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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

JIm's Afternoon Markets Report--August 13

Aug 14, 2012

Monday Evening, August 13-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

(NOTE: I am out of the office today and much of the day Tuesday, attending my
nephew’s funeral. My friend and fellow trader/analyst Ken Seehusen produced my
daily report today. Ken's style is a bit different than mine, but I think you'll benefit and
enjoy his work, too. I will try to put out my report Tuesday afternoon, as Ken will be
at the Iowa State Fair. There is a chance I won’t be able to produce my Tuesday
afternoon report.--Jim)

The STOCK INDEXES

The September NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Monday as it extended the rally
off June’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher
opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI
are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off
June’s low, May’s high crossing at 2742.50 is the next upside target. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2640.47 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at
2725.75. Second resistance is May’s high crossing at 2742.50. First support
is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2681.55. Second support is the
20-day moving average crossing at 2640.47.

The September S&P 500 index closed lower due to light profit taking on
Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off June’s low. The mid-range
close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the
RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideway to
higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off
June’s low, March’s high crossing at 1408.90 is the next upside target.
Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1373.27 would confirm
that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high
crossing at 1404.00. Second resistance is March’s high crossing at 1408.90.
First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1388.36. Second
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1373.27.

The Dow closed lower due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidated some
of the rally off June’s low. Today’s mid-range close sets the stage for a
steady opening on Tuesday. If the Dow extends the rally off June’s low, May’
s high crossing at 13,338 it the next upside objective. Closes below the
20-day moving average crossing at 12,974 would confirm that a short-term top
has been posted. First resistance is last Tuesday’s high crossing at 13,216.
Second resistance is May’s high crossing at 13,338. First support is the
10-day moving average crossing at 13,095. Second support is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 12,974.

INTEREST RATES

September T-bonds closed down 3/32’s at 148-25.

September T-bonds closed slightly lower on Monday as it consolidates some of
the decline off July’s high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady
opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning
neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near.
Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 150-18 would confirm that
a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off July’
s high, the 38% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 146-02
is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 149-17. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing
at 150-18. First support is last Thursday’s low crossing at 147-10. Second
support is the 38% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at
146-02.

ENERGY MARKETS

September crude oil closed slightly lower on Monday as it consolidates below
the 50% retracement level of this year’s decline crossing at 94.28. The
low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s
night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain
neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. If September renews the rally off June’s low, the 62% retracement
level of this year’s decline crossing at 98.20 is the next upside target.
Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.66 would confirm that
a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree
decline near-term. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of this
year’s decline crossing at 94.28. Second resistance is the 62% retracement
level of this year’s decline crossing at 98.20. First support is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 90.66. Second support is the reaction low
crossing at 86.92.

September heating oil closed lower due to profit taking on Monday as it
consolidates some of the rally off June’s low. The low-range close sets the
stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
September extends the rally off June’s low, the 75% retracement level of the
March-June decline crossing at 312.86 is the next upside target. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 291.20 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday’s high
crossing at 306.06. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the
March-June decline crossing at 312.86. First support is the 10-day moving
average crossing at 295.15. Second support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 291.20.

September unleaded gas closed lower due to profit taking on Monday as it
consolidated some of the rally off June’s low. The low-range close sets the
stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
September extends the rally off June’s low, the 87% retracement level of the
March-June decline crossing at 310.18 is the next upside target. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 285.29 are needed to confirm
that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high
crossing at 304.35. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the
March-June decline crossing at 310.18. First support is the 10-day moving
average crossing at 293.04. Second support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 285.29.

September Henry natural gas closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline
off July’s high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the
decline off July’s high, the 62% retracement level of the April-July rally
crossing at 2.626 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day
moving average crossing near 2.994 would temper the near-term bearish
outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.994.
Second resistance is the broken June-July uptrend line crossing near 3.098.
First support is today’s low crossing at 2.715. Second support is the 62%
retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 2.626.

CURRENCIES

The September Dollar closed lower on Monday and the mid-range close sets the
stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are
oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in
or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.98 would
confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the
decline off July’s high, the 50% retracement level of the April-July rally
crossing at 81.64 is the next downside target. First resistance is the
20-day moving average crossing at 82.98. Second resistance is the reaction
high crossing at 83.61. First support is last Tuesday’s low crossing at
82.06. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the April-July rally
crossing at 81.64.

The September Euro closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the
decline off last week’s high. The high-range close sets the stage for a
steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.
Closes below the reaction low crossing at 121.40 would confirm an end to the
short covering rally off July’s low. If September renews the rally off July’
s low, the reaction high crossing at 127.03 is the next upside target. First
resistance is last Monday’s high crossing at 124.50. Second resistance is
the reaction high crossing at 127.03. First support is the reaction low
crossing at 121.40. Second support is July’s low crossing at 120.51.

The September British Pound closed higher on Monday as it extends this
summer’s trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to
higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and
the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible
near-term. Closes above June’s high crossing at 1.5773 would confirm an
upside breakout of this summer’s trading range while opening the door for a
possible test of the 62% retracement level of the April-June decline
crossing at 1.5891. If September renews the decline off July’s high, the
reaction low crossing at 1.5456 is the next downside target. First
resistance is June’s high crossing at 1.5773. Second resistance is the 62%
retracement level of the April-June decline crossing at 1.5891. First
support is the reaction low crossing at 1.5488. Second support is July’s low
crossing at 1.5390.

The September Swiss Franc closed higher due to short covering on Monday and
the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when
Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.
Closes below the reaction low crossing at .10112 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off July’s
low, the reaction high crossing at .10588 is the next upside target. First
resistance is last Monday’s high crossing at .10366. Second resistance is
the reaction high crossing at crossing at .10588. First support is the
reaction low crossing at .10366. Second support is July’s low crossing at
.10040.

The September Canadian Dollar closed lower due to light profit taking on
Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off June’s low. The mid-range
close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday’s night session
begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to
bullish signaling that additional short-term gains are possible. If
September extends the rally off June’s low, the 87% retracement level of the
April-June decline crossing at 100.91 is the next upside target. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 99.43 are needed to confirm that
a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing
at 100.88. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of this spring’s
decline crossing at 100.91. First support is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 100.09. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at
99.43.

The September Japanese Yen closed lower on Monday while extending the
trading range of the past four weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for
a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the
rally off June’s low, June’s high crossing at .12895 is the next upside
target. Closes below the June-July uptrend line crossing near .12699 would
confirm that the short-term trend has turned down. First resistance is the
reaction high crossing at .12839. Second resistance is June’s high crossing
at .12895. First support is the June-July uptrend line crossing near .12699.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at .12514.

PRECIOUS METALS

October gold closed lower due to profit taking on Monday and the low-range
close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night
session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes
above the reaction high crossing at 1644.00 are needed to confirm an upside
breakout of this summer’s trading range. If October renews the decline off
July’s high, the reaction low crossing at 1564.50 is the next downside
target. First resistance is July’s high crossing at 1626.90. Second
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1644.00. First support is the
reaction low crossing at 1564.50. Second support is the reaction low
crossing at 1557.00.

September silver closed lower due to profit taking on Monday while extending
this summer’s trading range. The low-range close set the stage for a steady
to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics
and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the
rally off June’s low, June’s high crossing at 29.915 is the next upside
target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.571 would
temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 29.135. Second resistance is June’s high crossing at 29.915.
First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.571. Second
support is the reaction low crossing at 26.880.

September copper closed lower on Monday and the low-range close sets the
stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction
high crossing at 345.70 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been
posted. If September renews the decline off July’s high, June’s low crossing
at 325.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 345.70. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at 355.65.
First support is the reaction low crossing at 326.50. Second support is June
’s low crossing at 325.00.

GRAINS

December Corn closed down 16 3/4-cents at 7.92 1/2.

December corn closed lower due to profit taking on Monday following last
Friday’s key reversal down. Today’s decline led to a close below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 7.96 thereby opening the door for additional
weakness near-term. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower
opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI
are diverging and turning bearish signaling that additional weakness is
possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 7.45 1/2 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Last Friday’s supply-demand
report saw the USDA make a significant cut in its production estimate of the
2012 corn crop. December corn is vulnerable to some profit taking and or
consolidation until more news on either rationing or production is known.
This afternoon's Crop Progress could show some stabilization after a shift
to cooler weather last week. If December extends this summer’s rally, the
July 5th measuring gap projects a rally to the 8.54 1/2 area. First
resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 8.49. Second resistance is the
July 5th measuring gap projection of 8.54 1/2. First support is today’s low
crossing at 7.86. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 7.45 1/2.

December wheat closed down 25 1/2-cents at 8.75 3/4.

December wheat closed lower due to profit taking on Monday following last
Friday’s key reversal down. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady
to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics
and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices
are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off June’s low, the
May-2011 high crossing at 9.77 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below
the reaction low crossing at 8.64 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top
has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness during
August. First resistance is July’s high crossing at 9.53 1/4. Second
resistance is the May-2011 high crossing at 9.77 1/2. First support is the
reaction low crossing at 8.64 1/4. Second support is the reaction low
crossing at 8.16 1/4.

December Kansas City Wheat closed down 16 1/4-cents at 9.01.

December Kansas City wheat gapped down and closed lower due to profit taking
on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening
on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews this
summer’s rally, the May-2011 high crossing at 9.78 1/2 is the next upside
target. If December extends today’s decline, the reaction low crossing at
8.75 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high
crossing at 9.54. Second resistance is the May-2011 high crossing at 9.78
1/2. First support is the reaction crossing at 8.75 3/4. Second support is
the reaction low crossing at 8.31.

December Minneapolis wheat closed down 21 3/4-cents at 9.24.

December Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Monday following last Friday’s
key reversal down and tested the 38% retracement level of this summer’s
rally crossing at 9.19 1/2. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady
to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins to trade. Stochastics
and the RSI are oversold but are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways
to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off
July’s high, the 50% retracement level of this summer’s rally crossing at
8.84 is the next downside target. Closes above last Friday’s high crossing
at 9.84 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
First resistance is last Friday’s high crossing at 9.84 1/2. Second
resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.94 1/4. First support is the
38% retracement level of this summer’s rally crossing at 9.19 1/2. Second
support is the 50% retracement level of this summer’s rally crossing at
8.84.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX

November soybeans closed down 43-cents at 16.00 3/4.

November soybeans closed sharply lower due to profit taking on Monday as it
consolidated some of last week’s rally. The low-range close sets the stage
for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices
are possible near-term. If November extends last week’s rally, psychological
resistance crossing at 17.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the
reaction low crossing at 15.36 would confirm that a short-term top has been
posted. First resistance is July’s high crossing at 16.91 1/2. Second
resistance is psychological resistance crossing at 17.00. First support is
the reaction low crossing at 15.36. Second support is the reaction low
crossing at 15.05 1/4.

December soybean meal closed down $16.50 at $478.40.

December soybean meal closed lower due to profit taking on Monday and the
low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s
night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December
extends last week’s rally, July’s high crossing at 509.80 is the next upside
targets. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 467.30 would confirm that
a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday’s high
crossing at 507.50. Second resistance is July’s high crossing at 509.80.
First support is the reaction low crossing at 467.30. Second support is the
reaction low crossing at 454.30.

December soybean oil closed down 66-pts. at 53.75.

December soybean closed lower due to profit taking on Monday but remains
above the 20-day moving average crossing at 53.40. The low-range close sets
the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends last week’s rally,
the reaction high crossing at 55.69 is the next upside target. If December
renews the decline off July’s high, the reaction low crossing at 51.36 is
the next downside target. First resistance is today’s high crossing at
54.50. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 55.69. First
support is last Monday’s low crossing at 51.84. Second support is the
reaction low crossing at 51.36.

LIVESTOCK

October hogs closed up $1.52 at $77.05.

October hogs closed higher on Monday and the high-range close sets the stage
for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish
hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving
average crossing at 78.38 would confirm that a short-term low has been
posted. If October renews this month’s decline, weekly support crossing at
74.85 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 78.38. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing
at 82.90. First support is last Wednesday’s low crossing at 74.90. Second
support is weekly support crossing at 74.85.

October cattle closed up $0.85 at 126.37.

October cattle closed higher on Monday and the mid-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins
trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off this
month’s low, May’s high crossing at 127.05 is the next upside target. Closes
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.20 would confirm that a
short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today’s high crossing at
126.70. Second resistance is May’s high crossing at 127.05. First support is
the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.20. Second support is the reaction
low crossing at 122.15.

October feeder cattle closed up $2.60 at $143.47.

October Feeder cattle gapped up and closed higher on Monday marking an
upside breakout of the trading range of the past three weeks. The high-range
close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night
session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that
sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today’s close above the
reaction high crossing at 143.25 is needed to confirm that a short-term low
has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If
October renews this summer’s decline, weekly support crossing at 132.66 is
the next downside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of
the June-July decline crossing at 144.63. Second resistance is the 38%
retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 147.97. First support
is July’s low crossing at 138.30. Second support is weekly support crossing
at 132.66.

FOOD & FIBER

September coffee close lower on Monday as it extends the decline off July’s
high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on
Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish
signaling that additional weakness is possible. If September extends the
decline off July’s high, the reaction low crossing at 16.08 is the next
downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.56
would temper the near-term bearish outlook. Closes above the 20-day moving
average crossing at 17.56 would confirm that a short-term low has been
posted.

September cocoa posted a key reversal down on Monday and below the 10-day
moving average crossing at 24.14 signaling that a short-term top is in or is
near. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on
Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to
bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below
the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.33 would confirm that a short-term
top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June’s low, January’
s high crossing at 25.33 is the next upside target.

October sugar closed lower on Monday and tested the 75% retracement level of
the June-July rally crossing at 20.42 as it extends the decline off July’s
high. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on
Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to
lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off July
’s high, the 87% retracement level of the June-July rally crossing at 19.82
is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing
at 22.35 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

October cotton closed lower on Monday and below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 71.87 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The
low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday.
Stochastics and the RSI have turning bearish signaling that sideways to
lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off last
week’s high, the reaction low crossing at 68.95 is the next downside target.
If October renews the rally off June’s low, the 38% retracement level of
this year’s decline crossing at 77.92 is the next upside target.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and for an explanation of my Market Rating
System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than
my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However,
it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of
any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading
(and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A
VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or
options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and
know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You
should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into
those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by
thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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