EHedger Closing Grain Commentary 4/14/2010
Apr 14, 2010
|June live cattle
|June lean hogs
Thank you for all who attended the April 9th supply/demand webinar. It is now available on our website (www.ehedger.com) for your review. You can review it by clicking on the icon found on the home page.
Grain markets closed mixed for the day. It was an interesting session that saw buyers emerge and push corn 10 cents higher, beans and wheat 6 cents higher at one point. Despite this midday strength, prices backed off into the close and even settled lower in the wheat market. The outside markets were one of the factors for today’s continued strength. The dollar was lower and trading just above the $80 level on thoughts that the US Fed may not raise interest rates. Meanwhile, crude oil was roughly $2 higher and the financial markets were at new contract highs.
The March NOPA crush came out as 149.6 mil bu. with soyoil stocks slightly lower than guesses at 2.738 bil lbs. Soybeans have been led by concerns about South America farmer selling pace and slow export movement. The crop size is still large, but the actual transportation has been slow. Soybean prices are back near the highs since the January supply/demand report. Resistance was met in May soybeans at the 200-day moving average that we talked about in yesterday’s letter. Below is a chart:
We have been hearing many friendly reports of spring fieldwork and planting progress throughout the Midwest. For the most part, weather outlooks will continue to support progress and keep a ceiling on the market. New crop corn will have difficulty sustaining a rally above $4 and the same can be said for Nov beans at $9.50-9.75. The grain market remains in mostly bearish fundamentals, but bullish money flow conditions, meaning that two-sided trade should be expected. Please call us if you have any questions.
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