Corn Breaks Key Chart Support ahead of Major Report
Mar 30, 2012
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for March 30, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are slightly higher as macro markets provide support this morning. End of month money flow and fear dominated grain futures markets yesterday. May corn futures have dropped 53 cents from Monday’s high to Thursday’s close and 3 1/2 cents from the low made after the January Grain Stocks Report. In a few hours the hype will become reality; the USDA will release the long awaited Quarterly Stocks and Prospective Plantings Reports. Remember, the corn and soybean plantings estimated by the USDA are as of the beginning of March. Price relationships were much more in favor of planting corn versus beans than today. The Quarterly stocks average estimates for this morning’s report are: wheat 1.223, corn 6.150 and soybeans 1.387 compared to last year wheat 1.425, corn 6.523 and soybeans 1.249 million bushel. Prospective planting trade average estimates are corn 94.72 million acres and soybeans 75.393 million acres compared to last year 91.92 and 74.976 respectively. Cash cattle trade 125 in TX and KS which are 1.00 lower from last week. NE was 1.00 to 2.00 lower than last week. Boxed beef was lower with choice down .78 and select down 1.20. Pork cutout values were down .77. The USDA will be releasing Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report this afternoon at 2:00 pm. Report estimates are All Hogs 101.7, Kept for Breeding 100.3, and Kept for Market 100.8. Get full pre-report and post-report comments in the Allendale Research Center. I will have a reaction to the Grain report on the Morning Coffee on YouTube by 8:00 am.
Markets as of 5:10 AM
May Corn +2
May Beans +5 ½
May Wheat +2 3/4
Apr Cattle -.125
Apr Hogs -.125
Jun S&P +7.25
Jun $ Index -.38
May Crude +.63
June Gold +12.30
Allendale Advanced Charts
Beans pulled back to the 20 day moving average on Thursday as increased selling pressure continued throughout the session. The uptrend is still intact, as key support is 13.38 1/2. A break of this level could activate more selling.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Weekly unemployment claims fell by 5,000 to 359,000 in the week ended March 24. This is a new low. The insured unemployment rate, shown here, fell to a new low for the recovery to 2.6%. The US economy is slowly improving.
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.