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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--April 4

Apr 05, 2012

Wednesday Evening, April 4-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: June live cattle closed down $0.85 at $115.20
today. Prices closed near mid-range again today and hit
another fresh 10.5-month low. The key “outside markets”
were again bearish for the cattle market today, as the U.S.
dollar index was higher and crude oil prices were sharply
lower. Cash cattle prices this week traded solidly lower.
While serious chart damage has been inflicted recently, my
bias is that the cattle market is near a major low. Cattle
futures bears do still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a steep six-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to push and close prices above
solid technical resistance at $117.00. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $114.00.
First resistance is seen at $116.00 and then at today’s
high of $116.25. First support is seen at today’s low of
$114.50 and then at $114.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

May feeder cattle closed down $0.02 at $148.20 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and did hit a
fresh 3.5-month low early on. Bears still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
steep four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
However, this market is also way overdone on the downside
and due for a good corrective bounce very soon. The next
upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to push and
close prices above technical resistance at $152.00. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to
push and close prices below solid technical support at the
December low of $145.30. First resistance is seen at
$149.00 and then at $150.00. First support is seen at
$147.55 and then at $147.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

June lean hogs closed up $0.35 at $92.00 today. Prices
closed near the session high today and saw tepid short
covering in a bear market. The key “outside markets” were
again bearish for the hog market today, as the U.S. dollar
index was higher and crude oil prices were sharply lower.
Serious chart damage has been inflicted recently. Hog
prices are in a steep five-week-old downtrend on the daily
bar chart. Bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. However, my bias is that a market low is in
place or close at hand. The next upside price breakout
objective for the hog bulls is to push and close prices
above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $94.10.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing prices below solid technical support at last week’s
low of $89.85. First resistance is seen at this week’s high
of $92.20 and then at $92.45. First support is seen at
today’s low of $91.40 and then at $91.00. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.0

*. GRAINS: May corn futures closed down 1/4 cent at $6.58
today. Prices closed near mid-range again today. The key
“outside markets” were again bearish for the corn market
today, as the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil
prices were sharply lower. Corn bulls still have the slight
overall near-term technical advantage. Focus of grain
traders now turns to U.S. weather in the Midwest. Corn
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at the March
high of $6.75 3/4. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $6.25. First resistance for May
corn is seen at this week’s high of $6.65 3/4 and then at
$6.70. First support is seen at today’s low of $6.50 3/4
and then at this week’s low of $6.46 1/2. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.5

May soybeans closed up 5 1/4 cents at $14.22 a bushel
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The key “outside
markets” were bearish for the soybean market today, as the
U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil prices were
lower. Yet, bean prices scored gains anyway, which is
another bullish clue. Bean bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Bean prices are in a 3.5-
month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-
term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean
bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the August 2011 high of $14.68 1/2 a bushel.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
last week’s low of $13.51. First resistance is seen at this
week’s high of $14.34 1/4 and then at $14.50. First support
is seen at this week’s low of $14.06 1/2 and then at
$14.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

May soybean meal closed up $3.70 at $390.20 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today. Meal bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 3.5-
month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at $400.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at last
week’s low of $372.40. First resistance comes in at today’s
high of $392.70 and then at this week’s high of $395.30.
First support is seen at $387.50 and then at today’s low of
$385.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

May bean oil closed up 17 points at 56.07 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. The key “outside
markets” were bearish for the bean oil market today, as the
U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil prices were
sharply lower. Yet, bean oil did manage some gains today,
which is a bullish clue. Bean oil bulls have the solid
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 57.50
cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of 53.59 cents.
First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 56.59 cents
and then at 57.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s
low of 55.70 cents and then at 55.50 cents. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.5

May Chicago SRW wheat closed down 18 cents at $6.40 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. The key
“outside markets” were bearish for wheat today, as the U.S.
dollar index was higher and crude oil prices were sharply
lower. Wheat bears have the near-term technical advantage
and gained fresh downside momentum today. But my bias is
still that the market put in a near-term low last week.
Bulls’ next upside breakout objective is to push and close
Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance at the
March high of $6.77 3/4 a bushel. The next downside price
breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at last
week’s low of $6.11 1/4. First resistance is seen at $6.50
and then at today’s high of $6.58 3/4. First support lies
at today’s low of $6.35 1/2 and then at $6.30. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0.

May K.C. HRW wheat closed down 20 1/2 cents at $6.69 1/2
today. Prices closed near the session low today. The bears
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and
gained more downside momentum today, but my bias is still
that HRW wheat has put in a market low or is close to doing
so. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$7.00. The bears' next downside breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
last week’s low of $6.53. First resistance is seen at $6.75
and then at today’s high of $6.82 1/2. First support is
seen at $6.66 and then at $6.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
3.0

May oats closed down 1 cent at $3.35 today. Prices closed
near mid-range again today. Bulls have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $3.22. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $3.50.
First support lies at this week’s low of $3.32 and then at
$3.30. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.38
and then at $3.41. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

*. SOFTS: May sugar closed up 17 points at 24.42 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range and scored a mildly
bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart today. The
key “outside markets” were bearish for sugar again today,
as the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil prices
were sharply lower. Yet, sugar did score gains today, which
was encouraging to the bulls. Bulls and bears are on a
level near-term technical playing field. Sugar bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at 25.66 cents. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at 24.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at 24.61 cents and then at this week’s
high of 24.78 cents. First support is seen at 24.25 cents
and then at last week’s low of 24.11 cents. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0.

May coffee closed down 205 points at 183.30 cents. Prices
closed near mid-range and did score a bearish “outside day”
down on the daily bar chart. The key “outside markets” were
bearish for the coffee market again today, as the U.S.
dollar index was higher and crude oil prices were sharply
lower. Coffee prices are still in a seven-month-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The bears still have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. The coffee
bulls' next upside breakout objective is to close prices
above solid technical resistance at 195.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the March low of
174.45 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at 185.00
cents and then at 188.45 cents. First support is seen at
181.00 cents and then at today’s low of 178.70 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

May cocoa closed down $58 at $2,085 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session low and hit another fresh 11-week low
today. The key “outside markets” were bearish for cocoa
again today, as the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude
oil prices were sharply lower. Cocoa bears have the solid
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at $2,200. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at the
January low of $2,030. First resistance is seen at $2,100
and then at today’s high of $2,139. First support is seen
at today’s low of $2,060 and then at $2,030. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.0

May cotton closed down 322 points at 89.42 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh two-
week low today. Fresh chart damage was inflicted today. The
key “outside markets” were bearish for cotton again today,
as the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil prices
were sharply lower. Cotton bears have regained the near-
term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at 93.00 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at the March
low of 87.01 cents. First resistance is seen at 90.00 cents
and then at 91.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s
low of 88.92 cents and then at 88.00 cents. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.0

May orange juice closed down 180 points at $1.6070 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and closed at a
fresh three-month low close. Serious near-term chart damage
has been inflicted in FCOJ recently. Bears have the near-
term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices
above technical resistance at $1.7500. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at the
December low of $1.6000. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $1.6325 and then at this week’s high of
$1.6460. First support is seen at this week’s low of $1.600
and then at $1.5900. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

May lumber futures closed up $0.30 at $259.10 today. The
bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. The next downside technical breakout objective for
the lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at the January low of $250.00. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$267.50. First resistance is seen at $260.00 and then at
today’s high of $263.10. First support is seen at $257.50
and then at $256.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

*. METALS: June gold futures closed down $56.00 an ounce at
$1,615.90 today. Prices closed near the session low and hit
a fresh 11-week low on strong follow-through selling from
Tuesday’s losses that occurred in the wake of bearishly
construed FOMC minutes that hinted lesser odds of any QE3
monetary stimulus package. The key “outside markets” were
also bearish for gold today as the U.S. dollar index was
higher and crude oil prices were sharply lower. Fresh
technical damage was inflicted today, the bears have the
near-term technical advantage and a five-week-old downtrend
was re-established on the daily bar chart today. The gold
bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at this week’s high
of $1,685.40. Bears' next near-term downside price
objective is closing prices below psychological support at
$1,600.00. First resistance is seen at $1,629.80 and then
at today’s high of $1,649.50. First support is seen at
today’s low of $1,613.00 and then at $1,600.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.5.

May silver futures closed down $2.165 an ounce at $31.10
today. Prices closed near the session low today and did hit
a fresh 11-week low. The key “outside markets” were bearish
for silver today. The U.S. dollar index was higher and
crude oil prices were sharply lower. Silver bears still
have the near-term technical advantage and gained more
downside momentum today by re-establishing a five-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at this week’s high of $33.295 an ounce. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below psychological support at $30.00. First
resistance is seen at $31.50 and then at $32.00. Next
support is seen at today’s low of $30.98 and then at
$30.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

May N.Y. copper closed down 1,280 points 379.05 cents
today. Prices closed near the session low. The key “outside
markets” were bearish for copper today. The U.S. dollar
index was higher and crude oil prices were sharply lower.
Copper bulls still have the slight overall near-term
technical advantage but did fade today. Copper bulls' next
upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at 400.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of
376.20 cents. First resistance is seen at 382.50 cents and
then at 385.00 cents. First support is seen at 376.20 cents
and then at 375.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

*. ENERGIES: May crude oil closed down $2.26 a barrel at
$101.74 today. Prices closed nearer the session low again
today and hit a fresh six-week low. A stronger U.S. dollar
index and a big build in U.S. crude oil stocks reported
today sunk the crude oil market. A five-week-old downtrend
line is in place on the daily bar chart. Bears now have the
slight near-term technical advantage in crude. The next
near-term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil
bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance
at $106.00 a barrel. The next near-term downside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a
close below major psychological support at $100.00. First
resistance is seen at $102.50 and then at $103.00. First
support is seen at today’s low of $101.08 and then at
100.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

May heating oil closed down 607 points at $3.1670 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low again today. Bulls
still have the slight overall near-term technical
advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
March high of $3.3127. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is producing a close below solid technical
support at $3.1000. First resistance lies at $3.2000 and
then at today’s high of $3.2374. First support is seen at
this week’s low of $3.1490 and then at $3.1250. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5.

May (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 636 points at
$3.3315 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
on profit taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $3.5000. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at
$3.2500. First resistance is seen at $3.3500 and then at
$3.3800. First support is seen at today’s low of $3.3049
and then at this week’s low of $3.2776. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.0.

May natural gas closed down 4.9 cents at $2.137 today.
Prices closed near the session low today. Prices Monday hit
a contract low. The bears still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. There are no early clues to
suggest a market low is close at hand. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at $2.40. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below major psychological support at $2.00. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of $2.204 and then
at $2.25. First support is seen at the contract low of
$2.069 and then at $2.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency
closed down 79 points at 1.3142 today. Prices closed nearer
the session low again today and hit a fresh three-week low.
Bulls have faded badly this week. Bulls and bears are on a
level near-term technical playing field. Euro bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the March high
of 1.3391. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid chart support at
the March low of 1.3009. First resistance for the Euro lies
at 1.3200 and then at today’s high of 1.3245. Next support
is seen at today’s low of 1.3112 and then at 1.3100.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

The June Japanese yen closed up 66 points at 1.2124 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and saw short covering
in a bear market. Bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the
March high of 1.2421. Bears' next downside breakout
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at the March low of 1.1889. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1.2189 and then at this week’s high of
1.2272. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.2064 and
then at this week’s low of 1.2011. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
2.5.

The June Swiss franc closed down 58 points at 1.0926 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low again today. Bulls are
fading and the bears have the slight near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at this
week’s high of 1.1119. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the March low of 1.0725. First
resistance is seen at 1.1000 and then at 1.1050. First
support is seen at today’s low of 1.0898 and then at
1.0850. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

The June Australian dollar closed down 44 points at 1.0174
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit
another fresh 2.5-month low. Bears have the slight near-
term technical advantage. Prices have been trending lower
for five weeks. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is closing prices above solid chart resistance at last
week’s high of 1.0461. The next downside breakout objective
for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at 1.0000. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of 1.0251 and then at 1.0300. Next support is seen at
today’s low of 1.0163 and then at 1.0100. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.0

The June Canadian dollar closed down 42 points at 1.0021
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is producing a
close above chart resistance at the February high of
1.0133. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
the March low of .9946. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 1.0077 and then at this week’s high of 1.0097.
First support is seen at today’s low of 1.0011 and then at
1.0000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

The June British pound closed down 6 points at 1.5882
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
mild profit taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.6056. Bears'
next downside technical breakout objective is closing
prices below solid support at last week’s low of 1.5832.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.5909 and then
at 1.5971. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.5826
and then at 1.5761. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

The June U.S. dollar index closed up 28 points at 79.92
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh two-week high. Bulls have regained some upside
near-term technical momentum. Bulls and bears are on a
level near-term technical playing field. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to close prices above solid
technical resistance at the March high of 80.19. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at the
February low of 78.42. Next resistance lies at today’s high
of 80.09 and then at 80.19. First support is seen at
today’s low of 79.54 and then at 79.25. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0.

June U.S. T-Bonds closed up 18/32 at 137 12/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw some
short covering. Bears have the slight near-term technical
advantage. The next downside price breakout objective for
the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at the March low of 135 5/32. The next upside
technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of 139
5/32. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 137 21/32
and then at 138 even. First support is seen at 137 even and
then at today’s low of 136 12/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
4.5.

June U.S. T Notes closed up 16.5 (32nds) at 129.14.0 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high on short covering.
Bears have the slight near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid resistance at this week’s high
of 130.02.0. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is producing a close below solid technical
support at the March low of 127.23.0. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 129.17.0 and then at 129.24.0.
First support is seen at 129.00.0 and then at today’s low
of 128.24.5. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
lower again today on more profit taking and on lingering
bearish interpretations from Tuesday’s release of the FOMC
minutes of the last meeting. The stock index bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 39.75 at
2,739.25. Prices closed nearer the session low today.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at 2,800.00. The bears' next
downside price breakout objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at 2,700.00. First resistance is
seen at 2,750.00 and then at today’s high of 2,781.00.
First support is seen at today’s low of 2,724.75 and then
at 2,700.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 15.40 at 1,393.40.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at 1,425.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid support at 1,350.00. First resistance is seen at
1,400.00 and then at today’s high of 1,408.60. First
support is seen at last week’s low of 1,386.50 and then at
1,381.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

The Dow futures closed down 126 points at 13,006 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. The next upside price
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 13,500. The next downside price
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the March low of 12,698. First
resistance in the Dow lies at today’s high of 13,034 and
then at 13,100. First support is seen at today’s low of
12,960 and then at 12,900. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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