Profit Taking Pressures Cattle Futures Prices
We were on RFD-TV
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nxC-NEgP-fk
Live Cattle
Technicals (April- J)
The suspense continues to mount as prices continue to consolidate between significant support and resistance levels. Despite the suspense, there’s not a whole lot to say that we haven’t said over the last week since prices continue to consolidate. We’ve been in the camp that the market would be able to chew through resistance and fill the gap from October 23rd, but it’s starting to feel like the little extra juice may not be worth the squeeze as seasonal tendencies start to soften up, particularly in the June contract which we’ve outlined in the seasonal chart below.
Boxed beef was firm to start the week with choice cuts up 1.84 to 308.88 and select cuts up 1.45 to 298.88. The 5-area average price for live steers came in at 185.12 and daily slaughter was reported at 111,000 head.
Resistance: 189.10-190.275***
Pivot: 187.30-188.05
Support: 186.30-186.90*, 183.15-183.45
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line). Seasonally we start to see June futures soften up, but if you’ve been watching cattle at all over the last year you know that seasonals tendencies tend to have had a lower correlation this year.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of about 8k futures and options contracts, extending their net long position for the seventh consecutive week, now sitting roughly 59.3k contracts long. Typically, we would view this as a relatively Neutral/Bullish position. This is about half of the length they had when prices peaked last Fall.
Check out the full report at: Profit Taking Pressures Cattle Futures Prices - Blue Line Futures
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