RICE: The 2013/14 all rice supply and use balance sheet is unchanged from last month. Small revisions are made to the 2013/14 rice by-class supply and use balance sheets. Rice by-class 2013/14 beginning stocks forecasts are changed based on small adjustments to 2012/13 rice by-class balance sheets.
Long-grain rice 2013/14 beginning stocks are raised 1.0 million cwt to 21.4 million resulting from a reduction in the 2012/13 export forecast now projected at 76.0 million. Combined medium- and short-grain 2013/14 beginning stocks are lowered 1.0 million cwt to 10.5 million resulting from an increase in the 2012/13 export forecast now projected at 32.0 million.
Rough rice exports for 2012/13 are lowered 1.0 million cwt to 35.0 million and combined milled and brown rice exports are raised 1.0 million to 73.0 million. No other changes are made to 2012/13 and 2013/14 U.S. rice supply and use balance sheets except for season-average farm price forecasts.
The 2013/14 U.S. long-grain rice season-average farm price is projected at $13.90 to $14.90 per cwt, up 10 cents per cwt on each end from a month ago and compares to a revised $14.30 to $14.50 per cwt for 2012/13.
The 2013/14 combined medium- and short-grain rice season-average farm price is $15.80 to $16.80 per cwt, an increase of 30 cents per cwt on each end from last month and compares to a revised $16.00 to $16.20 per cwt for 2012/13. The 2013/14 U.S. all rice season-average farm price is projected at $14.50 to $15.50 per cwt, up 20 cents per cwt on each end from a month ago and compares to a revised $14.80 to $15.00 per cwt for 2012/13.
Global 2013/14 rice supply and use is little changed from a month ago.
Global rice production is projected at a record 479.2 million tons, down less than 100,000 tons from last month. Global 2013/14 exports are lowered 0.5 million tons to 38.4 million due to a decrease for Thailand. Thailand’s export forecasts for 2012/13 and 2013/14 are each lowered 0.5 million to 7.5 and 8.0 million, respectively. Thailand’s 2012/13 export pace has been slow due to uncompetitive prices and expectations that the current situation will continue into the new marketing year which begins in January 2014.
Import forecasts for Nigeria are lowered both for 2012/13 and 2013/14. The imposition of high import tariffs by Nigeria and an expected larger 2013/14 rice crop will likely slow the pace of rice imports. Global 2013/14 consumption is lowered 0.3 million tons, primarily due to smaller consumption forecast for Nigeria. Global ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected at 108.6 million tons, up 0.8 million from last month, due primarily to an increase for Thailand.
Coverage, Analysis of the June 12 USDA Reports
See all of the data, coverage and analysis of the WASDE and Crop Production reports.