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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--Dec. 31

Jan 02, 2013

Monday Evening, December 31-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: February live cattle closed down $1.27 at
$132.30 today. Prices closed nearer the session low, hit a
fresh two-week low and scored a bearish “outside day” down
on the daily bar chart. Profit taking was seen today and no
serious chart damage occurred. However, the bulls do need
to now step up and show some fresh power soon. Cattle bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at the
December high of $134.40. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $131.00. First
resistance is seen at $133.00 and then at $133.50. First
support is seen at today’s low of $132.20 and then at
$131.77. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

March feeder cattle closed down $0.45 at $154.27 today.
Prices closed near the session low today and saw more
profit taking. The feeder bulls still have the overall
near-term chart advantage. A bullish pennant or flag
pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. The next upside
price breakout objective for the feeder bulls is to push
and close prices above solid technical resistance at the
December high of $157.07. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is to push and close prices below
solid technical support at $152.50. First resistance is
seen at $155.00 and then at today’s high of $155.67. First
support is seen at last week’s low of $153.72 and then at
153.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

February lean hogs closed down $0.65 at $87.72 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and did close
well up from the daily low. A bearish USDA hogs and pigs
report on Friday pressured the hogs today. No serious chart
damage has occurred but the bulls need to step up and show
fresh power soon. Follow-through selling pressure on
Wednesday would suggest a bearish head-and-shoulders top
reversal pattern is developing on the daily bar chart. A
three-month-old uptrend is still in place on the daily
chart. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
hog bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart
resistance at the November contract high of $88.25. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing prices below solid technical support at the
December low of $83.20. First resistance is seen at $86.00
and then at $86.30. First support is seen at today’s low of
$84.90 and then at $84.45. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

*. GRAINS: March corn futures closed up 4 1/4 cents at 6.98
1/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session high. Short
covering in a bear market was featured today. There has
been a lack of fresh, bullish fundamental news in the corn
market to fuel the bears recently. However, it’s my bias
that some fresh, speculative money will start to move into
the grain futures markets on the long side as the new year
gets under way. Corn bears have the near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. Corn bulls' next upside price objective is
to push and close prices above solid technical resistance
at $7.25. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $6.75. First resistance for March corn
is seen at today’s high of $7.00 and then at $7.07 1/4.
First support is seen at the December low of $6.87 1/2 and
then at $6.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

March soybeans closed down 8 1/2 cents at $14.09 1/2 a
bushel today. Prices closed nearer the session low. Soybean
bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.
However, my bias is that some fresh speculative money will
flow into the grains on the long side as the new year gets
under way. The next near-term upside technical breakout
objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing
January prices above solid technical resistance at $14.75 a
bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
and psychological support at $14.00. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $14.25 1/2 and then at last week’s
high of $14.43. First support is seen at $14.00 and then at
the December low of $13.97 3/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
3.5.

March soybean meal closed down $5.40 at $419.40 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh five-
week low today. Bears have the near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at last week’s high of $435.80. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at the
November low of $405.50. First resistance comes in at
$423.20 and then at today’s high of $426.70. First support
is seen at today’s low of $418.50 and then at $415.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

March bean oil closed up 26 points at 49.70 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high and saw short
covering in a bear market. The bean oil bears have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at
51.00 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the December low of 47.92 cents.
First resistance is seen at 50.00 cents and then at 50.50
cents. First support is seen at 49.50 cents and then at
49.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

March Chicago SRW wheat closed down 3/4 cent at $7.78
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Wheat
bears have the near-term technical advantage. A seven-week-
old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Wheat
bulls’ next upside breakout objective is to push and close
Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance at
$8.22 3/4 a bushel. The next downside price breakout
objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $7.50.
First resistance is seen at $7.85 and then at $8.00. First
support lies at last week’s low of $7.64 1/2 and then at
$7.54 1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

March K.C. HRW wheat closed up 5 cents at $8.31 today.
Prices closed near the session high today. Short covering
in a bear market was featured. HRW bears have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $8.50. The bears' next
downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below psychological support at $8.00. First resistance is
seen at $8.40 and then at $8.45. First support is seen at
$8.25 and then at last week’s low of $8.15 3/4. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0

March oats closed down 1 1/2 cents at $3.47 1/2 today.
Prices closed near mid-range and hit another fresh six-
month low today. Oats bears have the near-term technical
advantage. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$3.30. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at $3.65. First support lies at today’s low of $3.43 1/4
and then at $3.40. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of $3.50 3/4 and then at $3.55. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
3.5

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed up 13 points at 19.55 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh three-week high on short covering and bargain
hunting. Sugar bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. However, the bulls have some upside
momentum on their side. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at the November high of 20.03 cents. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at 18.81 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 19.58 cents and then
at the December high of 19.94 cents. First support is seen
at today’s low of 19.29 cents and then at 19.15 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

March coffee closed down 285 points at 144.00 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range and did set a fresh contract
low today. The coffee bears have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside breakout
objective for the bulls is to close prices above solid
technical resistance at 150.00 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 135.00 cents a pound.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 146.25 cents
and then at last week’s high of 149.25 cents. First support
is seen at today’s contract low of 141.24 cents and then at
140.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

March cocoa closed down $17 at $2,232 a ton. Prices closed
near mid-range and hit another fresh five-month low today.
The cocoa bears have the solid near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective
for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at $2,325. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $2,115. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,259 and then at
$2,275. First support is seen at today’s low of $2,207 and
then at $2,200. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

March cotton closed up 48 points at 75.14 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. The cotton bulls have
the slight overall near-term technical advantage. A seven-
week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at the
August high of 78.02 cents. The next downside price
breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push and
close prices below solid technical support at 74.00 cents.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 75.81 cents and
then at 76.29 cents. First support is seen at last week’s
low of 74.62 cents and then at 74.00 cents. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5.

March orange juice closed down 915 points at $1.1735 today.
Prices closed near the session low and hit a fresh five-
week low today. FCOJ bulls have faded badly recently as a
bearish V-Top reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar
chart. No threatening cold weather for the southeastern
U.S. has sucked speculative money out of the FCOJ market.
The next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls
is pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at
$1.2500. The next downside technical breakout objective for
the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at the October low of $1.0675. First resistance is
seen at $1.2000 and then at today’s high of $1.2375. First
support is seen at today’s low of $1.1700 and then at
$1.1500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

March lumber futures closed down $9.70 at $375.10 today.
More heavy profit taking was seen today after prices last
week hit a contract and six-year high. The lumber bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
next downside technical breakout objective for the lumber
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $365.00. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at last week’s contract high of
$397.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$376.50 and then at $380.00. First support is seen at
$372.50 and then at $370.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

*. METALS: February gold futures closed up $21.50 an ounce
at $1,677.20 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
and hit a fresh two-week high today on short covering and
bargain hunting and even a bit of safe-haven buying
interest early on. A partial agreement between U.S.
lawmakers on the U.S. fiscal cliff was also supportive to
gold and other raw commodity markets in afternoon trading.
Prices climbed back above the key 200-day moving average
Monday, which was a bullish clue. However, the gold bears
still have the overall near-term technical advantage. A
2.5-month-old downtrend is still in place on the daily bar
chart. The gold bulls’ next upside price breakout objective
is to produce a close above psychological resistance at
$1,700.00. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at the December low of $1,636.00. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of $1,681.00 and then at 1,690.00. First
support is seen at 1,665.00 and then at today’s low of
$1,655.90. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 4.0

March silver futures closed up $0.325 an ounce at $30.30
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Short
covering and some bargain hunting were featured. The silver
bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $31.50
an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid technical support
at $29.00. First resistance is seen at $30.53 and then at
$30.79. Next support is seen at $30.00 and then at last
week’s low of $29.635. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

March N.Y. copper closed up 545 points at 364.45 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high and scored a
bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart today.
Copper bulls have regained the slight near-term technical
advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at the December high of 372.10 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the December low of 352.30
cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 365.50
cents and then at 367.50 cents. First support is seen at
362.25 cents and then at 360.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.5.

*. ENERGIES: February crude oil closed up $0.89 a barrel at
$91.69 today. Prices closed nearer the session high, hit a
fresh nine-week high and scored a bullish “outside day” up
on the daily bar chart today. The bulls have upside near-
term technical momentum and they have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next near-term upside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a
close above solid technical resistance at $95.00 a barrel.
The next near-term downside price breakout objective for
the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at $88.00. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $91.99 and then at $92.50. First support is
seen at $91.00 and then at today’s low of $90.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0

February heating oil closed up 127 points at $3.0340 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls have the
slight near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the December high of $3.1026.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is producing
a close below solid technical support at $2.9600. First
resistance lies at $3.0619 and then at $3.0800. First
support is seen at $3.0000 and then at last week’s low of
$2.9846. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

February (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 65 points at
$2.7650 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
Bulls have the near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the September
high of $2.8660. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is closing prices below solid support at $2.6500.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2.7820 and
then at last week’s high of $2.8123. First support is seen
at $2.7500 and then at today’s low of $2.7211. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.5.

February natural gas closed down 10.0 cents at $3.368
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Trading
has turned choppy. Nat gas bears have the overall near-term
technical advantage. A five-week-old downtrend is in place
on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $3.55. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at the August low of $3.222. First
resistance is seen at $3.45 and then at $3.50. First
support is seen at today’s low of $3.341 and then at the
December low of $3.316. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The March Euro currency
closed down 34 points at 1.3198 today. Prices closed nearer
the session low today. The bulls still have the near-term
technical advantage. A seven-week-old uptrend is in place
on the daily bar chart. Euro bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the December high of 1.3321.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid chart support at 1.3050. First
resistance for the Euro lies at today’s high of 1.3245 and
then at last week’s high of 1.3295. Next support is seen at
last week’s low of 1.3175 and then at 1.3142. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0

The March Japanese yen closed down 91 points at 1.1534
today. Prices closed near the session low today and hit
another fresh contract low. Bears have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep 10-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. There are no
early clues of a market bottom being close at hand. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid resistance at 1.1800. Bears' next downside
breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical
support at 1.1400. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of 1.1660 and then at 1.1707. First support is seen at
today’s contract low of 1.1527 and then at 1.1500.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

The March Swiss franc closed down 29 points at 1.0936
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The
Swissy bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at the
December high of 1.1026. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at 1.0800. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1.0979 and then at 1.1000. First support is
seen at today’s low of 1.0925 and then at last week’s low
of 1.0905. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

The March Australian dollar closed up 25 points at 1.0335
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. No
serious chart damage has been inflicted recently but the
bulls have faded and need to show more power soon. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid chart resistance at 1.0425. The next
downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at the November low of
1.0203. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0350
and then at 1.0400. Next support is seen at today’s low of
1.0307 and then at last week’s low of 1.0281. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0

The March Canadian dollar closed up 36 points at 1.0056
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls and bears
are on a level near-term technical playing field. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is producing a close
above chart resistance at the December high of 1.0158. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at 1.0000.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0083 and then
at 1.0100. First support is seen at last week’s low of
1.0011 and then at 1.0000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The March British pound closed up 91 points at 1.6239
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage and regained
some upside momentum today. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the contract high of 1.6304. Bears'
next downside technical breakout objective is closing
prices below solid support at last week’s low of 1.6065.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.6271 and then
at the contract high of 1.6304. First support is seen at
today’s low or 1.6131 and then at 1.6065. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.5.

The March U.S. dollar index closed up 12 points at 79.90
today. Prices closed nearer the session high on short
covering in a bear market. The bears still have the near-
term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at 80.50. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at the September low of 78.94. Next
resistance lies at last week’s high of 80.05 and then at
80.25. First support is seen at today’s low of 79.69 and
then at last week’s low of 79.42. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
2.5.

March U.S. T-Bonds closed down 1 11/32 at 147 1/32 today.
Prices closed near the session low. Risk appetite was on
the upswing later today, on the positive fiscal cliff news,
and that sucked safe-haven money out of the bond and notes
markets. T-Bond bears have the slight near-term technical
advantage. The next downside price breakout objective for
the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at the December low of 145 19/32. The next upside
technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at 149 even. First
resistance is seen at 147 24/32 and then at 148 even. First
support is seen at today’s low of 146 23/32 and then at 146
16/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

March U.S. T Notes closed down 15.5 (32nds) at 132.15.0
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls
and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid resistance at 133.08.0. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at the
December low of 131.25.5. First resistance is seen at
133.24.0 and then at 133.00.0. First support is seen at
today’s low of 132.10.0 and then at 132.08.0. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
higher today on news the Obama administration and U.S.
lawmakers have apparently made good progress and are near a
deal on the U.S. “fiscal cliff” matter that has been
dominating the business news headlines for several weeks.
Short covering and bargain hunting were featured. Markets
were quieter overnight and for most of the day, on this
last trading day of the year, and ahead of the New Year’s
Day holiday on Tuesday. Then in early afternoon trading
newswires reported that President Obama was going to make a
statement--most likely on the fiscal cliff situation.
Indeed, Obama did say progress had been made and at least a
partial deal was likely to be forged soon. Stocks rallied
sharply along with some other raw commodity markets.
Traders took on a keener “risk-on” mentality in the market
place, in the wake of the Obama statement. U.S. lawmakers
need to reach a deal by January 3 to avoid a series of tax
increases and spending cuts that automatically go into
effect.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 73.25 at 2,659.25
today. Prices closed near the session high after hitting a
fresh six-week low early on. Prices also scored a bullish
“outside day” up on the daily bar chart today. Bulls and
bears are on a level near-term technical playing field.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at the December high of
2,713.75. The bears' next downside price breakout objective
is closing prices below solid technical support at the
November low of 2,492.00. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 2,665.00 and then at 2,675.00. First
support is seen at 2,625.00 and then at 2,600.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 38.40 at 1,422.40.
Prices closed nearer the session high. Bulls and bears are
on a level near-term technical playing field. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at the December high of 1,445.80. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid support at the November low of 1,340.30.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1,425.00 and
then at 1,433.00. First support is seen at 1,400.00 and
then at last week’s low of 1,383.00. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0.

The Dow futures closed up 250 points at 13,027. Prices
closed nearer the session high today. Bulls and bears are
on a level near-term technical playing field. The next
upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at the December high of
13,300. The next downside price objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the
November low of 12,440. First resistance in the Dow lies at
today’s high of 13,070 and then at 13,100. First support is
seen at 13,000 and then at 12,950. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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