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Evening Report (VIP) -- August 30, 2013

August 30, 2013

MARKETS AND GOVERNMENT OFFICES CLOSED MONDAY... Markets and government offices will be closed on Monday, Sept. 2, for Labor Day. There will be no Pro Farmer updates on Monday, but we'll be back to cover weekend market developments (session begins Monday at 7:00 p.m. CT) with "First Thing Today" on Tuesday morning. Your Pro Farmer editors wish you a happy and safe Labor Day weekend.

 

STRESSFUL WEEK FOR CROPS, BUT NO ADJUSTMENT TO YIELDS, YET... Corn and soybean crops were under severe stress this week as summer finally arrived in the Midwest in the last week of August. The heat exposed many of the issues cooler temps hid during pollination and very early stages of kernel and pod fill. Shallow-rooted crops were the first to show stress, but even earlier-planted crops with the best yield potential were stressed this week.

After issuing national average corn and soybean yield estimates following the Midwest Crop Tour, we’re normally "comfortable" with estimates for at least three weeks. This year, the comfort barely lasted three days! Nonetheless, we’re sticking with the corn yield estimate of 154.1 bu. per acre on corn and 41.8 bu. per acre on soybeans, for now. Click here to see what editors Chip Flory and Brian Grete had to say about the crops just one week after returning from the Crop Tour.

 

IGC RAISES GLOBAL TOTAL GRAINS CARRYOVER SLIGHTLY... The International Grains Council (IGC) raised its 2013-14 global total grains carryover forecast by 3 MMT to 365 MMT, which represents a 37-MMT increase from last season and to within 1 MMT of 2011-12 levels. IGC left global wheat ending stocks unchanged at 176 MMT (174 MMT in 2012-13) and raised total global corn carryover by 2 MMT to 150 MMT (121 MMT in 2012-13). IGC lowered its 2013-14 soybean carryover forecast by 1 MMT to 32 MMT, which represents a 6-MMT increase from the previous season.

For wheat, IGC raised its global production forecast by 4 MMT to 691 MMT due to increases for China, the EU, Kazakhstan and Ukraine. For corn, it raised its global production forecast by 3 MMT to 945 MMT, led by an increase in the United States.

 

IGC SEES 5% INCREASE IN BRAZILIAN SOYBEAN ACREAGE... Also this morning, IGC said it expects a 5% increase in Brazilian soybean acreage for 2013-14 to a record 29 million hectares. IGC says higher soybean acreage is likely due to stronger prices for soybeans compared with competing crops and the depreciation of the Brazilian currency.

The report states, "In addition to the potential for increased cultivation in central and eastern regions, due to the conversion of pasture lands for example, part of any increase in Brazil’s soybean plantings in 2013-14 is likely to result from farmers switching from main or full-season maize in southern areas. With seeding of the maize crop in southern regions already having been delayed by cold weather, and with reports suggesting that domestic values barely cover production costs in some areas, this could be a key factor in encouraging farmers to plant more soybeans later this year. This is especially likely in the states of Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul."

 

PETERSON TALKS HOUSE FARM BILL STRATEGY... House Ag Committee Ranking Member Collin Peterson (D-Minn.) was a guest Thursday on the Valley News Live (Fargo, N.D.) Point of View television program with Chris Berg, who asked Peterson: ..."Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.), was in Williston, North Dakota with Congressman Kevin Cramer. He said Speaker of the House John Boehner (R-Ohio) will appoint members of a conference committee on the farm bill in September after passing a bill dealing with food stamps. So obviously with your experience, your expertise and what you’re hearing from you colleagues, is that going to happen?"

Peterson responded, "Yes. Boehner told me and Lucas, the chairman, right before we left, that they were going to vote on food stamps and then no matter what happens on that vote — and they weren’t sure if they can pass it — he’s going to appoint conferees right afterwards. And then he said to us I want this done by Sept. 30, so he wants the bill done. Boehner has never been the problem. Cantor has been kind of playing ball with the Club for Growth and the Heritage people that want to cut food stamps, but in addition, they also want to get rid of farm programs, and that’s the main reason they wanted to split this, is that they don’t think they can get rid of farm programs or significantly cut them unless they split it off from food stamps, because you’ve got some of the Democrats voting with us on the farm programs, so this has been going on."

Peterson continued that he thinks Cantor is "making our job a lot harder" and that the vote on food stamps is "going to alienate people that are potentially going to be needed to pass the bill in the end." Further, he said that Senate Ag Committee Ranking Member Thad Cochran (R-Miss.) wants no cuts to food stamps, which would make conference difficult.

Peterson added, "I think we’re going to get a bill out of conference that maybe has $10 billion cuts in food stamps at the most. The question at that point then is how many Republicans will vote for that? And so say, you know, we can probably get 150 Democrats, potentially, but 75 Republicans, can Boehner put that on the floor?"

Meanwhile, some say there is still no firm plan for the farm bill in the House. Learn more.

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