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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--Apr 3

Apr 01, 2013

Wednesday Evening, April 3-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: June live cattle closed up $0.32 at $123.15
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw short
covering in a bear market. Cattle futures bears still have
the overall near-term technical advantage and the bulls
have much work to do to suggest a price uptrend can be
sustained. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at this week’s high of $124.50. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$122.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$123.95 and then at this week’s high of $124.50. First
support is seen at this week’s low of $122.40 and then at
$122.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

May feeder cattle closed down $0.52 at $146.57 today. Price
action today saw profit taking from recent strong gains.
The feeder bulls still have the near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
feeder bulls is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at $150.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at $145.00. First
resistance is seen at $147.00 and then at this week’s high
of $147.70. First support is seen at this week’s low of
$146.00 and then at $145.07. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

June lean hogs closed up $0.60 at $92.45 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today and hit another six-
week high. Prices also scored a bullish "outside day" up on
the daily bar chart today. While the hog bears still have
the overall near-term technical advantage, the hog bulls
have gained upside technical momentum to begin to suggest
that a market bottom is in place. However, the bulls have
more work to do to suggest prices can sustain an uptrend.
The next upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls
is to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at
$93.50. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at
$89.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $92.57
and then at $93.00. First support is seen at $92.00 and
then at $91.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

*. GRAINS: May corn futures closed up 1 cent at $6.41 1/2
Wednesday. Prices closed near mid-range in quieter trading.
Serious chart damage has been inflicted recently and the
bears have the solid technical advantage. Corn bulls' next
upside price objective is to push and close prices above
solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $6.79.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$6.25. First resistance for May corn is seen at Tuesday’s
high of $6.53 3/4 and then at $6.60. First support is seen
at this week’s low of $6.34 and then at $6.30. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.5

May soybeans closed down 14 cents at $13.80 a bushel
Wednesday. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a
fresh 11-week low. The soybean market bears have the near-
term technical advantage and gained more downside momentum
Wednesday. The next near-term upside technical breakout
objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high
of $14.08 1/4 a bushel. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the January low of $13.44. First
resistance is seen at $13.90 and then at Wednesday’s high
of $13.97 1/4. First support is seen at Wednesday’s low of
$13.75 1/2 and then at $13.65. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
3.0.

May soybean meal closed down $4.90 at $397.20 Wednesday.
Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh 11-
week low Wednesday. The bears have the near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at this week’s high of $406.30. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at the
January low of $387.80. First resistance comes in at
$400.00 and then at Wednesday’s high of $402.60. First
support is seen at Wednesday’s low of $395.10 and then at
$392.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

May bean oil closed down 34 points at 49.25 cents
Wednesday. Prices closed near the session low and hit a
fresh three-week low. Bean oil bulls have faded. Bears have
the near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
March high of 51.03 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside
technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at 49.03 cents. First
resistance is seen at 49.50 cents and then at Wednesday’s
high of 49.82 cents. First support is seen at Wednesday’s
low of 49.20 cents and then at 49.03 cents. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.5

May Chicago SRW wheat closed up 23 cents at $6.93 3/4
Wednesday. Prices closed nearer the session high and saw
more short covering in a bear market. The wheat bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat
bulls’ next upside breakout objective is to push and close
Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance at
$7.25 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective
for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at this week’s low of $6.59
3/4. First resistance is seen at $7.00 and then at $7.10.
First support lies at $6.81 and then at Wednesday’s low of
at $6.70 3/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

May HRW wheat closed up 18 3/4 cents at $7.35 1/4
Wednesday. Prices closed nearer the session high and saw
more short covering. HRW bears still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $7.35. The bears' next downside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $7.00. First resistance is seen
at Wednesday’s high of $7.37 1/2 and then at $7.50. First
support is seen at $7.20 and then at Wednesday’s low of
$7.14 1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

May oats closed down 5 cents at $3.62 1/2 Wednesday. Prices
closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh five-week
low. Oats bears now have the slight near-term technical
advantage. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the February low of $3.58 1/4. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $3.80. First support lies at
Wednesday’s low of $3.60 1/2 and then at $3.58 1/4. First
resistance is seen at $3.65 and then at Wednesday’s high of
$3.71. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

*. SOFTS: May sugar closed down 8 points at 17.51 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit
another nearly 2.5-year low. The sugar bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. There are no early
technical clues of a market low being close at hand. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at 18.25 cents.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at 17.00
cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
17.79 cents and then at 18.01 cents. First support is seen
at today’s low of 17.47 cents and then at 17.25 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

May coffee closed up 300 points at 139.15 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and scored a
bullish "outside day" up on the daily bar chart. The coffee
bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
The next upside breakout objective for the bulls is to
close prices above solid technical resistance at this
week’s high of 141.35 cents. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at the contract low of 132.05 cents
a pound. First resistance is seen at 140.00 cents and then
at 141.35 cents. First support is seen at 135.50 cents and
then at today’s low of 135.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.5.

May cocoa closed down $26 at $2,145 a ton today. Prices
closed nearer the session low. The cocoa bears have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at $2,225.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
last week’s low of $2,124. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $2,179 and then at this week’s high of
$2,198. First support is seen at today’s low of $2,130 and
then at $2,124. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

May cotton closed up 21 points at 89.08 cents today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today. The cotton bulls have
the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of 90.27 cents. The next downside price breakout objective
for the cotton bears is to push and close prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of 86.12 cents.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 89.70 cents and
then at 90.27 cents. First support is seen at 88.00 cents
and then at this week’s low of 87.21 cents. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0.

May orange juice closed down 10 points at $1.3945 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. The FCOJ bulls
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is
pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at
the December high of $1.4415. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at this week’s low of
$1.3115. First resistance is seen at $1.4030 and then at
this week’s high of $1.4200. First support is seen at
$1.3800 and then at today’s low of $1.3555. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.5.

May lumber futures closed up $0.40 at $376.30 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today and hit another fresh five-week
low. Bulls still have the slight overall near-term
technical advantage. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at the February low of
$372.50. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at this week’s high of $394.40. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of $378.00 and then at $380.00.
First support is seen at today’s low of $375.00 and then at
$372.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

*. METALS: June gold futures closed down $22.00 an ounce at
$1,553.90 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and hit a fresh 10-month low on heavy technically related
selling. Serious near-term technical damage has been
inflicted this week. The gold bears have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage and have gained strong
downside momentum this week. The gold bulls’ next upside
near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at $1,580.00. Bears' next
near-term downside breakout price objective is closing
prices below solid technical support at the May 2012 low of
$1,545.00. First resistance is seen at $1,560.00 and then
at $1,570.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
$1,549.70 and then at $1,545.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating:
2.0

May silver futures closed down $0.433 an ounce at $26.82
today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today and
hit a fresh nine-month low. Silver bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage as serious near-term
technical damage has been inflicted this week. Bulls’ next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $28.00 an ounce. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at $26.00. First
resistance is seen at $27.00 and then at today’s high of
$27.315. Next support is seen at today’s low of $26.67 and
then at $26.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

May N.Y. copper closed down 480 points at 333.05 cents
today. Prices closed near the session low today and hit a
fresh eight-month low. Copper bears have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at this week’s high of 340.30
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
the August 2012 low of 332.00 cents. First resistance is
seen at 335.00 cents and then at 337.50 cents. First
support is seen at today’s low of 332.95 cents and then at
332.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

*. ENERGIES: May crude oil closed down $2.79 at $94.41
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and were
pressured by a bearish weekly DOE report and by a weaker
U.S. ADP national employment report. Bulls faded badly
today and need to show fresh power soon. Crude oil bulls
still have the slight near-term technical advantage. The
next near-term upside price breakout objective for the
crude oil bulls is producing a close solid chart resistance
at this week’s high of $97.80 a barrel. The next near-term
downside price breakout objective for the crude oil bears
is to produce a close below solid technical support at
$92.00. First resistance is seen at $95.00 and then at
$95.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $94.18 and
then at $93.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

May heating oil closed down 862 points at $3.0023 today.
Prices closed near the session low today. Bears now have
the near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at this week’s high of $3.1044. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is producing a close
below solid technical support at the March low of $2.9551.
First resistance lies at $3.0200 and then at $3.0400. First
support is seen at today’s low of $2.9923 and then at
$2.9750. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

May (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 1,308 points at
$2.9097 today. Prices closed near the session low today and
hit a fresh 2.5-month low. The gasoline bears have quickly
gained the near-term technical advantage today as prices
are in an accelerating seven-week-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective
for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $3.0000. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is closing prices below solid support at the
January low of $2.8757. First resistance is seen at $2.9500
and then at $2.9750. First support is seen at today’s low
of $2.9054 and then at $2.8757. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
3.5.

May natural gas closed down 6.6 cents at $3.902 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today on profit taking
and big losses in the liquid energy futures. Nat gas bulls
still have the near-term technical advantage but have faded
a bit. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
last week’s high of $4.121. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of $3.885. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.985 and then at
this week’s high of $4.044. First support is seen at $3.885
and then at $3.85. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency
closed up 30 points at 1.2852 today. Prices closed nearer
the session high today on short covering in a bear market.
The Euro bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. A two-month-old downtrend is in place on the
daily bar chart. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 1.3000. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid chart support at 1.2700. First resistance for the
Euro lies at this week’s high of 1.2885 and then at 1.2950.
Next support is seen at today’s low of 1.2797 and then at
last week’s low of 1.2758 and then at 1.2700. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0

The June Japanese yen closed up 61 points at 1.0778 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and closed a
fresh four-week high close. While bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage the bulls are working
on a fledgling two-week-old uptrend, to begin to suggest
that a market bottom is in place. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at 1.0900. Bears' next downside breakout objective is
closing prices below solid technical support at the
contract low of 1.0345. First resistance is seen at this
week’s high of 1.0809 and then at 1.0900. First support is
seen at today’s low of 1.0679 and then at this week’s low
of 1.0601 and then at last week’s low of 1.0536. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.5.

The June Swiss franc closed up 50 points at 1.0594 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and scored a
bullish "outside day" up on the daily bar chart. Short
covering was featured. The Swissy bears still have the
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid resistance at the March high of 1.0738. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 1.0300. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0600 and then at
1.0650. First support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0506
and then at the March low of 1.0463. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.0.

The June Australian dollar closed up 15 points at 1.0402
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and did
hit a fresh 2.5-month high early on. Bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-
old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
chart resistance at the January high of 1.0474. The next
downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at 1.0273. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0438 and then at
1.0474. Next support is seen at 1.0363 and then at this
week’s low of 1.0327. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

The June Canadian dollar closed up 2 points at .9840 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls have
gained the slight near-term technical advantage. A four-
week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is producing a close
above chart resistance at .9900. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at .9750. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of .9860 and then at .9900. First support
is seen at .9818 and then at .9800. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.5.

The June British pound closed up 41 points at 1.5142 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh
two-week low early on. Bears still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the March high of 1.5260. Bears'
next downside technical breakout objective is closing
prices below solid support at 1.5000. First resistance is
seen at 1.5200 and then at 1.5260. First support is seen at
today’s low of 1.5069 and then at 1.5019. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.5.

The June U.S. dollar index closed down .247 at 82.845
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Profit
taking was featured. The greenback bulls still have the
near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at last week’s high of 83.520. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at the March low of
81.830. Next resistance lies at 83.000 and then at today’s
high of 83.245. First support is seen at this week’s low of
82.645 and then at 82.500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

June U.S. T-Bonds closed up 30/32 at 145 12/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit another
fresh three-month high. Prices also scored a bullish
"outside day" up on the daily bar chart. Flight-to-quality
buying was seen today, along with buying interest prompted
by a weaker-than-expected ADP national employment report
today. Bond market bulls have the near-term technical
advantage. The next downside price breakout objective for
the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at 143 even. The next upside technical objective
for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at 147 even. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 145 20/32 and then at 146 even. First support is
seen at 145 even and then at 144 16/32. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0.

June U.S. T Notes closed up 15.0 (32nds) at 132.14.5 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh
3.5-month high. Prices also scored a bullish "outside day"
up on the daily bar chart today. Bulls have the near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at 133.00.0. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is producing a close below solid
technical support at last week’s low of 131.03.0. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 132.17.0 and then at
132.24.0. First support is seen at 132.08.0 and then at
132.00.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
solidly lower today. Profit taking and fresh belligerent
talk from North Korea, as well as a weaker-than-expected
ADP national employment report today, all worked to sink
the stock indexes. The Dow and S&P indexes hit new for-the-
move highs this week. Bulls still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage and there ares still no
strong early technical clues to suggest market tops are on
the horizon. The ADP report is a precursor to Friday’s
release of the U.S. Labor Department’s employment situation
report, which is arguably the most important U.S. economic
report of the month. The consensus forecast for that report
had called for the key non-farm payrolls figure to have
risen by 200,000 in March, with the overall unemployment
rate unchanged from the previous month, at 7.7%. The
weaker-than-expected ADP report Wednesday morning now has
many ratcheting back expectations for Friday’s Labor
Department jobs report. In overnight news, there were new
developments on the Cyprus banking crisis front Wednesday.
The island nation reached an agreement with the IMF for an
additional 1 billion Euro "lifeline" loan. There was little
market reaction to that news. Euro zone inflation rose at
its slowest rate in two years in March, at a 1.7%
annualized rate, according to the Euro zone statistics
bureau, Eurostat. There are key central bank meetings of
the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and Bank of
England on Thursday, all of which will be closely monitored
by the market place.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 24.25 at
2,788.25 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today.
Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at the September high of
2,871.75. The bears' next downside price breakout objective
is closing prices below solid technical support at the
March low of 2,711.75. First resistance is seen at 2,800.00
and then at this week’s high of 2,823.00. First support is
seen at today’s low of 2,780.25 and then at 2,750.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 15.90 at 1,548.50.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at the all-time high of 1,586.50. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid support at 1,520.00. First resistance is
seen at this week’s high of 1,568.00 and then at 1,575.00.
First support is seen at today’s low of 1,544.00 and then
at last week’s low of 1,539.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
8.0.

The Dow futures closed down 97 points at 14,487 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. The bulls still
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at 14,750. The next
downside price objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 14,000. First resistance
in the Dow lies at this week’s high of 14,600 and then at
14,650. First support is seen at today’s low of 14,450 and
then at 14,400. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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