faith? Well - DUH!!!!!
7:33 PM Jun 30th
 
Mark - Sigel, IL
Last year we took a 200 mile trip crop checking, 1 out of 3 fields were hurt. Yesterday we took a 250 mile trip, 1 out of 3 fields are not planted. Yes there are good fields of corn & beans. but alot of acres not planted & under water. Glad we added 50,000 bushels of storage. Because USDA will change their mind.
7:02 PM Jun 30th
 
Mark - Sigel, IL
Last year we took a 200 mile trip crop checking, 1 out of 3 fields were hurt. Yesterday we took a 250 mile trip, 1 out of 3 fields are not planted. Yes there are good fields of corn & beans. but alot of acres not planted & under water. Glad we added 50,000 bushels of storage. Because USDA will change their mind.
7:02 PM Jun 30th
 
Curt - Geneseo, IL
This is just another example of the government manipulating the markets to try to control the value of grain. It happens every year, they just didn't want a repeat of last years report.

WhyMeJake- The guys in Chicago obviously believe that corn can grow on concrete if it rains enough??? They too have missed the boat. Or maybe they should get in one and go see the damage from the flood waters.

This report shows that the USDA has no clue that the levees are bursting in the Missouri, the COPRS breached the Mississippi and none of the land along those areas are going to be productive. Whats more important, crop land or a town built on a island in the Mississippi river??? I guess EATING in less of a priority that saving a town that wasn't yet in total danger.


4:17 PM Jun 30th
 
WhyMeJake
More total acres planted than last year? Complete and utter BS, I don't think this has caused anyone around here to lose faith in the government though. Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny and a trustworthy government? PLEASE!!!!

Let's put them all on Social Security when they retire, take away the massive pensions and medical benefits and put them all on Obama-care. I think it will take about a day to fix all of those problems. They get only one term and then get them out before they figure out how Washington is run.

Cost savings? Reward anyone that can cut spending by giving them 10% of the first year's savings. Get out those military cost books with them expensive toilet seats and hundred dollar hammers.

I don't think the people in Chicago are dumb enough to believe these numbers!
3:59 PM Jun 30th
 
Daniel - Pine City, MN
I don't think they know what is going on out here in rural America. They are out of touch.
2:13 PM Jun 30th
 
NAGEL
SO FAR NO ONE HAS MENTIONED WEEKLY EXPORT SALES, WWHICH WERE GOOD ENOUGH TO MOVE THE MARKET HIGHER IF WE HAD NOT HAD THIS USDA REPORT. ALSO THE $ IS TRADING SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER. THE USDA REPORT IS YESTERDAY'S NEWS. THE LOWER $ AND EXPORT SALES ARE CURRENT NEWS. WHY DO WE CALL THIS A FUTURES MARKET?​
11:31 AM Jun 30th
 



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