Soybeans rose for a third day in Chicago as dry weather in the U.S. Midwest may hurt crop yields, boosting speculation the country’s government will lower its production estimate for the world’s biggest grower.
After limited showers over the weekend, at least 40 percent of Midwest soybeans continue to suffer notable moisture stress and beans in many areas are being pushed to maturity by recent warm and dry weather, with significant yield recovery unlikely, Commodity Weather Group wrote in a report today. U.S. farmers may harvest 3.13 billion bushels of soybeans, 3.7 percent less than the nation’s Department of Agriculture forecast in August, a Bloomberg survey shows. The agency is set to update its estimate on Sept. 12.
"The USDA is the focus this week," Luke Mathews, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said by phone from Sydney today. "We’re expecting another downgrade to U.S. soybean production prospects."
Soybeans for delivery in November added 0.3 percent to $13.72 a bushel by 8:01 a.m. on the Chicago Board of Trade. Prices rose for a fifth week last week, the best run since May. Futures surged 13 percent last month as hot weather in the Midwest harmed crops.
Dryness will remain widespread in the central and western Midwest in the next 10 days, particularly western Illinois, northern Missouri, Iowa and Minnesota, curbing yield potential, MDA Weather Systems said Sept. 6.
"Too many Midwest acres will continue to experience minimal moisture during the next week and time is running out for moisture to provide benefit," Duane Lowry, the publisher of Early Market News, wrote in an online comment. "Crop production potential has been declining and continues to decline, with trader understanding and embrace of this reality beginning to gain traction."
Corn for delivery in December fell 0.5 percent to $4.66 a bushel and wheat for the same delivery month declined 0.6 percent to $6.4375 a bushel. Milling wheat for delivery in November traded on NYSE Liffe in Paris dropped 0.5 percent to 187.75 euros ($248.07) a metric ton.