The Australian Bureau of Meteorology says climate indicators across the tropical Pacific Ocean remain neutral, but models suggest waters will continue to warm. Most models (but not all) suggest sea surface temperatures will approach or exceed El Nino thresholds during the second half of 2012 and no models favor a return to La Nina.
"The recent warming trend in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures that led to the demise of the 2011-12 La Nina continued in the last fortnight, but temperatures remain within the neutral range," it states. "All dynamical models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific will continue to warm over the next six months. Four of the six models surveyed are suggesting an increased risk of warm (i.e., El Nino) conditions developing in the coming (Southern Hemisphere) winter-spring."