Grain Express: A Choppy Grain Trade

Oliver Sloup was on RFD-TV yesterday with Scott the Cow Guy, sharing his thought son the recent price action in the grain and livestock markets. 

Weather in Focus – Blue Line Ag Hedg

Though it certainly doesn’t feel like it this week, we are inching our way closer to springtime, where weather in the U.S. will become more of a focal point for the grain markets. Here we look at current conditions, a 2-week outlook, and the National Weather Service’s 3-month outlook.

Corn

Technicals (May)
May corn futures failed to sustain momentum above the 50-day moving average and resistance in yesterday's trade, which has put prices right back to where we've been for the bulk of the week. We wouldn't be surprised to see a choppy trade into next week's USDA report, which could present some great shorter-term opportunities for traders on both sides of the market. Also worth noting, today is April options expiration. It's also the second day of March Madness, which as stupid as it sounds has been known to induce a holiday like trade from time to time.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 447 1/2-450****

Pivot: 441 3/4-444 1/2

Support: 431 1/2-433 1/4*, 421-422

Fundamental Notes

• Weekly Export Sales Snapshot for Corn: Net sales of 1,185,800 MT for 2023/2024 were down 8 percent from the previous week, but up 10 percent from the prior 4-week average. This was within the range of expectations.

Fund Positioning

• Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that Funds were net buyers of roughly 40.8k futures/options contracts, 37.5k of that being short covering. That trims their net short position to 255,928 contracts. For those wondering where prices are when Funds were that short on the way down, May corn was at 453 3/4 and Dec was at 477 1/4.

Seasonal Trends

(Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results

• Below is a look at price averages for December corn, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages. Though we believe we can see prices firm from these levels, we would urge Producers to temper the expectations, given the current balance sheet. 

Continue Reading the full report at A Choppy Grain Trade - Blue Line Futures

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500