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John's World
10/25/2007
John Phipps
nov1705
June 27, 2006
Is there a rebate on that
tie-fighter?...
A Jedi shops for a car. [For
Star Wars fans, or anyone needing a laugh]
[Broadband]
[via
Neatorama]
******
Charles Darwin's tortoise
dies...
This
story fascinated me. Harriet - thought to be the world's
oldest tortoise, died at age 176 in Australia.
She was hatched on the Galapagos Islands was believed to
have been captured by Charles Darwin, right before he
decided to dedicate his life to making school board meetings in
the United States total nightmares.
******
Why should milk be any
different than jobs or construction contracts?...
The
price of milk in Chicago may be
"rigged". [In
fairness, everything in Chicago may be
rigged] Actually, all milk prices are, but the
system is getting way outta whack because, like all price fixing
schemes, it cannot adjust to rapid changes in supply and demand.
Chicago
was the most expensive market in the nation for whole milk in 2005,
averaging
$3.96 a gallon. In the first half of 2006, it has slipped to second
behind New
Orleans, which has
Hurricane Katrina to blame.
For 2 percent milk, Chicago
does a little better. It was the fifth-most expensive market in the
nation in
2005--at $3.58 a gallon--in the USDA's survey of 30 urban markets. So
far in
2006, Chicago
has slipped to seventh place for 2 percent milk.
In comparison, a gallon of milk in Carbondale, Ill., just
five hours away, was
among the cheapest in the nation last year, averaging $2.68 for whole
milk and
$2.55 for 2 percent.
What amazes me about all these agricultural economic schemes is how the
apparent losers - small farms - are the most ardent supporters.
Even as
consolidation rolls over them - assisted by the government payments -
they troop to Washington to demand more of the same.
Government intervention will ensure a handful of enormous farms - my guess is 35-50,000
- producing 90% of our ag output in my lifetime. And it will be small farmers who
will make it possible.
June 25, 2006
Live long and prosper...
We have had the happy
privilege of hosting a family gathering this weekend. My
mother's memorial service was Saturday and our family gathered at a
small cemetery a mile from the farm to say goodbye.
My sons and nephews - ever a colorful lot - are now grownups.
Or as close as they are likely to get. At one
point, as we visited here at our farm, I notice that two of them had on
Star Wars T-shirts.
I gave them a hard time, of course, as required by law. They
immediately returned fire about my Star Trek obsession.
Realize that we are
talking about 3 engineers, 1 physicist, 1 med lab supervisor, and 1
scientist.
Pretty predictable.
It made me stop and estimate how lame I actually was at my advanced age to be relatively unashamed of
my attraction to an admittedly silly, low-budget, badly-acted TV series
nearly 40 years old.
Upon sober reflection, I think I have found some common ground with the
Star Wars generation and legitimate reasons justify my continuing
enjoyment of this make-believe world.
Most of all, Star Trek
was hopeful. Problems were solvable if enough
ingenuity and passion were applied. This is the attitude that
took the US to land on the moon, and it is the attitude that has been
sorely damaged by the cynicism that passes for conventional wisdom.
Optimism may be passe, but it is also empowering.
Star Trek had places for new ideas. The resistance to change in the
future was shown as much diminished allowing for whole new worlds of
possibilities. While I am old enough now to appreciate things
NOT changing, I am persuaded that opposition to progress is a problem
mostly for those who have already got their piece of the pie.
Conservatism is the philosophy of choice for beneficiaries of
previous
change. Star Trek depicted a world where the power and logic
of an idea held greater sway than the status quo.
Like Star Wars, there were heroes, and the heroes had to not merely do
extraordinary deeds but agonize over what was right or wrong. Does the
"good of the many always outweigh the good of the few"?
Exposing boys' minds to ideas of right action and qualities like honor
and loyalty didn't hurt many of us, and was curiously effective.
All
cultures have their mythologies to explain shared values. For
better or worse, Star Trek and Star Wars, have become an integral part
of America's, at least for a while.
So if you want to make fun of Star Trek events like this
one in Riverside, Iowa - fair enough. But underneath the silliness,
even a critic must acknowledge there was a power to touch the future.
******
Free-ish trade...
It is becoming increasingly clear no deal at the WTO will meet US
agriculture's approval. All the market access in the world
won't mean much until we become competitive in the global marketplace,
so many leaders now see any deal as "unilateral disarmament" - as if
our own trade barriers/subsidies are helping us somehow.
US producers keep pointing to EU subsidies or trade restrictions in
tiny economies and saying, "All the other kids are doing it!".
To me this is like refusing
to quit smoking until everybody else quits first.
"Unilateral disarmament" should be undertaken for its own sake -
because we are not giving weapons - we are giving up economically
harmful practices. Trade
barriers like our sugar program and production subsidies do not make
our agriculture strong - just the opposite.
Especially now that we have made it a law that people must use ethanol regardless of price,
and we may not be exporting much anyway -at least corn - this could be
a good time to try to kick our subsidy habit.
I think the administration might be thinking along the
same lines.
******
The Swiss Army Couch...
This "seating unit" unfolds to any
configuration like a um, well, Swiss Army knife. Our
army creates vehicles like the Hummer, the Swiss army inspires interior
design.
There is a metaphor there somewhere.
June 22, 2006
Two jumps ahead...
While most of us are still
pondering the implications of 2 billion bushels of corn going into
ethanol, some investors are looking further ahead.
And last
month Goldman
Sachs (Charts),
the world's largest investment bank, poured $27 million into Iogen, a
Canadian-based
biotech specializing in ethanol made from cellulose.
It used
to be thought that this fuel, which some argue has the potential to
replace more than two thirds of all gasoline used in the U.S.,
was
decades away from commercial viability.
But high
gas prices, a touch of technical innovation, and a healthy dose of
capital may move that date up.
"There
are a lot of people who think the technology is there," and
could be competitive even if oil prices return to $30 a barrel, said
Greg
Bohannon, a managing partner at Greenrock Capital, a California-based
private
equity fund that focuses on renewable energy. "Why would Goldman Sachs
invest in a company that's not going to be commercially viable for 10
years?"
Chances
are, they didn't.
Cellulosic ethanol has always
seemed like a great idea for my grandson. I had forgotten to take into
account what $70 oil makes possible.
$70 oil can:
All these things are possible because now when you save or replace a
barrel of oil, you keep - you guessed it - $70. Most farmers,
who have long since forgotten how markets and people really act because
of our artificial
Subsidy-World,
will soon learn how
economic substitution works.
Regardless of whether cellulosic ethanol is sooner or later, the source
of the cellulose could be the pivotal question. Corn stover,
frequently mentioned is a prime candidate for several reasons.
First, we will have plenty of it, seeing as how we'll be growing all
that corn for ethanol. Second, the technology to handle it is
already in place - large balers, special trailers, etc. Third, the ag
lobby will be all over this idea, seeing a chance to sell
chisel-clogging residue for real US dollars, so there could be yet
another subsidy somewhere in those shucks.
But my point -
which
you suspected I had mislaid, I'll bet - is this.
How much
fertilizer, especially P & N will it take when you take the
corn and the stover off every year?
I think the smart money is in phosphate mines or manure contracts.
If we could site a NH3 plant in the US, I'd buy into that
too. I've already talked about our significant - and growing
- foreign N dependence.
[When
my archives are ready, you can link to past blither. Soon,
very soon]
Ethanol is going to make a lot of people wealthy. A few may
be farmers.
Homework: If
corn prices are $3.25 for fall delivery, what will you offer for cash
rent for 200 prime acres 2 miles from your farm?
This could be the most exciting time of my career.
And
the riskiest - or are those the same thing?
******
There is a
ski rack in the corner too...
Those
wacky Norwegians are going to save the world one seed at a time.
Since they own some of the most desolate and forbidding territory
on earth, they have volunteered to host the world's Seed Vault.
While
the facility will
be fenced in and guarded, Svalbard's free-roaming polar bears, known
for their ferocity, could also act as natural guardians, according to
the Global Diversity Trust.
[Wait - I thought global warming
was going to starve all the polar bears?]
We have one of our own (below), but
nothing so extensive or "European" as this arctic repository.
It's
kind of like a Fortress of Solitude for seeds, I
guess. But to tell you the truth, I never really understood why
Superman needed a cave full of ice to brood in. Why not sulk
out in the workshop?
Anyway, if the worst happens, you'll know where
to get planting supplies.
Payment will be in herrings, I suspect.
******
I thought they were bad
in Chrisman...
Like many towns, residents of Chrisman have battled flocks of
starlings. Other Midwestern communities have struggled with invasions
as well. They seem to leave as mysteriously as they arrive.
But we didn't know what a
starling flock was all about:
To give you a hint, the Danes call it the Black Sun.
[via BoingBoing]
June 20, 2006
I've got weed problems
enough...
I don't need to make new
ones. Consider the following incident:
A farmer pulls a truckload of soybeans onto the pit at the elevator
ahead of me, raises the bed, and opens the gate.
Nothing happens. There is a solid wall of beans and ...lambsquarter seeds.
Saw it with my own eyes. Never want to see it again, either.
I've
had some end rows myself where the lambsquarters seemed unusually
robust, so when rumors of glyphosate-resistant lambsquarters
started popping up, I paid attention. (Marestails have never
been a big deal for us)
It's
not like we couldn't see this coming, for crying out loud.
But it's also the case that we could easily postpone the day we negate
the utility of glyphosate. I don't claim to be an example,
but that's one reason I use dicamba.
Sure it drifts and seems
to hurt the neighbor's beans, but they all know I'm good for any
damage, and I have never had to actually compensate anyone.
Besides, since it's pretty much out of favor, it's gotten
cheaper. And it works pretty well on my weed spectrum.
I'm trying some other chemistry like Callisto, just to shut up my
neighbors who consider me hopelessly old-fashioned, but I still like
cheap.
As we rush to all-corn-all-the-time,
there will be a side-effect of all
glyphosate-all-the-time. My theory is that as glyphosate
degrades to a market of buy-one-get-one-free, we can afford to splash
in something extra to delay resistance.
******
Sex and babies - a parting of
the ways
Over
the last few years I have been routinely creeped out by the fact any
domestic animal of value pretty much has a sex life from hell.
Thanks to the widespread adoption of artificial insemination
(AI), animals from terriers to standardbred horses are reproduced
in with clinical precision and very little fun, apparently.
Perhaps it's being one of generation forced to read Aldous Huxley's Brave New World,
but my discomfort with this trend was only partly offset by the
admittedly large benefits in costs and efficiency. It seemed
to me to presage a day when humans themselves chose to procreate via
technology rather than passion.
That
day is now much closer, I believe.
Scientists in Britain have found a way to test embryos for a myriad of genetic problems,
allowing parents-to-be a chance to avoid a wide range of health
problems or tendencies. The larger concern with this idea has been the
seemingly inevitable ability to similarly select for height, or IQ, or
even the talent to dance.
These new choices are fraught with moral questions, and I believe we
will be hearing much, much more about those very soon. Most
of these cries will center on the issue of "designer babies".
Professor Braude is resolute on the
ethical question of
designer babies.
"It is a step to designer babies for
those people
who've got genetic disease," he said.
"And
what we're designing, if you like, or
selecting for, is a baby that's not going to die.
There are also questions
about what your health insurance company will have to say about NOT
testing, so they won't be on the hook for genetically influenced
problems - the list of which grows every day.
The more troublesome
consequence for me is these tests, and the
ability to select,
are available only for embryos outside
the womb.
As more couples use in vitro fertilization (IVF), the
practice has become safer, cheaper, and now - with tests such as this -
superior in some ways to the "old method" used by humans for several
million years.
Just like the jump in Cesarean section births to
avoid any hint of complication during normal delivery, I believe
risk-averse parents will opt for IVF to allow a screening process
before implanting the embryo. I'm not sure I blame them.
But
it will finally and completely separate sex - that wildly
popular athletic entertainment - from reproduction. It will
also make the answer to "Mommy, where do babies come from?" even
trickier.
We
are irrationally, hysterically risk-averse where our children are
involved. Even thunderous preaching from religionists opposed to this
sort of science will fall on disobedient ears, I am convinced.
And
in the end, we will be a little less human, and a little more like the
animals we keep.
******
The further (international)
adventures of OSHA-MAN
Jan and I have always called
the stick-figure in the warning signs on machinery, "OSHA-Man".
Some of the signs are cryptic, some are really funny.
But there are lots of them out there:
I'm not exactly sure what the hazard is here, but I'm
staying out of blue triangles.
Great series of photos: Stick Figures in Peril on
flickr.com
My favorite: warning of the hideous danger of boxed lightning.
[via BoingBoing]
June 18, 2006
When you put it that way...
There was a remarkably
interesting article about men and church in the Chicago Tribune on
Friday. Both Jan and I noticed it and it made a lot of sense
as I scanned the pews this morning. It was titled "Why men don't like to go to church":
"Every Muslim man knows that he is
locked in a great battle between good and evil, and although that was a
prevalent teaching in Christianity until about 100 years ago, today
it's primarily about having a relationship with a man who loves you
unconditionally," Murrow said, referring to Christ.
"And if
that's the punch line of the gospel, then you're going to have a lot
more women than men taking you up on your offer because women are
interested in a personal relationship with a man who loves you
unconditionally. Men, generally, are not." [my emphasis]
Most interesting was the assertion that we have been here before.
Concern about the perceived feminization of
Christianity--and the subsequent backlash--is nothing new.
In the middle of the 19th Century, two-thirds of
church members in New
England were women, said Bret E. Carroll, professor of history at
California State University, Stanislaus. Portrayals of Jesus around
that time depicted a doe-eyed savior with long, flowing hair and white
robes.
Then, around the 1870s and 1880s, came a growing
emphasis on making religion attractive to men. The movement known as
"muscular Christianity" extolled manliness and had its heyday from 1880
to 1920, according to Clifford Putney in "Muscular Christianity."
I am clueless how to go about
addressing this, but I suspect that one reason I love my
work with the choir is because it involves doing
something.
******
Trekkies just won't give
up...
I call myself a Star Trek fan, but I am an amateur. Thanks to
cheap digital video equipment, home-made videos of the genre abound.
That's so beautiful, I
think I'm going to cry a little right now...
******
The Battle for
Broadband...
While most some a
few of us were riveted by the pseudo-debate in Congress over the war in
Iraq, another legislative battle is underway that has
significant implications for rural America.
The "Net Neutrality" controversy has
enough conflicting elements policy to confuse the casual observer and
concern the knowledgeable. I fall somewhere in between, I
think, and have struggled to decide where I stand on this complex issue.
The success of the Internet has rested, I believe, on its power to give
an equal voice to unequal players. Talented and original
content providers could compete with enormous organizations and more
amazingly, win because the quality of the experience was based on the
information they produced, not the way it was delivered.
Maintaining this policy of treating websites equally seems
like a fundamental key to preserving the power of the Internet,
especially for individuals or poorer participants.
However, the right of communications companies ("telcos") to offer
wealthy content providers (Google, Yahoo, AOL, etc.) faster delivery of
content (the prime example: video) seems like a reasonable extension of
free enterprise as well.
These two ideals conflict because once multiple tiers of speed for
different content are allowed, the
slow becomes the lame. It also sets a precedent for
"valuing content" to determine how fast it gets sent. The
analogy would be toll roads charging trucks carrying grain a different
price than trucks carrying steel.
But mostly it allows yet another elite level of service available to
those who have the wealth. I understand that allowing this
form of economic discrimination will create jobs and increase economic
activity, but our exclusive use of this yardstick as the measure of
what is good has produced variable results.
For rural America, I suspect we
would not see many benefits from "premier class" service,
and our regular Internet speeds would likely languish as communications
companies rush for the big bucks. The trickle down would be
as slow as trying to get basic broadband coverage.
I do not begrudge the wealthy their perks (OK, I do, but I try to bite my
tongue). I simply have come to the conclusion
that the Internet offers too great a chance to bring us together to
allow it to degenerate into simply another high-end
electronic toy.
This battle may be described poorly but briefly as a struggle between
the "Googles" and the "Bells". Each side has representation in Congress and the
issue fractures normal political lines. And the stakes may run into the
billions.
Above all it is an exceedingly complex issue to wrestle to the ground.
- so not many are trying. For what it is worth, my meager
study of the issue leads me to suspect this may
be the moment when we can preserve a democratic tool that is re-shaping
society everywhere for the better.
We
have growing profits in abundance, we do not have growing ties to each
other. I support net neutrality regulations.
Of course, I could be wrong.
June 15, 2006
Just in time for the 4th...
Go
ahead, guess.
Nope, it's a hail cannon.
Really. They can be a tad noisy too.
Do they work? Color me skeptical. If they do work, that could
be a problem also.
In
Colorado, where Fort Lupton and Brighton are the only other places
where farmers use cannons, the research on whether they actually work
is slim, said Nolan Doesken of Colorado State University’s
Colorado
Climate Center.
“Without some solid data, it is really hard to judge one way
or the other,” he said.
But the World Meteorological Organization dismisses cannons as
nonsense, saying that “there is neither a scientific basis
nor a
credible hypothesis to support such activities.”
A pair of Dutch meteorologists recently published a study
concluding that cannons have “no significant
effect” on hail. If rocket
explosions and thunder can’t destroy hailstones, they wrote,
“it
follows that surface-emitted sound waves . . . will be even less
effective — except maybe to annoy the neighborhood.”
One thing for sure. They sell.
[Is it my imagination or does that place look pretty unlikely for any
kind of precip at all?]
[via Metafilter]
******
Oh yeah,
well I'm 300 percent
against it!...
One of the
things the French are best at is cooking. Another is arguing.
Right now they are getting a double work-out.
It seems some chefs are
"cheating":
Science fiction? No, this is the
reality in many French restaurants,
which are “cheating” their customers with a growing
range of artificial
products, according to gastronomic purists. They say that the use of
flavourings to enhance the taste of otherwise ordinary dishes is
misleading because they are rarely mentioned on the menu.
Mostly it has to do with truffles - a kinda mushroom that
has gotten way expensive.
Anyhoo, the experts are
not amused.
M Robuchon, widely considered to
be one of the most talented chefs of
the past 20 years, agreed. He said: “I am 200 per cent
against the use
of artificial flavours and additives.” However, such flavours
appear to
be an increasingly common ingredient in French cuisine, with chefs
looking for quick, cheap recipes.
Looks like French math scores
aren't improving either.
******
Why soccer didn't catch on in the US...
Wish
I had written this.
******
Required Bird Flu
posting...
Just because it's petered out as a pandemic doesn't mean I don't
really, really care about bird flu. In fact, here is how you can use that free T-shirt
from the herbicide company to save your life:
Such
a mask is a poor defence against influenza, except perhaps when used by
trained
health care workers, Dato said in a telephone interview.
"If
it's really needed, you actually have the mask on and you are next to
somebody
who has influenza, then that mask is catching influenza droplets. So
then when
you are done with it, it is really contaminated," she said.
"It
has to be appropriately washed, cleaned maybe with some bleach. It is
somewhat
like a dirty diaper (but) at least a dirty diaper that has poop in it,
you can
see that it is contaminated and you don't put it in your pocketbook."
OK,
maybe not the best
simile, but you get the idea
June 13, 2006
Fire sale on SUV's...
Is
your gas-guzzling SUV draining your discretionary cash? You
are not alone. Seems like many people are looking for a way out of their
700-month lease on a Ford Explosion.
The responsible solution would be to
advertise the car for
sale, pay off the loan and switch to a more affordable ride (even
leased cars can
be bought and then sold to get out of high payments). The irresponsible
solution some people choose is to burn the vehicle and let the
insurance
company pay what is owed.
Could we
call this "carson"?
Vehicle
arson has had a long and occasionally
humorous track record over the years. In Texas,
a car salesman was arrested after offering his customers what he called
a
"rotisserie program." He would have their cars torched; then, after
they collected on the insurance, he sold them a new car. In another
part of the
state, two students were arrested after they torched their high school
teacher's car in exchange for passing grades.
What is it
with Texans?
******
Pretty soon cabbies in
the Bronx will be investors...
For a sense how the non-farm world looks at ethanol, check out this business report.
******
Just for fun...
No
idea what is going on here.
******
And the lion and
the lamb, etc....
You
gotta give them credit - the animal rightists know how to play the
emotion heartstrings of typical Americans. Photos like this:
clog up a website that injects anthropomorphism into our
relationship with other species.
The human characteristics
commonly ascribed to animals in popular
culture usually centers on either their perceived personality or
disposition (for example, owls are usually designated as wise); their appearance alone (penguins are usually portrayed as plump aristocrats, because their plumage resembles a tuxedo); or a combination of both (raccoons are commonly portrayed as bandits,
both because of the characteristic black stripe over their eyes, which
resembles the stereotypical mask of a bandit, and because they roam at
night, sometimes breaking into peoples' garbage). It should be noted,
however, that such personification can be modern or ancient. For
example, foxes
are portrayed as cunning and have been for thousands of years, but
penguins were not widely known of before the 20th century and so all
anthropomorphic behaviour associated with them is modern.
Is it
me, or does the cat look a little unexcited?
******
Gosh, it's getting
thirsty in here...
While we may see the world as a constant battle between good and evil,
or conservatives and liberal, or Cubs and Cardinals, or farmers and
government, it turns out the
struggle has actually been between beer and wine.
The history books usually consider the
rise and fall of Rome merely in
terms of
politics, territories, military campaigns, and personalities. They
never
consider the fate and influence of beer in the movement of society and
events.
The Germanic primitives, so underrated by Rome,
also represented the power of beer, while the Roman rulers of the
then-universe
also represented the power of wine. Because the beer drinkers prevailed
in
central and northern Europe
and the wine
drinkers did not, beer was to take on a significance in the daily lives
of the
people that otherwise it might not have had. As the brew arose to
become mighty
in the post-Roman world—a world soon to be Germanic,
Christian, and feudal—it
also became the object of political and military affairs that helped to
shape
the destiny of that continent and, thus, of the world that we have
inherited
today as we start the third millennium. Strangely, beer's first big
move to
social and political prominence came during a period of roughly five
centuries
that are generally considered to be among the most stagnant in human
affairs,
the Dark Ages, when it became the preeminent domain of cloistered brew
monks
and nuns ... but that is another tale.
Sounds
like a win-win for me!
******
Gee, I wonder who will
get the blame?...
The good news: men are closing
the longevity gap with women. Thanks to
heart-bypasses, cholesterol meds, and seat belts, men are finally
starting to die more slowly.
In an otherwise interesting report, this odd note among the
advice to men who want to live longer:
--Get
a wife, a partner or at least a lot of friends. Married men live
longer. (Their wives
die sooner than single women, but that's a different
column.) People with close friends and relatives live
longer, too, Butler
says.
[My emphasis]
But if you want a wife in Japan, be prepared to fork out plenty for a pseudo-church wedding - all the
rage among young Japanese too busy to find their own partners.
A
giant industry is at work getting the record number of unmarried
Japanese to
the altar. Computer-dating agencies say that they are taking over the
role of
the traditional nakodo,
or
match-maker, usually an aunt or busybody neighbour. Haruyuki Fujieda, a
senior
executive at Zwei, one of the biggest agencies, says research shows
that over
four-fifths of all singles between 24 and 44 do not choose to be
unmarried, but
are too busy to have found the right partner.
Meanwhile, the birth rate plummets. Could there be a connection??
(I liked the part about
the fake priest.)
June 11, 2006
Where is global warming when
you need it?...
62?
62 measly degrees of Fahrenheitness? You call
that a daily high for June 11?
Meanwhile my wretched, tiny crops shiver in the arctic blasts.
It's a good thing I'm
not a postal worker.
******
Ummm - how 'zactly will
that work?...
I was thinking on the planter the other day about all the changes the
ethanol boom is going to cause for farmers and everybody else in the
US. One of the
big motivations behind renewable fuels is the idea of energy
independence. I think it is safe to read that as
independence from nasty ol' Arab oil.
The idea here is somehow we have gotten ourselves in a subservient
position to cultures we loathe and our goal is to once again be able to
scorn Mideast oil producers with American impunity.
Regardless of the merit of this goal, my musing centered on
how we seem to be going about it.
The idea, if I get it right, is we will produce all this ethanol which
will then replace gasoline in the marketplace and hence oil from sandy
places. So far, so good.
But here is where I need help. If we churn out billions of
gallons of ethanol which does truly reduce the demand for gasoline, HOW DO WE REPLACE ONLY ARAB
OIL?
Here is what I have doped out (the operative word being "dope"):
First, most of our oil is indeed imported: 60%
[BTW - this is really
good oil info site]
However, most of the
sources are NOT Arabs:
Top Suppliers of U.S. Crude Oil 2004
(Thousand barrels/day)
|
Rank
|
Country of Origin |
Thousand Barrels/day
|
|
1
|
Canada |
1,616 |
|
2
|
Mexico |
1,598 |
|
3
|
Saudi Arabia |
1,495 |
|
4
|
Venezuela |
1,297 |
|
5
|
Nigeria |
1,078 |
|
6
|
Iraq |
655 |
|
7
|
Angola |
306 |
|
8
|
Kuwait |
241 |
|
9
|
United Kingdom |
238 |
|
10
|
Ecuador |
232 |
|
11
|
Algeria |
215 |
|
12
|
Russia |
158 |
|
13
|
Norway |
143 |
|
14
|
Colombia |
142 |
|
15
|
Gabon |
142 |
|
16
|
Argentina |
59 |
|
17
|
Brazil |
51 |
|
18
|
Trinidad and Tobago |
49 |
|
19
|
Indonesia |
34 |
|
20
|
Australia |
21 |
|
21
|
Libya |
18 |
|
22
|
Cameroon |
18 |
|
23
|
Guatemala |
18 |
|
24
|
Malaysia |
18 |
|
25
|
Brunei |
15 |
|
26
|
China,
People’s Republic of |
14 |
|
27
|
Congo (Kinshasa) * |
14 |
|
28
|
Oman |
10 |
|
29
|
Congo (Brazzaville) |
8 |
|
30
|
United Arab
Emirates |
5 |
|
31
|
Ivory Coast |
5 |
|
32
|
Qatar |
4 |
|
33
|
Yemen |
4 |
|
34
|
Denmark |
2 |
|
35
|
Peru |
1 |
|
36
|
Syria |
1 |
|
37
|
Thailand |
1 |
|
|
Other |
158 |
|
|
Total |
10,088 |
|
|
Persian Gulf ** |
2,400 |
Includes crude oil imported for
storage in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Source: EIA.doe.gov
In fact, if you label Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Algeria
as "undesirable" sources, that adds up to about 22% of our
imports or roughly 13% of our usage.
[I don't count Qatar, because they refuse to buy a "u"]
Stay with me.
So how do we replace Arab oil and not Canada oil, eh? For that matter, how do we know
we won't replace domestic production? If that
happened we could
end up even more dependent on foreign oil!!
And there is no
guarantee that it won't happen.
As near as I can figure out, the marketplace for oil will continue to
favor low-cost producers. Just like low cost farmers can pay
higher cash rents, low cost oil producers can endure dropping oil
prices better than high-cost producers. Since the US is a
relatively high-cost producer and SA is the Walmart of Oil, falling
demand for oil and the consequent lower prices will stop pumps
everywhere else before the Saudis say "uncle".
Even if oil prices simply remain unchanged, how the heck do we pick out
those barrels of oil that came from Saudi Arabia?
My conclusion: you can't
muscle out the lowest cost producer. We should
know that from our own business experience. Which means that
energy independence or at least "Arab"
independence is a pipe[line] dream. I'm not the first guy to figure this out
either.
In fact, the only good examples of "energy independence" seem to be
countries that have focused on controlling consumption, like Denmark.
This doesn't mean ethanol
is a bad idea. It just means we can lay off the stupid
"sheik and camel" cartoons, maybe.
******
How many Long John
Silver's are there anyway?...
Somebody asked me at church today if I was going to brew my own biodiesel.
Maybe someday, but first I want to master the perfect martini. I know I
wouldn't put anything I had manufactured myself in a $200,000 tractor.
My JD dealer agrees.
But lots of other people are getting into the backyard biodiesel business.
Mostly they are using free
waste cooking oil - which is a big plus for the input cost
problem.
Unfortunately, that waste oil already had users and they are not
amused, so biodieselers are getting some pushback
from the rendering industry.
Can you imagine the bizarre schemes Americans will come up with if gas
prices go to $4?
[via Metafilter]
******
Photo for the Day...
[More here]
June 9, 2006
The Kelo decision - the case
everybody lost...
The
glacial schedule of our legal system too often turns out useless
results. The now-infamous Kelo
vs. New London decision, which has been
interpreted with shock by many state governments as an erosion of
property rights, has generated a mess in Connecticut.
The
point here is not to play gotcha
with Pfizer but to demonstrate that economic circumstances can change
radically
in a relatively brief period of time, and while private companies are
capable
of adapting, governments (and in particular "private-public
partnerships") are not. Governments can react, however, as the NLDC
is also finding out. The brutality with which the Fort
Trumbull
residents were removed has shocked the nation, and Connecticut Gov.
Jodi M.
Rell, a wavering
supporter
of the homeowners, has a strong disincentive to sink more
money—beyond the $15
million that's already going to the Coast Guard museum—into
the town of 25,000.
Regardless of whether the ruling was sound law, it is bad economics and
even worse business. One of the crucial reasons the US is losing some
competitive advantage globally is our increasing dependence on public
policy to substitute for entrepreneurship.
While we seek to have government mitigate risks our competitors are
placing bets with their own money and beating us to the punch. Eminent domain is cumbersome,
unfair and expensive. For those reasons alone - not to
mention the political questions - it is best used as a last resort.
As the world speeds up we may need less, not more government - simply
because it cannot respond in time to be effective.
Perhaps
there is a parallel here for farm policy.
******
But do they make a work
boot?...
[via BoingBoing]
Your prayers are answered - sandals with a built-in bottle opener!
Be careful what you walk through first, of course.
BTW - I think a top federal
legislative priority
should be to require non-twist off bottle caps to be fluorescent
orange to
indicate at a glance which ones are hand-shredders.
******
Nobody is keeping score...
All
those blowhards on TV who offer predictions and supposedly informed
analysis do know one thing: they seldom get held to their own words.
Like weather forecasters, pundits can take refuge in the idea
that almost nobody either remembers what they
promised would occur or will take the trouble to check the
record. [I know I
count on it]
One reason is our craving for entertainment.
Shoot-from-the-lip commentators are simply more
interesting to most of the public than sober, balanced and much more accurate
experts. Compare Darrell Good (more coffee,please)
to Sue Martin (beans in the 'teens?).
Imagine your job as a media executive
depends on expanding
your viewing audience. Whom would you pick: an expert who balances
conflicting
arguments and concludes that the likeliest outcome is more of the same,
or an
expert who gets viewers on the edge of their seats over radical
Islamists
seizing control and causing oil prices to soar?
Feel free to bring up my wildly inaccurate past utterances.
Quite honestly, I don't remember what I said most of the
time.
Hey - you'll be
middle-aged too someday!
******
The way we were...
Peter Feldstein set out
to photograph every last person in Oxford , Iowa. Two decades
later, he's doing it again, creating a unique portrait of heartland
America. [more from Smithsonian]
What a hoot - time-lapse
photography of an entire community!
We'll keep you updated.
[via BoingBoing]
June 7, 2006
Fool me once...
Remember
the last crop report? Many of you digested the surprises more
rapidly with help from Top Producer market analyst Jerry
Gulke. Check this Friday after 8:15 (Central) for
his breakdown, along with a Player-to-be-Named-Later from Doane's
Agricultural Service.
******
Another job that looks so cool from a distance...
Follow Top Producer of
the Year Chad Olsen as he cuts the wheat harvest from
Oklahoma to North Dakota. Check his blog for updates on this
nomadic life.
******
It's all about personal
security...
If, like me you are terrified of Inappropriate Guys rooting through
your garbage, you may have bought a shredder. [Personally, there are
times when having my identity stolen sounds like a favor.]
But what about your old
car you just traded off?
The perfect answer here.
******
Free
entertainment - great seats...
Noctilucent clouds. Even
if you aren't into the celestial display, it's a groovy word to insert
into a casual conversation.
******
Let's make a deal...
It turns out that we are all into barter. The arrival of eBay
and similar Web-based commerce is changing the way we choose our
purchases.
For example, if you know you will have a reasonable market for an
expensive item after say 2 years, wouldn't you be more likely to
splurge on a really upscale choice?
“As
a society, we’re evolving into one of temporary
ownership,” says Mr Nissanoff, who recently started a luxury
trading site called Portero.com. “We used to buy and hold
everything, let it gather dust or break, and then we threw it
away.” Because people realise that the value of goods decline
over time, they will start parting with them while they still have
value—and use the money they make to upgrade.
This aftermarket not only exists, it is booming.
On the flip side, if you simply want to buy "up" you can find
steeply discounted high-quality to-die-for brands much more easily.
The
world is becoming one big garage sale.
June 5, 2006
Business as usual,
terror-wise...
New
Yawkers are outraged at the reallocation of Homeland Security funds
away from NYC to places like Omaha.
Omaha??
Homeland
Security officials insist Fort Lauderdale and Orlando are up for
substantial increases because they are tourist destinations. Memphis made the list because of the
cargo
passing through it. But Omaha
(up 38 percent)? [More here]
And for good reason, we
farmers say...
Our idea of fairness when it comes to federal $$$ is one-for-me-one-for-you
(regardless of actual risks). To be sure, we have tried our
best to make agri-terrorism pretty scary sounding, but even the guys in
Iowa have a hard time keeping a straight face when claiming we are at
risk of a terrorist attack. Agri-hysterical announcements like this would be laughable in
any other industry:
There have been at least five
acts of agri-terrorism in the United States and 17 worldwide. [For 5
bonus points , name one] In one attack, a radical group
released Mediterranean fruit flies in California. The Medfly
attacks more than 250 varieties of fruits, nuts and vegetables. A similar
attack with a corn or soybean pest could devastate South Dakota’s
agriculture industry. [Exactly
what pest could they use that Ms. Nature is not already using?]
[my comments]
The idea of agriterrorism is pretty far-fetched [I will allow eco-loons and
animal rightists as minor irritants], but not so ethereal
as to write off as a way to add some federal moola to the local
economy. Plus if a seemingly credible threat can be implanted in the
minds of rural worriers, we can sell them some insurance.
The odds of a mildly serious threat to food and water supplies is
minuscule however, just because of the daunting problem of widely
dispersed targets. Plus at the end of the day, is a poisoned pig farm
as scary as a subway explosion?
I find this bickering over federal aid reassuring. If homeland security
is now just another pork barrel industry - and I think that is where we have
arrived - it means most Americans are less scared
than they are looking for an angle.
In short, America is getting back to being America. While I never doubted we could get over
9/11, I am reassured to see us shrug off the fear-mongering of
politicians and media to take the time to pick their pockets.
******
Confucius predicts partly
cloudy...
The Chinese aren't just talking about the weather - they are changing
it. Or so they say.
And why not? The central-government
leadership—dominated
by engineers—has been messing with Mother Nature ever since
the Chinese
Communist Party came to power. They’ve built the
world’s biggest dam, the
world’s highest railway and even the world’s
biggest Ferris wheel (in Nanchang, still
awaiting
verification from the Guinness World Records). Why not perfect the
science of
climate control?
I'd laugh, but why do
I have the odd feeling that weather
rockets
will soon be sold at Walmart?
******
Shared
talent...
More here
******
For
the record...
I think I
am done planting.
No promises.
June 2, 2006, Take 2
No comment needed...
[via
Neatorama]
******
Those who do not know their
history...
The
current disaffection of Americans for
their collective future has been amply expressed in several polls, but perhaps should not be
such a surprise after all. we may have been here before:
If one
counts only the size of houses and cars, and
the numbers of electronic gadgets stuffed into rec rooms, Americans are
probably better off than ever before. But as the 1870's suggest,
economic
well-being doesn't come just from piling up toys. An economy has
psychological
or, if you will, spiritual, dimensions. A conviction of fairness, a
feeling of
not being totally on one's own, a sense of reasonable stability and
predictability are all essential components of good economic
performance. When
they were missing in the 1870's, in the midst of a boom, the populace
was
brought to the brink of revolt.
[More
here]
I
have found my own
response to current conditions more than a little surprising.
We
are doing well, albeit due to a subsidy-riddled business environment
that dilutes any sense of accomplishment. While I have been
dismayed by the war in Iraq, I was not that crazy about it in the first
place, but like too many of us, let
it slide.
My bad.
But for those of us who remember the Carter "malaise"*
there are eerie similarities. Many of us doubt the permanence
of
our present prosperity. It could be that the extreme
disparity
of distribution of benefits - regardless
of the overall boost to the collective good - makes us
unable to enjoy the good times.
Fairness is likely hard-wired into our brains.
But maybe not our
leaders'.
*To my surprise,
President Carter never used the word "malaise":
On
July 15,
1979,
Carter gave a nationally-televised address in which he identified what
he believed to be a "crisis of confidence" among the American people.
This has come to be known as his "malaise" speech, even though he did
not use the word "malaise" anywhere in the text:
- I want to talk to you right now about a fundamental threat
to American democracy.... I do not refer to the outward strength of
America, a nation that is at peac