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ALERT 6/11/2013: Bearish Natgas, Missouri N&P and Nebraska NH3

June 11, 2013
By: Davis Michaelsen, Pro Farmer Inputs Monitor Editor

Missouri sports some decent declines in this week's Index. MO anhydrous fell $22.65 to $759.05/ton. Phosphate pricing in MO also fell strongly -- DAP softened $19.56 to $604.81 and MAP fell $29.11 to $626.69. All of these values are well below the regional averages and signal a chance to book some anhydrous for fall or for sidedress in Missouri, and phosphate for fall.

Nebraska also notes declines in anhydrous where the average price fell $22.65/ton to $759.05. Again, these prices are below regional averages, signaling a buying opportunity in Nebraska.

Natural gas is on a pedal-to-the-metal bear run, opening today at $3.79 and trailing -- currently (11:30 am CT) at $3.767. Natural gas demand for grain dryers could be high at harvest and if you have yet to pull the trigger on booking 50% natgas needs for that purpose, check prices at your preferred supplier.

EIA projections expect natgas to average $3.68 in 2013 -- so far averaging $3.658 year to date -- but experts disagree saying production has already slowed as margins are thin upstream at these pricing levels, favoring a $4.00 handle by year's end. However, the industry is very near outrunning its storage capacity, and in the absence of exports in earnest or a real home for natural gas, demand features may see EIA's $3.68 realized.

But the year-to-date average natgas price remains below EIA projections, suggesting upside potential.


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