EHedger Closing Grains Commentary 6/30/09
Jun 30, 2009
SETTLEMENTS 6/30
|
July 09 Corn
|
347 ¾
|
- 29 ¼
|
|
Dec 09 Corn
|
367 ¼
|
- 30
|
|
July 09 Beans
|
1225
|
+ 10
|
|
Nov 09 Beans
|
981
|
- 2 ½
|
|
July 09 Wheat
|
512 ¾
|
- 15 ¾
|
|
July 09 KC Wheat
|
572 ¼
|
- 9 ¼
|
|
July 09 Min Wheat
|
636
|
- 15 ¾
|
|
July 09 Meal
|
413.2
|
+ 1.8
|
|
July 09 Oil
|
34.87
|
- 0.91
|
Overview:
Corn closed limit down after the USDA revealed a surprise jump in US planted acreage in this morning’s acreage and stocks update. The USDA also revealed a higher-than-anticipated quarterly stocks figure that added to corn’s woes, while also revealing higher soybean acres and stocks. The full figures of today’s USDA releases are below.
Overall, corn took the heaviest hit on the day, but we believe new crop soybeans remain highly vulnerable to pressure as well going forward, and so continue to urge producers to top up sales and hedges during any rallies.
In addition to being buffeted by the USDA report, today marked the end of the quarter, so institutional money managers will have been active squaring up positions throughout the session. It’ll be interesting to see whether investors are willing to pour funds back into our arena for July following today’s active decline, or whether they’ve been scared off by the recent volatility. Only time will tell, so Wednesday’s day session will be one to watch.
As we noted above, we’ll be releasing a more detailed outlook now that the acreage jigsaw has been somewhat assembled, so look out for that sometime on Wednesday.
|
USDA June 2009 Planting Report in millions of acres (released June 30, 2009, 7:30 a.m. CST)
|
|
Crop
|
USDA June 30 Estimate
|
Average Guess
|
Range
|
USDA March 31
Prospective
Plantings
|
USDA 2008 Final
|
|
|
Corn
|
87.035
|
83.961
|
82.474 - 86.000
|
84.986
|
85.982
|
|
|
Soybeans
|
77.483
|
78.121
|
75.300 - 79.631
|
76.024
|
75.718
|
|
|
All Wheat
|
59.775
|
58.243
|
57.600 - 58.600
|
58.638
|
63.147
|
|
|
Spring Wheat
|
13.772
|
13.097
|
12.826 - 13.800
|
13.304
|
14.135
|
|
|
Durum
|
2.555
|
2.389
|
2.300 - 2.440
|
2.445
|
2.731
|
|
|
USDA June 2009 Quarterly Grain Stocks Report in billions of bushels (released June 30, 2009, 7:30 a.m. CST)
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|
Crop
|
USDA June Estimate
|
Average Guess
|
Range
|
USDA March 1, 2009 Stocks
|
|
Corn
|
4.266
|
4.178
|
4.064 - 4.321
|
6.958
|
|
Soybeans
|
0.597
|
0.585
|
0.559 - 0.620
|
1.302
|
|
Wheat
|
0.667
|
0.670
|
0.640 - 0.687
|
1.037
|
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