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2014 P&K Demand Projections

September 27, 2013
By: Davis Michaelsen, Pro Farmer Inputs Monitor Editor

We discussed nitrogen numbers earlier this week in our article '2014 Nitrogen Demand to Increase as Acreage Estimates Surface'. But that analysis failed to bring to light our P&K findings against the same projected planted acreage data. Let me point out again that the prospective planted acreage numbers are very early and preliminary at best. However, in a year when so many are expecting continued price declines declines, the rubber has to meet the road at some point, and forward thinking growers need hard data.

MosaicCo has been saying for months that they expect lower demand year-over for P&K. On the basis of lowered acres to corn, the assumption is that NPK demand will follow, but the early numbers we have seen show significant increases in wheat and cotton plantings with wheat up 3 million acres and cotton up 1 million over 2013 plantings.

Cotton can be very K intensive in certain soils, and the 2014 boost in acreage may move more potash than was previously expected. If enough unexpected demand shows up in the spring, prices will increase in response to supply constraints.

Current expectations based on expected planted acreage data adds up to demand to the tune of 4.7 million product tons of potash.

2014 Crop
MOP Application rate/acre
Projected 2014 Planted acres
K product tons
Corn
35lbs
92,500,000
2,697,917
Wheat
30lbs
56,719,000
1,417,975
Cotton
60lbs
11,218,000
560,900
Total    
4,676,792

 

Phosphate has turned higher in the last week and manufacturers' expectations are for demand to soften compared to last year. At this stage of the game, projected acres support that notion with current expected demand in the neighborhood of 7.5 million product tons of phosphate.

2014 Crop
DAP Application rate/acre
Projected 2014 Planted acres
P product tons
Corn
50lbs
92,500,000
5,027,174
Wheat
35lbs
56,719,000
2,157,788
Cotton
25lbs
11,218,000
304,837
Total    
7,489,799

 

Combined, the two add up to 12,166,591 tons of P&K, roughly 4 million tons below last year. As corn futures explore the downside, P&K users may wait until spring as farmers hold out for corn to rally and give the go-ahead to extend finances on P&K.


 

 

 

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