EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 12/21/12
Dec 21, 2012
Holiday markets continue as soybeans retrace part of the recent losses. Jan soybeans settled 22 cents higher at $14.30 ¾, March corn up 5 ½ cents at $7.02, and March wheat up 1 ½ cents at $7.92.
It was a slow news day for grains. Outside markets were sharply lower after the Republicans in the house failed to pass the "Plan B" bill. The Dow Jones futures were over 200 points lower at one point in the trading session while the dollar was sharply higher. Usually this would be bearish grains and oilseeds but they shrugged off the weakness.
The recent cancellation of soybean orders by China has resulted in a massive liquidation. Even with today’s rally we still finished 65 ¼ cents lower on the week. We will have to continue to watch demand for direction until we get to the January 11th reports.
Now that we have had one day of reprieve the selling momentum may slow. Wheat has broken enough for the US to become competitive again. This may provide underlying support now that the funds are net short wheat and liquidation no longer means SELL. Funds are still net long corn and soybeans as stated in the Commitment of Traders report.
Holiday trade is expected to be thin over the next few trading sessions so we expect grains to be choppy. With the lack of fresh fundamental news they may follow outside markets.
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