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September 2012 Archive for The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Grains Finding Pressure as USDA Report Draws Near

Sep 28, 2012

Good Morning! Steve Georgy with early morning comments for September 28, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain Markets continue to edge lower as we approach the Quarterly Stock report at 7:30. This week has once again played out to be a fairly negative week for the grains. As of the close yesterday, corn has fallen 32 cents, beans are down 51 cents and wheat has pulled back 41 cents so far this week. The main focus is the report out in a few hours. The average trade guess for corn is 1.126 billion carryout. This is a big number and could see further downside if this gets any bigger. The charts still look weak as corn continues to make new recent lows. Next support levels are 7.00 and 6.80. Beans are expected to have a carryout number of 132 million. Soybeans are more influenced right now with a potentially bigger crop than expected due to late rains this summer and better than expected harvest. The focus in beans is not the Quarterly Stock report as much but the potential big change on the supply and demand report in October.  Wheat took out good support yesterday and managed to close below it. A second close below 8.60 could find more technical selling. The average trade guess for the report this morning is 2.281 billion carryout. Wheat had the biggest decline in price yesterday for the grains and could see more selling on more of a technical level now that the charts are starting to roll over. The funds have been sellers all week and we see no reason for that to change this morning unless we see USDA come out with bullish report numbers. Corn exports were very low yesterday but beans and wheat were neutral. The US is still too high priced to be competitive with other countries. Here are prices of corn from various ports in US dollars per metric tonnes: Ukraine $231, Brazil $251, Argentina $262, and US Gulf $312. We have seen demand destruction in corn due to the drought this year and soaring prices but it seems prices need to come down get competitive once again.  
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    -10 3/4
Nov Beans   -6 3/4
Dec Wheat   -3
Oct Cattle -.55
Oct Hogs    -.10
Dec Dlr     -.06
Sep S+P     -1.00
Oct Crude   +.45
Dec Gold    +3.30
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday Dec Lean Hogs has confirmed the 9/25 high of $75.87 ½ as the new pivot high that must be closed above to resume the base and recovery. This market is still clearly in a downtrend and a retest of the double bottom at $70.00 is not out of the question…Frank La Placa 
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Often it is important to step back and view grain markets from an outside investor’s view. In that respect the recent commodity liquidation is actually mild at only 5.9%. December corn and November soybeans lead the way with a 15.2% and 12.9% decline off summer highs respectively.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Slightly Lower Trade as USDA Report Approaches

Sep 27, 2012

Good Morning! Steve Georgy with early morning comments for September 27, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are pushing lower this morning after taking out support levels yesterday. This morning USDA will release export numbers at 7:30 central time. This will be watched closely as traders still wait to see if demand is picking up. Corn estimates are between 125,000 and 300,000 tonnes, beans have a range of 600,000 – 800,000 tonnes, and wheat is expected between 300,000 – 600,000 metric tonnes. Beans and wheat have been within the trade range over the last several weeks but corn has struggled. We are watching a story closely that was released late yesterday that a group of three companies out of North Carolina have signed a deal to bring in 750,000 metric tonnes of corn from Brazil. Hog producer Prestage Farms and 2 other livestock companies made this deal due to "sky high" prices in the US. This is the largest import of corn on record and it comes after the biggest drought we have seen in half a century. The USDA is projecting corn imports at 1.9 million metric tonnes for the marketing year ending August 31st, 2013. Tomorrow is also the last day of the month and last day of the quarter. This may cause more liquidation from the funds as they continue to lighten up on positions. USDA will also release the quarterly stock number tomorrow at 7:30. The trade is expecting more bearish numbers for both corn and beans. This could lead to more pressure in the short term. The charts are negative mixed with bearish fundamentals right now. Cattle are once again trading lower and have been mostly pressured from weaker cash trade. We were hearing rumors of cash cattle trade $122 in Texas on Tuesday but there were some $123 purchased yesterday out of Kansas. The trade was expecting steady to $1 lower this week and we are seeing $3-$4 lower. Box beef finished lower yesterday with choice down .23 cents at 192.45 and select down .05 at 181.51.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    -2 3/4
Nov Beans   UNCH
Dec Wheat   -1 1/2
Oct Cattle -.27
Oct Hogs    -.15
Dec Dlr     -.06
Sep S+P     +6.50
Oct Crude   +.30
Dec Gold    +5.20
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Dec Wheat has continued its aimless sideways trading range over the last 3mos. With this market not showing much in terms of direction, we must wait for a breakout for the wheat market to show its directional hand…Frank La Placa
 
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Allendale’s monthly webinar series continues to be a success. Tuesday night we interviewed USDA’s South American meteorologist. Great insight into his thoughts on El Nino, and what it could do for yields in Argentina and Brazil, were heard. In addition, Allendale discussed cash grain marketing factors to consider such as futures, basis, and storage costs.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Grains are Retesting Recent Lows in Early Trade

Sep 26, 2012

Good Morning! Steve Georgy with early morning comments for September 26, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are trading lower once again as we get closer to the quarterly stock report on Friday. The trade volume yesterday was the lightest volume we have seen in more than a month. It has been a while since we have seen the dollar and energy markets influence the direction of the grains but we are seeing more of that this morning. The dollar is up again due to more concern over European stability. The Bank of Spain has now warned their country that Spain is in a "deep recession". This has many protesters demonstrating against the Government’s austerity drive. This is Spain’s second recession in three years. The unemployment rate has now climbed to nearly 25%. The charts for the grains continue to look weak as we move toward the recent lows in overnight trade. Corn is still trying to find an area where demand will pick up. Yesterday South Korea bought 133,000 metric tonnes of corn from South America for February delivery. This is concerning for the bulls because this means our prices are still too high. We are also hearing confirmation that an ethanol plant in MN will be shutting down. This is giving renewed concern if we start to see a trend. Cattle markets are finding support this morning after more than a $2 drop yesterday. There were rumors yesterday that cash cattle traded $122 in Texas. This is a $4 drop in cash from last week. The expectation was to see the cash markets steady to a dollar lower this week. This was concerning for the market but seems to be trying to recover this morning.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    -8
Nov Beans   -19
Dec Wheat   -9 3/4
Oct Cattle +.20
Oct Hogs    +.35
Dec Dlr     +.23
Sep S+P     UNCH
Oct Crude   -.63
Dec Gold    +.90
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday Oct Live Cattle’s dramatic momentum failure has confirmed a peak and reversal from the 9/13 $128.77 ½ high. With such a severe momentum failure on the chart, the only level of support between today and the double bottom low of $120.00  is the 7/26 $122.15 low. With a confirmed peak and reversal the trend is now down and its continuation should not surprise…Frank La Placa
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Throughout the year, USDA and the entire grain trade is always estimating "end of the marketing year" ending stock numbers. The end of the old crop year was just on August 31. Friday’s quarterly stocks report is THE report to finally solve this old crop stocks question. The average analyst estimate is for old crop corn stocks to decline from the latest USDA 1.181 billion estimate down to 1.113.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Grains are Finding a Technical Bounce

Sep 25, 2012

Good Morning! Steve Georgy with early morning comments for September 25, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are finding a slight recovery after yesterday’s selloff. Harvest progress was revealed yesterday and both corn and beans are on a record pace. For corn, the trade was looking for 41% complete but USDA said we are currently only 39% complete. This is still way ahead of the old record of 25% set in 2000. Beans are currently 22% complete with the trade looking for only 20%. The old record was also set in 2000 with 20% harvested at the time. Argentina is planting corn right now while Brazil is starting on beans. There has been concern with how dry it has been in Brazil but we should see some timely rains as planting kicks off. Brazil usually doesn’t start planting until the middle of October so this is still early. The quarterly grain stocks report will be released on Friday and will show how much grain is left over at the end of the year. This will be the final number for old crop corn and beans. On the last report, USDA pushed their estimate to 1.181 billion carryout for old crop corn. We feel that their number is pretty accurate and shouldn’t see much change on this report. The trade is looking for new crop ending stocks to increase on Friday so this may cap any significant rally in price as we get closer. Beans maybe a different story but with the current ending stock numbers we should see beans near 1675. Current supply and demand levels have the stock to use ratio at a point that beans could be undervalued. The charts are still suggesting that we could see more down side but the 1600 level may be tough to close below for now. Sign up for the Monthly Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar that starts tonight at 8:00 pm.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    +1
Nov Beans   +8
Dec Wheat   +1/2
Oct Cattle -.07
Oct Hogs    +.35
Dec Dlr     +.06
Sep S+P     UNCH
Oct Crude   +.66
Dec Gold    +5.50
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday Nov Soybeans fulfilled its Head and Shoulders projection of $16.00; yesterday’s low of $15.90 ¼ does confirm the continuation of the down trend. The 9/20 $16.86 high is the newly confirmed pivot high that this market must close above the negate the downtrend…Frank La Placa
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The Indian government has set its 2012/13 wheat production target at 86 million tonnes. This is below USDA’s full estimate of 93.9 and last year’s actual production of 86.9 mt.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

The Dollar Finds Strength from Global Economic Fears

Sep 24, 2012

Good Morning! Steve Georgy with early morning comments for September 24, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are well off the lows made early last night. Beans took out the 16.00 support level last night but it seems traders are trying to support it this morning. This week will have traders talking about a few topics. First will be harvest progress that is released today at 3:00 PM. The trade is expecting to see a big jump for harvested number since last week gave great opportunities for advancement. Some are saying that we could be 50% complete by the end of this week. The focus will then shift to the USDA report at the end of the week. As we continue to hear better yields coming in,  many traders believe that we could see the carryout number increase for both corn and beans on Friday. Demand numbers may not change much but yield and harvested acres will be the main focus. The last topic that you will hear this week will be that we are approaching the end of the month and the end of the quarter. This usually has fund money moving around and has the ability to push the grain markets around as well. The dollar this morning is strong as European debt problems continue to make headlines. Most of the world stock markets are pushing lower this morning due to the rising fears of the global economy. Crude oil is retesting last week’s lows early today and should be watched closely is those levels are taken out. The energy markets are usually a good indicator of money flow and it seems we could be in for a negative day if the dollar stays strong. Sign up for the Monthly Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar that starts tomorrow evening at 8:00 pm.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    UNCH
Nov Beans   -13 1/2
Dec Wheat   -1
Dec Dlr     +.34
Sep S+P     -7.50
Oct Crude   -1.30
Dec Gold    -18.00
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Dec Corn has slowed down its speed of decent in the last four sessions. While this market is clearly in a down trend, we have found support at this $7.39 level. If we do see strength from this level, I feel that it is a correction that should be viewed as an opportunity for producers to lock in more unsold bushels.
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The General Administration of Customs reports August soybean imports totaled 4.42 million tonnes. This estimate would be 1% under last year. August corn imports totaled 598,842 tonnes. That was up from 244,502 one year prior.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Can Grains Finish Strong After Early Week Losses

Sep 21, 2012

Good Morning! Steve Georgy with early morning comments for September 21, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are pushing higher and trying to gain back some of this week’s loss. As of Thursday’s close beans have seen a $1.19 drop eith corn falling 35 cents. Wheat was down almost 40 cents but has yet to break below key support. Traders are still concerned with the possibility of Russia capping export sales. We have seen some resent sales from Egypt and Iraq this week and Russia was the main seller. The market tends to find this information friendly even though the US is not involved. Wheat is the supporting factor for corn right now as we get through harvest. Export sales were once again negative for corn yesterday and show that we are not seeing demand pick up yet. Producers are becoming more active with harvest and we are hearing better yields than expected for both corn and beans. USDA’s last yield number for corn was just over 122 bpa with beans at 35.3. We are hearing analyst estimates coming in well above USDA’s last guess. Informa will release another estimate today near 10:30. Cattle futures are edging higher after cash cattle traded $1 lower yesterday. The trade was looking for prices to remain steady to $1 higher. Box beef has been strong all week as choice was up .07 and select gaining .29 yesterday. Hogs are trading higher this morning as well. Cash hogs are looking stronger this week and look to have recovered from some pretty negative prices last week. Cash hogs seasonally bounce for a few weeks as we get closer to "National Pork Month" in October. Hog futures are still trading above the cash markets but may benefit from a cash market rally. Sign up for the Monthly Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar next Tuesday evening at 8:00 pm.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    +4 1/2
Nov Beans   +7 1/2
Dec Wheat   +10 3/4
Oct Cattle +.05
Oct Hogs    +.50
Sep Dlr     -.27
Sep S+P     +3.50
Oct Crude   +.55
Dec Gold    +5.70
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Oct Live Cattle has now defined the 9/17 $125.05 low as the tightest risk level that this market must stay above to defer a peak and reversal threat. While we still are in an uptrend we should be concerned that we have seen momentum to the upside slow down at these levels…Frank La Placa 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Next week’s grain stocks report marks the final ending stocks of the old crop marketing year. To make an estimate for it we subtract our estimates of usage in the June through August quarter from USDA’s previous June 1 stocks update.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

USDA Changes Report Release Time

Sep 20, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 20, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are lower as the battle between technical and fundamental traders continues. Macro markets are also providing pressure on commodities due to poor data out of Ireland. Yesterday afternoon USDA said they will change the release time of major grain reports to 11:00 am central time starting in January 2013. Now that much of the harvest is completed in the southern cornbelt and yields in many northern areas are better than expected supply side bullish news is behind us. The demand side of the equation is now the focus. The USDA weekly export sales data is out this morning at 7:30. Trade estimates are corn 350 to 450 tmt, soybeans 550 to 750 tmt, soymeal 550 to 200 tmt, soyoil 10 to 20 tmt and wheat 350 to 550 tmt. Prices of US corn on the world markets are $20 to $30 per tonne over our South American competitors. Soybeans are driven by talk of China buying 2 to 20 cargoes. These rumors have been circulating for several days and we have yet to see any announcements on the daily sales report. Iraq was reported as buying 150,000 tonnes of wheat from Russia. It is cheaper than US even with the possibility of Russia halting shipments at any time. The chart picture has also been a key factor for grain prices this week. It is important to retrace most of the early week’s sell-off by the close on Friday. Another lower weekly close would support the bear’s technical argument that the corn market is headed to the gap on the December chart at 6.80. November beans have a gap near 14.50. Weather forecast has turned a little drier for Brazil in the short-term and a little wetter for the 6 to 10 day period. The southern plains remain dry. We expect there is more two-sided trade ahead of us. Live hog weights in IA/MN have started to show a decline which may be the first indication that supplies have peaked. However pork cutout values have not yet provided the same signal. Wednesday values were down .88. Boxed beef values had choice up .65 and select was down .04. Sign up for the Monthly Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar next Tuesday evening at 8:00 pm.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    -6 1/2
Nov Beans   -14
Dec Wheat   -5
Oct Cattle -.02
Oct Hogs    +.25
Sep Dlr     +.48
Sep S+P     -4.50
Oct Crude   -.95
Dec Gold    -11.70
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s sharp decline in Nov Crude oil has left the 9/14 pivot high of $100.73 as the minimum level this market must correct above to negate the newly confirmed downtrend. With no levels of technical support until the 8/02 low of $87.58, we would not be surprised to see this sharp decline in prices continue. Please review Allendale Inc.’s trade recommendation page for guidance on how to take advantage of this scenario…Frank La Placa
 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The Midwest mostly got through the early week cold snap without a problem. The next round is lined up for Friday. Clearer skies and concerns about stalk stability could make this a very active harvest week in the Midwest.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Bargain Hunters Buying Grains

Sep 19, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 19, 2012 at 5:00 am. Grain futures are higher on short covering after a sharp break. The sharp sell-off in soybeans early this week has pushed prices to levels where it has piqued buyers interest. Traders will be watching the daily sales announcements at 8:00 am. There is talk that Taiwan bought 2 to 5 cargoes of US beans this week. China will be on a week long holiday which starts at the beginning of October. Harvest is expected to be in full swing the next 10 days with only minor delays from isolated showers. Funds were big sellers on Tuesday with estimates of 9,000 corn and 12,000 soybeans. Macro markets have settled down and it is expected that Japan will make some type of economic easing move. We expect choppy markets for the balance of the week as fundamental news is limited and technical traders dominate market psychology. Livestock traders have been taking their key from grains. Feed cost and profitability equations are not stacking up for prosperous fall for livestock producers. Cash cattle are expected to trade at steady to better this week. Boxed beef was higher on Tuesday with choice up 1.22 and select up 1.54. Pork cutout values were down 1.37. October lean hog futures need a close above Tuesday’s high to signal a season bottom. Don’t forget to sign up for the Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar next Tuesday September 28.
 
 
Markets as of 5:00 AM
Dec Corn    +7 1/2
Nov Beans   +24 1/4
Dec Wheat   +13 3/4
Oct Cattle -.07
Oct Hogs    -.55
Sep Dlr     +.08
Sep S+P     +1.50
Oct Crude   -.25
Dec Gold    +4.50
 
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Given yesterday’s follow through selling, the Dec Wheat market is now technically on the ropes. Below the 8/14 $8.57 ¼ pivot low the market may have a hard time finding a place to "catch". A failure at the pivot low may leave the Dec Wheat market to severe downside risk.
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Corn harvest advanced from 15% to 26% complete last week. That was better than the trade’s expectation of 24%, though traders are focusing more this morning on the advancements, and better than expected yields, in soybeans. 
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

More Technical Selling In Beans

Sep 18, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 18, 2012 at 4:45 am. Grain futures are sharply lower in soybeans due to follow through selling. Corn and Wheat are steady to higher. Yesterday’s drop in futures prices has to be attributed to technical selling with a lack of fundamental news. USDA weekly crop conditions report put corn harvest at 26% and the G/E category up 2% to 24%. Soybeans harvest is progressing with 10% complete versus 4% last week. The weather forecast over the next 10 days should allow for further progress. Cash basis late yesterday showed most areas slipping due to harvest. Yield reports continue to come in better than expected by producers. Rich Nelson will be discussing the quarterly stocks estimates next week at the August Ag Leaders Webinar. The wetter forecast for northern Brazil is also cooling off the bullish fever. The large long fund positions have traders wondering if yesterday’s sell-off is the beginning of move similar to last year. Funds were sellers in a big way yesterday with Reuters reporting an estimate of 22,000 corn, 5,000 wheat and 20,000 beans. Boxed beef values were higher on Monday with choice up 1.51 and select up 1.78. Pork supplies continue to be burdensome as producers liquidate herds. The outlook for 4th quarter losses to exceed $50 per herd is not a very consoling outlook. Pork cutout values were down .16 on Monday.
 
 
Markets as of 4:45 AM
Dec Corn    +1 1/4
Nov Beans   -25
Dec Wheat   +8 1/2
Oct Cattle +.10
Oct Hogs    +.07
Sep Dlr     +.11
Sep S+P     -4.25
Oct Crude   -.52
Dec Gold    -.12.70
 
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s Nov. Soybean trade saw a complete momentum failure at the 9/12 low of $16.93 ½ . Along with yesterday’s momentum failure we confirmed a head and shoulders top on the Nov Soybean chart. This pattern does project to $16.00; in order to negate this downtrend we would need to see a recovery above the 9/14 $17.65 high. For unpriced bushels, I would advise to have orders resting at $16.91 which is the neck line on the H&S top.
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Friday afternoon’s Commitment of Traders report indicated the following changes by Managed Money, the "funds", between September 4 and 11…corn -27,162, soybeans -8,852, wheat -3,447, live cattle +5,316, and lean hogs -1,379. Funds have sold 46,426 contracts of corn in the past three weeks.
 
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Profit Taking Pressures Grains

Sep 17, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 17, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are sharply lower. The weak technical close in corn has traders unsettled about the long side of the grain market. Weather will give producers a great opportunity to harvest corn and beans over the next 10 to 15 days. This will likely fill some of the end-user’s immediate needs. Basis in the interior and at the gulf slipped last week. The forecast calls for rain in northern Brazil and the wheat growing areas of Australia. The southern plains in the US are still dry with scattered showers in the forecast. Managed Money Funds liquidated long position in grains last week. We will be watching the daily USDA sales announcement at 8:00 for a confirmation of Chinese bean purchases. The rumor last week was that China bought 2 to 5 cargos of soybeans. Buenos Aires Exchange projects the Argentine corn crop at a record 25 to 26 mmt. The news of QE3 from Fed is now old news and proof of it working will be the focus in the weeks ahead. Boxed beef was higher on Friday with choice up .14 and select up .73. Pork cutout values were up .47 on Friday. Livestock futures are called steady but will be influenced from equity markets at the 9:05 open.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    -10 3/4
Nov Beans   -27
Dec Wheat   -11 3/4
Oct Cattle steady-lower
Oct Hogs    steady-lower
Sep Dlr     +.06
Sep S+P     -3.00
Oct Crude   -.13
Dec Gold    -.01
 
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Dec Corn is attempting a recovery from its major momentum failure below $7.76. The recovery attempt should be viewed as corrective in nature and an opportunity to sell at higher prices until we see a close  above the 8/30 short term pivot high of $8.17 ½ .
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
NOPA, the National Oilseed Processing Association, estimated August soybean crush at 124.773 million bushels. This was under the trade’s estimate of 128.3 million bushels. The number is 5% over last year’s August of 118.767 million bushels. Today’s number, though strong, is disappointing. Wrapping up the old crop marketing year, crush may be 5 to 10 bushels under USDA’s estimate.
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Grain Settlements Today Will Provide Important Clues

Sep 14, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 14, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are higher on short covering and optimism from Fed policy changes. The Fed announced the QE3 plan where they will buy $40 billion per month of mortgage backed securities while continuing with operation twist where they buy $45 billion of long dated bonds. This plan is expected to increase the velocity of money and potentially create jobs. The action taken by ECB’s Draghi and the approval by the German Constitutional court has given traders confidence in the stability of world economies. There still remains the problem that China’s economy is slowing down and we are past peak travel season in the US. Today’s trading action and more specifically  the close should provide some indication of next week’s trend. If corn closes below the 50 day moving average of 7.88, it would be the first time since June 18. This could be the 1st weekly close breaking the uptrend. Soybeans spreads are starting to signal that they are running out of steam in the nearby contracts as they lose to the deferred. Wheat remains the leader in the grain complex as Egypt continues to buy, weather remains dry in Australia and the European crop data downgrades provide support. The grains are looking for reasons to break or rally. Stay in touch with Allendale Advisory for the details. Cash cattle traded at 126 to 128 which are 1 to 3 higher compared to last week. Boxed beef was mixed again on Thursday with choice -.31 and select +.25. Pork cutout values were +.02. Cash hogs traded higher on Thursday. The aggressive marketing the past 6 weeks is now turning into tighter supplies.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    +7 1/2
Nov Beans   +12 3/4
Dec Wheat   +16 1/4
Oct Cattle +.15
Oct Hogs    -.32
Sep Dlr     -.29
Sep S+P     +6.75
Oct Crude   +1.87
Dec Gold    +5.70
 
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday the Dec U.S. Dollar has continued its slide to new contract lows. With no levels of technical support, continued pressure should continue. All exposure to this market should be bearish in nature until this market shows some type of strength, preferably above the 9/10 high of $80.59.
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The Fed announced their plan to enact QE3 yesterday. This latest move will buy $40 billion in mortgage securities each month thru the end of the year. They will keep interest rates low thru mid 2015 (previously thru 2014)
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Ag Markets Now Looking For Direction Driver

Sep 13, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 13, 2012 at 5:05 am. Grain futures are mixed in narrow trading ranges. The USDA did not lower the yield as much as trade was expecting and harvest reports out of IA and MN are coming in better than expected. Soybeans yield, on the other hand, came in less than trade estimates. With the anticipation of a reduction of harvested acres, traders quickly calculated very tight ending stocks for the year. The demand side of the USDA corn balance sheet reduced usage in exports, ethanol and feed and residual. This suggests the USDA believes prices above 8.00 a bushel is enough to curb demand. China will be auctioning 400 tmt of soybean reserves today. We should be getting the results this morning. Yesterday there was talk that China was looking for 2 to 5 cargoes of soybeans. Funds sold 12,000 contracts of corn and bought 14,000 contracts of soybeans on Wednesday. Today we have the weekly Export Sales Report and estimates are for corn 200 to 400 tmt, soybeans 500 to 800 tmt, meal 100 to 250 tmt, soyoil 5 to 20 tmt and wheat 300 to 600 tmt. Macro influences will come from the US jobless claims out at 7:30. The big news will come around 12:30 when Chairman Bernanke holds a news conference and many believe he will announce QE3. It will be a big letdown for many if no announcement is made. Look for reaction to headlines later today. Cattle futures have remained strong this week as tight supplies of market ready cattle provide ideas of higher cash this week. Cheaper corn will let feedlots add a few pounds to the cattle that need a few more days. Boxed beef values were higher with choice up .18 and select up .50. The weaker corn prices have hog spreaders coming out of the bear spread. October continues to gain on deferred. Pork cutout was down 1.70 yesterday. Ag markets are looking for a catalyst to drive prices until the next USDA report which is the quarterly stocks on September 29th.
 
 
Markets as of 5:05 AM
Dec Corn    - 1/2
Nov Beans   -7 1/4
Dec Wheat   +2 1/4
Oct Cattle +.90
Oct Hogs    -.37
Sep Dlr     -.06
Sep S+P     -2.75
Oct Crude   +.11
Dec Gold    -.50
 
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday Nov Soybeans broke the down trend and can arguably be poised for a run at the alltime high of $17.89. We would need to see a close below yesterday’s low of $16.93 ½ in order to negate the recovery attempt to new highs in Nov Soybeans.
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Corn production was recognized lower but new crop ending stocks actually rose. This report will end hopes for new highs for corn prices. USDA lowered old crop corn usage by 160 million bushels. New crop corn usage was actually raised by 25 million from its previous estimate. With a net 135 decline in demand the very slight 52 million bushel decrease in production was more than offset. This move by USDA is not unusual. On the tail end of production declines the demand side takes precedence.
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

USDA Report at 7:30

Sep 12, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 12, 2012 at 5:05 am. Grain futures are higher on short covering ahead of USDA numbers. Wheat prices are lower in Europe as Russia says they will not stop exports. Coming into this month’s USDA Supply and Demand Report grain futures were under pressure compared to July and August when prices rallied into report. Only a few hours remain for a strong price recovery before the 7:30 release. It is likely the USDA will have something for all traders to focus on in this report. Yields were the most talked about going into this report with average trade estimates for corn at 120.6 and soybeans at 35.8. In order to be friendly it will take a number less than the average estimates. Another important number will be the ending stocks. Trade averages are 592 for corn and 109 for soybeans. It will be difficult for USDA to get ending stock below 600 and 100 for corn and beans, respectively. Our Rich Nelson says, historically, the USDA gives us the lowest ending stocks for the year on the September report. The macro markets will be waiting for Dr. Bernanke’s new conference on Thursday afternoon. The German Constitutional Court should be giving us a ruling on their decision concerning the ESM funding used by the ECB this morning. Headlines will likely be a market mover in the next few days. Technical damage to chart formations in the grains has seasoned traders on edge. Boxed beef was mixed with choice up .21 and select down 1.48. Is this giving us an indication that feedlots are quick to sell cattle because of high feed costs? Spreading has been the feature in the pork complex with October gaining on the deferred. The sell-off in corn values has giving traders reason to take profits in the back months of hogs. Pork cutout values were up .96 on Tuesday.
 
 
Markets as of 5:05 AM
Dec Corn    +1
Nov Beans   +11
Dec Wheat   - 1/4
Oct Cattle +.55
Oct Hogs    +.32
Sep Dlr     -.28
Sep S+P     +8.00
Oct Crude   +.85
Dec Gold    +12.20
 
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday the Oct Live Cattle posted an outside range day higher. Technically this does imply strength in the Oct Cattle, we did take out the upper end of the range and it does confirm the breakout. One technical note of caution however is that the exact 50% retracement of the entire range from the 3/1 $135.00 high and the 4/27 low of $119.50 is $127.50. While this level is by no means a reason to be negative the Oct Live Cattle especially considering the strength that was shown today it is something that we must be aware of…Frank La Placa
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Corn harvest rose from 10% to now 15% complete in the latest report from USDA. This is far above the five year average and last year (both at 5%). The average analyst guess, as compiled by Reuters newswire, was a 17% pace.
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Buyers Supporting Corn After Sharp Break

Sep 11, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 11, 2012 at 4:45 am. Grain futures are mixed with corn and wheat higher, soybeans slightly lower. Yesterday’s sell-off was a surprise to many traders, especially ahead of this week’s major reports and macro-economic data. The USDA Supply and Demand is being watched very closely as traders and analysts have been estimating what the yield may be for weeks. More importantly is the total production and ending stocks which will give us a "believe it or not" number. Has demand slowed enough to make the USDA numbers work? Harvest is moving along in corn with 15% complete compared to 5% average. Soybean harvest was 4% complete versus last year of 1%. Soybean conditions improved by 2% last week, to 32% in the G/E category. The Fed meeting on Sept 12 and 13 with minutes released on Thursday has traders expecting an announcement of QE3. The other camp is saying Bernanke will save his bullets for a better time. The German Constitutional Court is expected to rule on the constitutionality of the ESM on Wednesday. This is the main bailout mechanism of the European Central Bank. It is not expected to be ruled unconstitutional but they may add directives. The sell-off in December corn on Monday closed below support at 7.86 ½ which now becomes resistance and critical to close above that level in the next few days to maintain trend. See technical comments from Frank La Placa below. The hog futures were influenced by the sell-off in corn which prompted fund buying and short covering of an oversold market. Can the buying continue? Pork cutout values were stable being down only .02. Cash cattle traded late on Friday at 124 to 125 in the south. Boxed beef on Monday was mixed, choice was up .59 and select was down 1.02. We expect all Ag markets to be choppy going into a Wednesday filled with data and headlines.
 
 
Markets as of 4:45 AM
Dec Corn    +3 3/4
Nov Beans   -1 3/4
Dec Wheat   +1 3/4
Oct Cattle +.27
Oct Hogs    +.02
Sep Dlr     -.15
Sep S+P     +2.75
Oct Crude   +.00
Dec Gold    +1.40
 
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday Dec Corn took out the 8/13 $7.86 low which negates the uptrend and confirms a peak and reversal threat that should see follow through selling as we begin what could be a significant correction from these levels. Unless we see a close above the 8/30 $8.17 swing high continued downside pressure should not surprise. I also feel that due to today’s confirmation of the downtrend, that producers should look to be 60% priced in Dec Corn…Frank LaPlaca
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
With Friday’s monthly job’s report only indicating 96,000 new non-farm payroll jobs, the financial trade believes QE3 is right around the corner. A Reuters newswire poll of 59 economists, found 60% of them believe the Fed will take action at the upcoming September meeting.
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Trade Adjusts For Midweek Reports

Sep 10, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 10, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures have firmed up overnight with corn and wheat higher, soybeans steady. Harvest should pick up this week as the weather clears out of the Midwest. More showers are expected this coming weekend. But more important is the USDA report on Wednesday morning at 7:30. We have heard a lot of talk about yield with the trade average estimate is 120.59 bushels per acre for corn and 35.79 bushels per acre for soybeans. However the real question is whether or not the USDA will give us any adjustment to harvested acres. Normally they will not make any changes in planted versus harvested until the October report. Wednesday will be a big day for the macro markets as this month’s Fed meeting will conclude and many anticipate Chairman Bernanke to make an announcement of another quantitative easing program. Expect traders to get positioned for midweek volatility. Southern hemisphere weather is getting some attention but will likely be overshadowed this week. Soybeans basis fell another .10 in Decatur on Friday. Boxed beef values were lower on Friday with choice down .83 and select down .16. Pork values were down .34. Tight supplies of fed cattle are support cash markets however the opposite is reality in hogs. The cooler weather is allowing hogs a better rate of gain and high feed cost are pushing supplies to market. Packer margins are at near record level. Livestock futures are expected to open steady lower this morning.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10AM
Dec Corn    +4 3/4
Nov Beans   +4 1/4
Dec Wheat   +7
Oct Cattle steady-Lower
Oct Hogs    Steady-Lower
Sep S&P     -2.50
Sep Dlr     +.08
Oct Crude   +.09
Dec Gold    -4.30
 
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Dec Corn has continued its sideways trading range. The longer we stay at these levels without taking out the 8/10 pivot high of $8.49 the higher probability that we begin to see a breakdown of the chart. However you could argue that the 9/06 low of $7.88 is the tightest risk parameter someone could use to base bullish opinions…Frank La Placa
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Bloomberg newswire released its analyst poll results for Wednesday. Corn production is seen falling 359 million bushels but ending stocks may only go from 650 to 596. Soybean production is seen falling 33 million bushels while ending stocks could fall from 115 to 106. Wheat stocks are seen falling slightly from 698 to 685 million bushels.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

Grain Shoppers Are Buying Elsewhere

Sep 07, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 7, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are lower in narrow trading ranges. World buyers of grains are tendering for US supplies but buying from other countries. Egypt bought a total of 475,000 tonnes of wheat from Russia, Ukraine and Romania. Some are thinking it could be optional origin because the price paid was higher than last week. This gave way to speculation that if Russia limits exports, one of the other countries would deliver the wheat. South Korea announced a purchase of 124,000 tonnes of corn from Brazil at $51 per tonne cheaper than US origin. That relates to $1.30 per bushel cheaper. South Korea bought 10,000 tonnes of feed barley from India, $6 per tonne cheaper than Brazilian corn. The USDA did announce a sale of 227,000 tonnes of corn to unknown buyer on Thursday. Although it is seasonally early for harvest, the talk of delays because of rain is providing support to futures prices. The southern hemisphere weather is drawing a lot of attention with northern Brazil being dry. The western wheat growing areas of Australia is also providing support to world wheat values. Labor Dept. Unemployment data will be released at 7:30 AM. The ADP numbers from yesterday are causing expectations to rise for this morning’s report. Estimates for next Wednesday’s USDA Report continue to come out. Informa will be releasing their estimate at 10:30 this morning. USDA Weekly export sales estimates for the 7:30 report: corn 200 to 350 tmt, soybeans 700 to 900 tmt, soymeal 150 to 200 tmt, soyoil 15 to 35 tmt and wheat 450 to 650 tmt. Cash cattle are at a standstill this week. Boxed beef was higher on Thursday with choice up .42 and select up .03. Cash hogs and futures continue to be hit with liquidation although pork cutout values were up .50.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10AM
Dec Corn    - 1/4
Nov Beans   -8 1/4
Sep Wheat   -3 1/2
Oct Cattle +.05
Oct Hogs    -.47
Sep S&P     +5.25
Sep Dlr     -.15
Oct Crude   +.31
Dec Gold    -7.30
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Oct Live Cattle has continued its sideways range. What is concerning is that we are struggling to find buying at the upper edge of the range that has capped this market for the last four months.…Frank La Placa
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
A group of manufactures have filed suit against the Sugar Association claiming they are maligning high fructose corn syrup. The Sugar Association has recently begun calling cane sugar as "natural sugar". Corn refiners were recently set back when a federal court indicated they could not call HFCS "corn sugar".
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

More Yield Estimates to Digest

Sep 06, 2012

 

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 6, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are mixed with corn and wheat higher, soybeans lower. It appears the recent rains are support for higher bean yield estimates. Yesterday afternoon several FCMs released their numbers for bean yields, RJO put bean yield at 35.6 and FC Stone put out a number of 36.7. The August USDA bean yield was 36.1. Their corn yield estimates were 120.3 (RJO) and 121.4 (FC Stone). We expect to see more estimates as we approach the Supply and Demand report next Wednesday. Weekly export sales will be released Friday morning due to Labor Day. The EIA ethanol data which will be released at 10:00 am today will be watch closely for clues to further demand deterioration. Rain in the US forecast is now seen as bullish with harvest delays and quality problems in drought stricken corn. The talk of dry conditions in South America may be a bit early to cause problems but there is no doubt it is a very sensitive issue. Western Australian wheat growing areas are becoming a concern due to dryness. Ukraine will discuss in October whether to limit exports. Corn and wheat sell-off is testing technical support on the charts. December corn should find support 7.86 1/2, December wheat support crosses at 8.58 ½. The Labor Dept. will give us unemployment figures on Friday morning. Cattle futures are being supported by tight supplies and hopes of higher cash prices this week. Boxed beef was higher on Wednesday. Choice was up .69 and select was up 1.14. Lean hog futures are under pressure from liquidation in the cash markets and a burdensome supply of pork. Cutout values were down 2.57 on Wednesday. Allendale believes we are getting near the end of this liquidation in Lean Hogs. Checkout Rich Nelson’s comments in the Allendale Advisory Report.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10AM
Dec Corn    +5
Nov Beans   -2 1/2
Sep Wheat   +12
Oct Cattle -.05
Oct Hogs    -.10
Sep S&P     +8.00
Sep Dlr     -.05
Oct Crude   +1.02
Dec Gold    +16.90
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday in the Oct Lean Hogs we broke out above $74.50 but failed to close above this level and in fact closed lower on the day. A failure on a recovery attempt does reconfirm the bear trend and now the contract lows of $72.07 1/2 should be in the market’s crosshairs...Frank La Placa
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Harvest of the US corn crop advanced from 6% to now 10% complete. This was just under the trade expectation of 12%. It is still well above the five year average of 3%. Good to excellent ratings, of diminished importance now, were left unchanged at 22%.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

 

Rains Help Wheat Prospects

Sep 05, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 5, 2012 at 5:20 am. Grain futures are lower this morning. Allendale released the results of the 23rd Yield Survey of farmers which put the national average corn yield at 118.2 and soybeans at 34.9 bushels per acre. There were farmers from 32 states who participated in this year’s survey and Allendale wants to thank all who shared their information. When putting the production data into the USDA balance one has to wonder how they can make it work. We believe the USDA will likely reduce demand by 90% of any supply reduction which will leave the ending stock with only a minor change. Crop conditions had very little change from last week although soybeans improve 1% from very poor to fair. Soybeans posted new contract highs on Tuesday then sold off. Bear spreads were also a feature yesterday. This may be a signal the Bull Run in soybeans maybe coming to an end. Of course it will take more than one day but is a reason to watch for further signs. Talk of dry weather in South America is providing some interest in the contracts after March 2013. Argentina is expected to be releasing more corn export licenses, China’s economic data continues to show slowing and an ECB meeting will be held on Thursday. Mario Draghi will be making an announcement on Thursday which either could have real meaning or more of "kicking-the-can". Unemployment data will be released by the Labor Department on Friday morning. USDA supply and Demand report next Wednesday and FOMC meeting next Wednesday should give reason for grain futures increase volatility. Chart support today in December corn is 7.93 and 7.87. Live cattle futures are poised to continue the trend higher but need some help from the product market. On Tuesday choice beef was up .83 and select was up 1.23. Pork cutout values remain under pressure with a .85 lower price on Tuesday. We are looking for hog supplies to slow down in a few weeks which should support pork product going into October "Pork Month".
 
 
Markets as of 5:20AM
Dec Corn    -6 1/2
Nov Beans   -7 1/2
Sep Wheat   -3
Oct Cattle +.15
Oct Hogs    -.25
Sep S&P     -2.75
Sep Dlr     +.10
Oct Crude   -.16
Dec Gold    -1.60
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s new contract high of $17.89 in Nov. Soybeans comes with a few concerns. 1.) We made new highs on selling. 2.) We left a gap on the chart from Friday’s close to Monday night’s open that was filled during the day session. These negative ideas considered, we still have not seen a close below the 8/28 pivot low of $17.01 that would confirm a short term break in momentum. If we do see a close below $17.01 we would not be surprised by the looming peak and reversal threat that such a close would imply…Frank La Placa
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Allendale Inc. released the results of its two week nationwide Farmer Yield Survey Tuesday morning. The firm found corn yields to be 118.2 bushels per acre which would put production at 10.326 billion bushels. Soybean yields, at 34.9, would produce at 2.602 billion bushel crop. These numbers are lower than USDA’s 10.779 and 2.692 billion August estimates. Allendale surveyed producers in 32 states.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538  www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

September Starts with Strong Opening in Grains

Sep 04, 2012

 

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 4, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are higher as November soybeans set new all-time highs. Allendale will announce the results of the 23rd Annual Yield Survey at 7:30 this morning. On the Allendale YouTube "Morning Coffee" we will have the results of the survey with some comments on production data. The remnants of Hurricane Isaac provided plenty of moisture for IL south of I80 then east into IN and OH. Amounts in southern IL were 3 to 5 inches. This rainfall will help the wheat seeding and late planted beans that survived the drought. It will cause delays in harvest this week which is adding some strength to futures. Crop conditions and harvest progress will be out this afternoon at 3 pm. Egypt bought 355,000 tonnes of wheat over the weekend most of it from Russia, the balance from Ukraine and Romania. Macro events which will impact the markets this week are: the ECB meeting on Thursday, where it is expected Draghi will make an announcement on bond buying. Then, Friday traders will be watching the US Unemployment data, unchanged at 8.3% is expected. Will we see more beginning of month fund buying this week? Cash cattle markets ended the week on a firm note however boxed beef was under pressure. Choice was down 1.21 and select was down.57. Hog processors have a short week this week and will not have to be aggressively looking for hogs. Pork cutout values were down .12 on Friday. The loss in lean hog futures was the largest monthly decline since 2002.
 
 
Markets as of 5:10AM
Dec Corn    +9 3/4
Nov Beans   +24 1/4
Sep Wheat   +8 1/4
Oct Cattle called steady
Oct Hogs    called steady
Sep S&P     +1.75
Sep Dlr     -.08
Oct Crude   +.78
Dec Gold    +8.10
 
Need more:
Contact us directly view email: research@allendale-inc.com
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Dec Corn continues its sideways trend but is beginning to feel technically "heavy" above $8.00.  The 8/21 $8.40 pivot high is the high that this market must close above to negate the short term down trend and reverse the direction of the market and continue the broader bull market. If we do see continued weakness, a close below $7.86 would confirm a peak and reversal which would demand defensive measures for producers…Frank La Placa
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The much talked about Food Safety Committee concluded with a surprising turn. This meeting among government agriculture representatives not open to the public, ended with the Deputy Prime Minister saying, "As long as I am in charge of this sector, I will be against any export restrictions." The meeting ended with Russia saying it would not ban or restrict exports. The world grain trade is still adamant in is expectations for some controls later on. However, it appears for two or three months the trade will not see any changes made.  
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com
 
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

 

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