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Jim's Morning Markets Report--July 25

July 25, 2013
By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer Technical Consultant

Thursday, July 25--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In scanning my price screen this morning I see mostly red
numbers (lower prices), which suggests a "risk-off" day in
the market place Thursday—even though there were no major
developments on the world economic or geopolitical front
overnight. European and North American traders have likely
entered the summertime doldrums, in which trading enthusiasm
wanes as many traders and investors gear up for their annual
family vacations. In overnight news, the German Ifo business
confidence index rose for the third month in a row during
July. The reading was 106.2 in July from 105.9 in June.
Still, the European stock markets were mostly weaker due to
a batch of disappointing corporate earnings reports just
released. Asian stock markets were also mostly weaker
Thursday. U.S. economic data due for release Thursday
includes the weekly jobless claims report, durable goods
orders and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.--Jim
   
U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are weaker early today on some mild
profit-taking pressure. Bulls still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight
high of 1,684.20 and then at this week’s high of 1,695.50.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at the overnight
low of 1,672.00 and then at 1,666.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower early today
on profit taking. The bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at the overnight high of 3,053.50 and then at this
week’s high of 3,060.00. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at
3,035.00 and then at this week’s low of 3,023.50. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 4.5.

Dow futures: Prices are weaker early today on profit taking.
Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage.
Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
15,500 and then at the record high of 15,545. Sell stops
likely reside just below technical support at 15,400 and
then at 15,350. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady early today.
Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at the overnight high of 134 12/32 and
then at 135 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight
low of 133 25/32 and then at this week’s low of 133 16/32.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today.
Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at the overnight high of 126.16.0 and
then at 126.24.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s
low of 126.03.5 and then at 126.00.0 Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is weaker in early U.S.
trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 82.500 and then at this
week’s high of 82.740. Shorter-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 82.145 and then at 82.000. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are lower again early today, on profit
taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage, but are fading. In September Nymex crude, look
for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the
overnight high of $105.44 and then at $106.00. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at the overnight low of
$104.42 and then at $104.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were near steady to lower in overnight trading. The
August soybean futures contract was sharply lower. Corn and
wheat futures remain in deep bear markets, while new-crop
soybean bulls and bears struggle for near-term control. The
U.S. Corn Belt has received beneficial rains the past few
days, and temperatures have cooled down significantly.
That’s bearish. Cash corn and soybean basis levels in the
central U.S. have collapsed, which adds to the bearish tone
in the futures markets. The one bright spot in the grain
markets at present is decent world demand for U.S. grains.
Traders will closely scrutinize Thursday morning’s weekly
USDA export sales report.
 

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