Aug 21, 2014
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Current Marketing Thoughts

RSS By: Kevin Van Trump, AgWeb.com

Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.

Soybeans remain the mystery moving forward!!

Sep 11, 2013

Will the US yield fall to sub-40 bushel levels? How will the USDA use avg. pod weights? Will the Chinese keep their current importing pace? Will harvested acres eventually be cut by another 500,000 plus? Will South American weather cooperate and allow yet another record number of soybean acres to go in the ground? Will the gap at $13.31^4 on the NOV13 bean charts eventually be filled?  These are all good questions. Many bears are complaining that the trade is simply too focused on the production problems in Iowa. Sighting that areas in the Delta and Ohio River Valley are seeing extremely good yields and could help offset the losses. Before basing your decisions on the good yields in the fringe states make sure you know and understand the numbers:

  • Iowa is expected to harvest 9,430,000 acres of soybeans. Keep in mind their crop conditions have fallen from 58% of the crop being rated as GD/EX on July 15th to now just 33% rated GD/EX this past Monday.  Down -25%
  • Illinois is expected to harvest 9,350,000 acresTheir crop conditions have fallen from 74% of the crop being rated GD/EX on Aug 5th to now just 49% reported GD/EX this past Monday. Down -25%
  • Minnesotta is expected to harvest 6,630,000 acres. Their crop conditions have fallen from 65% of the crop being rated GD/EX on July 22nd to now just 51% reported GD/EX this past Monday. Down -14%
  • Missouri is expected to harvest 5,640,000 acres. Their crop conditions have fallen from 59% of the crop being rated GD/EX on July 1st to now just 36% reported GD/EX this past Monday. down -23%
  • Indiana is expected to harvest 5,230,000 acres. Their crop conditions have fallen from 76% of the crop being rated GD/EX on Aug 12th to now just 55% reported GD/EX this past Monday. Down -21% 
  • Top 5 States in terms of planted acres for soybeans all listed above.These five states equal close to 50% of our entire US soybean acreage.

 

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