Apr 21, 2014
Home| Contact Us| Sign UpLogin
 

Inputs Monitor Regional Index: Anhydrous Ticks Higher as Urea Spirals

November 4, 2013
By: Davis Michaelsen, Pro Farmer Inputs Monitor Editor

Declines tallied $19.78 to gains' $7.60. Anhydrous, MAP and UAN32% moved higher on the week while DAP, potash, UAN28% and urea declined. As we saw last week, most states held basically firm, but those that did move pulled regional averages one way or the other. Urea refuses to settle in and farm diesel moves lower as LP creeps higher.

Corn Futures -- DSC 0093 (2)

Today, the Dec14 corn futures contract (ZCZ14) opened at $4.66. Based on that, expected new-crop revenue lies at $705.60/acre at 160 bu.

The ZCZ/NH3 spread thinned 27.58 points on the week and currently lies at -24.95 with Dec14 futures on top. The supply chain standoff has to come to an end at some point here and as harvest wraps up, anhydrous made up half the difference between itself and corn futures just this week alone. Another week like this for anhydrous would have NH3 and ZCZ14 new-crop revenue very near parity.

However, urea has been the proven driver of nitrogen pricing, but this price leader cannot seem to find comfortable price levels. As an example, a short ton of Iowa urea over the last five weeks has gone from $512 to $457 to $491 to $523 to land this week at $497.56/st.

Of Note --

We stopped short of a full-on alert on Friday, but farm diesel pricing has given some ground lately, and warrants a top-off in select states. Click here for Friday's post.

Indiana has joined the ranks of states with Hours of Service Waivers in place to allow LP delivery truck drivers to keep grain dryers humming. Delivery constraints continue to plague LP demand and snow is forecast through the northern belt over the coming week. This will pressure LP supplies as bushels run through the dryer out of the field and citizens reach for the thermostat and turn up the heat. So far the price response from LP has been minimal, but an industry official told your Monitor he see prices moving 10-15 cents higher near-term.

If you are in an LP supply pinch, get in touch with your preferred retailer today. Deliveries may take awhile to get to you, but if you can lock in today's price, when the refill does come around, you will be hedged against a price spike.

-----------------------------

Regionally --

Anhydrous firms $3.40 to $680.65; UAN28 down $4.28 week-over to $322.34; UAN32 firms $1.69 to $341.92; Urea $9.79 lower to $452.43.

DAP $2.71 lower to $524.02; MAP $2.50 higher to $559.20. Potash falls $2.97 to $483.18.

Farm diesel down 1/4 cent to $3.447 -- 33 1/4 cents below year-ago. LP firmed 3/4 cent to $1.583 -- 16 3/4 cents above year-ago.

Nutrient/Fuel
10/21/13
10/28/13
Week-over Change
Current Week
Year-Ago
Anhydrous
$712.96
$675.47
+$3.40
$680.65
$861.75
DAP
$534.09
$526.73
-$2.71
$524.02
$653.75
MAP
$568.38
$556.70
+$2.50
$559.20
$667.58
Potash
$493.49
$486.15
-$2.97
$483.18
$604.00
UAN28
$322.74
$326.62
-$4.28
$322.34
$380.58
UAN32
$361.58
$340.23
+$1.69
$341.92
$441.66
Urea
$464.34
$462.22
-$9.79
$452.43
$587.50
Farm Diesel
$3.465
$3.449
-1/4 cent
$3.424
$3.778
LP
$1.595
$1.575
+3/4 cent
$1.583
$1.416
Composite
384.742
375.462
-1.153
374.309
466.891

 

Last year's pricing was well above today's peg with NH3 now $181.10 below year-ago; DAP $127.02 below; MAP $108.38 below year ago; Potash $120.82 below; UAN28% $53.96 below year-ago; UAN32% $99.74 below and urea currently $135.07 below the same time last year.

Anhydrous Action --

Three of our twelve states surveyed moved lower on anhydrous during the report week with four states unchanged, and five moving higher. The biggest moves were in Iowa and Michigan with both moving higher. Declines were limited mostly to a handful of nickels and with so many states unchanged, the implication is upward movement across the board near-term for NH3.

State NH3
Previous Week
Change
Current Week
Iowa
$654.07
+$16.41
$670.48
Illinois
$689.94
-$9.37
$680.57
Indiana
$709.79
-$0.58
$709.21
Wisconsin
$695.95
unchanged
$695.95
Minnesota
$657.93
+$1.14
$659.07
South Dakota
$691.76
unchanged
$691.76
North Dakota
$663.78
-$1.23
$662.55
Nebraska
$610.23
+$6.69
$616.92
Missouri
$644.33
unchanged
$644.33
Kansas
$609.03
+$0.94
$609.97
Ohio
$695.00
unchanged
$695.00
Michigan
$823.89
+$8.21
$832.10

 


 Photo credit: D. Michaelsen, Inputs Monitor

 

See Comments

RELATED TOPICS: Inputs

 
Log In or Sign Up to comment

COMMENTS

No comments have been posted



Name:

Comments:



Information to help you               make great decisions

Land management

Track your local input prices.

Risk management strategies