Good Morning! Paul Georgy with the early morning commentary for December 2, 2016.
Grain markets are higher on position evening as traders mull recent demand data. This mornings employment data will be watched closely by outside markets for its potential dollar and interest rate impact.
USDA's October soybean crush was reported at 175.9 million bushels late yesterday, just above the 175.4 analyst estimate. This represents a pace of 3.4% over last year, ahead of USDA's goal of 2.3%.
Weekly export sales covering sales from November 18 through Thursday the 24th were out yesterday. Corn sales totaled 761,575 metric tonnes (all 2016/17 crop). That was under the 900,000 - 1,200,000 estimate. We must also point out this was the lowest weekly corn sale in nine weeks.
Soybean sales of 1,464,998 metric tonnes (all but 66,000 were 2016/17) were just above trade estimates of 1,000,000 - 1,400,000. Current sales now total 75% of USDA's whole-year goal of 2.050 billion bushels, over the five year average of 72% by this week.
Wheat export sales totaled 490,467 metric tonnes (all but 7,000 2016/17). This was within the 300,000 - 500,000 trade expectation. Sales so far total 72% of USDA's whole-year goal of 975 million bushels. That is over the 70% five year average by this point.
Brazil's Trade Ministry reported November corn exports at 961,433 tonnes vs 1,101,854 tonnes in October. Soybean exports were reported at 316,094 tonnes in November vs. October's 1,000,000.
Egyptian wheat reserves are estimated to be sufficient for about four months according to the countries supply minister. The minister went on to say that they would hope to increase the reserve to last about six months.
Australian grain traders are estimating a 31 to 32 million tonne potential wheat crop, high than the 28.3 that USDA is currently estimating. It would also be a new record, surpassing the 29.905 posted in 2010.
Funds were estimated to have been net sellers on Thursday of 14,000 corn contracts, 5,000 soybeans, 6,000 wheat and 4,000 soymeal. They were net buyers of 7,000 soyoil.
Employment will be the focus of macro traders this morning with Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate among the data released this morning at 7:30 AM CT. Positive numbers from those reports will almost certainly signal an interest rate hike at the next Federal Reserve meeting the 13th and 14th of this month.
Will La Nina persist through 2017 causing Midwest drought? Find out from Drew Lerner of World Weather, Inc. at Allendale’s Ag Leaders Outlooks Series next month. Registration is now open. CLICK HERE
Hog traders note a seasonal in hogs is for a rally into November 30 or December 1 then a sharp break removing almost all of the late-November gains until December 17. Time will tell.
Brand new highs for this month and a half cattle market uptrend were posted today. Yesterday's $115 cash cattle sales now show a $17 rally since the October lows has been made.
Dressed beef values were higher with choice up .56 and select down .16. The CME Feeder Index is 130.51. Pork cutout value is up .99.
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