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Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
There is no question that corn yield potential declines with delayed planting AFTER optimal dates pass due to a number of factors, including: a shorter growing season, greater insect & disease pressure, and higher risk of hot, dry conditions during pollination. BUT simply stated we are not yet at that point! Certainly some acres to the north will be lost to flooding and late planting (maybe as many as 2-3 million), but a rebound in yield out of Iowa and Illinois will do much more to than just offset those losses. Consider the facts below:
Point is 2-3 million acres loss up in areas like North & South Dakota, where yields at best will average 135 bushels per acre, amounts to a reduction of between 200 to 400 million bushels. Throw in some areas in Minnesota and Nebraska and maybe you push closer to a 500-600 million bushel loss. But if yields in Iowa and Illinois snap back to any extent it dwarf's these losses. A rebound in Illinois yields to just the 150 level on 12.5 million harvested acres amounts to a production increase of 1.875 BILLION bushels. A 160 type yield out of Illinois will generate more than 2.0 billion in supply. Same scenario in Iowa, a jump in yields back to just 155 bushels per acre on 13 million harvested will generate 2.015 billion bushels. Now you can see why the big players in the trade are giving more attention to the replenishing of soil moisture levels in Iowa and Illinois opposed to the flooding threats, delayed planting to the North and thoughts they may lose 1-3 million of their corn acres. For a risk free 30 day trial to my daily thoughts CLICK HERE.
So you're saying that IL had a 0 yield last year??
The current IL planting progress points to the states yield being at or over trendline 60% of the time. The states production is targeted at trenline or better only 40% of the time. So it seems as the roots get wet less acres endup seeing the combine.