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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--June 25

Jun 26, 2012

Monday Evening, June 25-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: August live cattle closed down $1.02 at
$115.87 today. Prices closed near the session low and hit a
fresh seven-week low today. The key “outside markets” were
bearish for cattle today, as the U.S. dollar index was
higher while crude oil prices were lower. The market was
also pressured by last Friday afternoon’s bearish USDA
cattle on feed report. Serious near-term chart damage has
been inflicted recently as the bears have the overall near-
term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at last week’s high of $118.25. The
next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the April low of $114.70. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $116.60 and then at $117.00. First support
is seen at today’s low of $115.77 and then at $115.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

August feeder cattle closed down the $3.00 limit at $149.80
today. Prices hit a fresh 2.5-month low today. The big
gains in corn recently, including limit-up or near limit-up
trading in corn today, have strongly pressured the feeders.
Very serious near-term chart damage has occurred in feeders
recently. Bears have the solid near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
feeder bulls is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at $152.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at the April low of
$149.27. First resistance is seen at $150.00 and then at
$151.00. First support is seen at $149.27 and then at
$149.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

August lean hogs closed down $2.27 at $89.10 today. Prices
closed near the session low today, hit a fresh four-week
low and scored a big and bearish “outside day” down on the
daily bar chart. The key “outside markets” were bearish for
hogs today, as the U.S. dollar index was higher while crude
oil prices were lower. Solid to sharp losses in the cattle
market today weighed on hogs. Hog market bears now have the
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and close
prices above solid chart resistance at today’s high of
$92.45. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at
$87.50. First resistance is seen at $90.00 and then at
$90.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $89.10 and
then at $88.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

*. GRAINS: December corn futures closed up the 40-cent
limit at $5.94 today. Prices hit a fresh six-month high
today as the weather market in the U.S. Corn Belt is
heating up—literally. Extended weather forecasts for the
Corn Belt call for more hot and dry weather as the key
pollination stage of growth nears for the corn plants.
Weather in the Corn Belt the next several weeks will trump
the technicals. Corn market bulls have regained the near-
term technical advantage. Corn bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at the January high of $5.97. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $5.75.
First resistance for July corn is seen at $5.97 and then at
$6.00. First support is seen at $5.90 and then at $5.82.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

November soybeans closed up 44 1/4 cents at $14.19 3/4 a
bushel today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a
fresh contract and four-year high. The recent dry and hot
weather in the Corn Belt, and more in the forecast, is very
bullish for beans. There was also a fresh USDA export sale
announcement of soybeans to China today. Bean bulls have
the strong overall near-term technical advantage. If the
weather remains hot and dry in the Corn Belt, soybeans will
continue to react strongly to the upside. The next near-
term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean
bulls is pushing and closing prices above major
psychological resistance at $15.00 a bushel. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $13.64
1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $14.37 and
then at $15.00. First support is seen at $14.00 and then at
$13.90 1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.0.

December soybean meal closed up $12.30 at $416.50 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh contract
and four-year high. Meal bulls have the strong overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at $425.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at
$400.00. First resistance comes in at $420.00 and then at
today’s contract high of $423.80. First support is seen at
$414.00 and then at today’s low of $410.60. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 9.0

December bean oil closed up 165 points at 52.15 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh six-week high. Bean oil bulls gained fresh upside
technical momentum today and the bulls and bears are back
on a level near-term technical playing field. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at 54.00 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at 50.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 52.47 cents and then
at 52.75 cents. First support is seen at 52.00 cents and
then at 51.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

December Chicago SRW wheat closed up 45 cents at $7.52
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh 7.5-month high. The wheat market is following corn
and soybeans and there are also some weather problems in
eastern Europe and Australia wheat regions. Wheat bulls
have gained solid upside near-term technical momentum.
Bulls have gained the near-term technical advantage. If
corn and soybeans continue to rally on a weather market
bull run, wheat will follow. Wheat bulls’ next upside
breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices
above solid technical resistance at the October 2011 high
of $6.69 a bushel. The next downside price breakout
objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and
closing prices below psychological support at $7.00. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $7.59 1/4 and then at
$7.69. First support lies at $7.45 1/2 and then at $7.36
1/5. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

December K.C. HRW wheat closed up 43 1/4 cents at $7.65 1/2
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh five-month high. Bulls have gained good upside
near-term technical momentum and have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above major
psychological resistance at $8.00. The bears' next downside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $7.25. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of $7.72 and then at the January high of
$7.78 3/4. First support is seen at $7.62 and then at
$7.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

December oats closed up the 20-cent limit at $3.17 today.
Prices hit a fresh four-week high today as oats are
following the major grains on a bull run. Oats bulls have
the overall near-term technical advantage and gained more
power today. Bears' next downside price breakout objective
is pushing and closing prices below major psychological
support at $3.00. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $3.35. First support lies at $3.15
and then at $3.10. First resistance is seen at $3.20 and
then at $3.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

*. SOFTS: October sugar closed up 14 points at 19.89 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today in quieter
trading. Tepid short covering was featured. The key
“outside markets” were bearish for sugar today, as the U.S.
dollar index was higher while crude oil prices were lower.
The bulls have faded and bears have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at last week’s high of 21.14 cents. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at the June low of
19.24 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
20.02 cents and then at 20.29 cents. First support is seen
at last week’s low of 19.65 cents and then at 19.42 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

September coffee closed up 260 points at 158.50 cents.
Prices closed near the session high today on short covering
in a bear market. Trading has turned choppy recently. The
key “outside markets” were bearish for coffee today, as the
U.S. dollar index was higher while crude oil prices were
lower. Yet, coffee scored gains, which does suggest this
market has put in a major low or is very close to it. The
bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
The coffee bulls' next upside breakout objective is to
close prices above solid technical resistance at 165.00
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
145.00 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at last
week’s high of 161.50 cents and then at 162.50 cents. First
support is seen at 157.50 cents and then at 155.00 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

September cocoa closed up $4 at $2,106 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session high today and hit a fresh three-week
low early on. Tepid short covering in a bear market was
featured today. The key “outside markets” were bearish for
cocoa today, as the U.S. dollar index was higher while
crude oil prices were lower. Cocoa bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at the June
high of $2,271. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at the June low of $2,031. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,118 and then at
$2,150. First support is seen at today’s low of $2,085 and
then at $2,071. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

December cotton closed up 93 points at 70.05 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high on short covering in
a bear market. The key “outside markets” were bearish for
cotton today, as the U.S. dollar index was higher while
crude oil prices were lower. The cotton bears still have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce
a close above solid technical resistance at the June high
of 74.80 cents. The next downside price breakout objective
for the cotton bears is to push and close prices below
solid technical support at the June low of 64.61 cents.
First resistance is seen at 71.00 cents and then at 72.00
cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 68.50 cents
and then at last week’s low of 67.38 cents. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0

September orange juice closed down 105 points at $1.1465
today. Prices closed near the session low today. There has
been some speculative buying ahead of ideas a hurricane or
tropical storm could strike southeastern U.S. citrus
groves. FCOJ bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices
above technical resistance at $1.2500. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at the June
low of $1.0765. First resistance is seen at last week’s
high of $1.1850 and then at the June high of $1.2050. First
support is seen at $1.1250 and then at $1.1100. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0.

July lumber futures closed up $1.10 at $276.00 today. Bears
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears
is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support
at the April low of $262.50. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $280.00. First resistance is
seen at $278.00 and then at $279.00. First support is seen
at $274.00 and then at $272.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
4.0

*. METALS: August gold futures closed up $19.60 an ounce at
$1,586.50 today. Prices closed near the session high and
saw some fresh safe-haven buying interest amid a “risk off”
trading day in the market place. Short covering was also
featured following last week’s losses. Gold market bears
still have the slight overall near-term technical
advantage. The gold bulls’ next upside price breakout
objective is to produce a close above psychological
resistance at $1,600.00. Bears' next near-term downside
price objective is closing prices below solid technical
support at the May low of $1,529.30. First resistance is
seen at $1,590.00 and then at $1,600.00. First support is
seen at $1,575.00 and then at today’s low of $1,566.90.
Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 4.5

July silver futures closed up $0.854 an ounce at $27.51
today. Prices closed near the session high today and saw
short covering in a bear market. Some bargain hunters also
stepped in to buy after prices Friday closed at a fresh
1.5-year low close. Bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at last week’s high of $29.095 an ounce. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at last
October’s low of $26.20. First resistance is seen at $27.75
and then at $28.00. Next support is seen at $27.00 and then
at last week’s low of $26.51. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

July N.Y. copper closed up 95 points 331.55 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. The key
“outside markets” were bearish for copper today, as the
U.S. dollar index was higher while crude oil prices were
lower. Copper bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at last week’s high of 347.75 cents.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the June
low of 323.80 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 333.20 cents and then at 335.00 cents. First
support is seen at 330.00 cents and then at today’s low of
327.85 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

*. ENERGIES: August crude oil closed down $0.62 a barrel at
$79.14 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and are
hovering near last Friday’s 8.5-month low. A firmer U.S.
dollar index pressured crude today. The crude bears have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next
near-term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil
bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance
at $85.00 a barrel. The next near-term downside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at $75.00. First
resistance is seen at $80.00 and then at today’s high of
$80.68. First support is seen at today’s low of $78.03 and
then at Friday’s low of $77.56. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
1.0

August heating oil closed up 39 points at $2.5358 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh 1.5-year
low early on. Bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage as prices are in a 2.5-month-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $2.7000. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is producing a close below solid
technical support at $2.5000. First resistance lies at
today’s high of $2.5603 and then at $2.5903. First support
is seen at today’s low of $2.5084 and then at $2.5000.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

August (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 279 points at
$2.4955 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
on short covering in a bear market. Prices last week hit an
8.5-month low. Bears have the solid near-term technical
advantage. A three-month-old downtrend is in place on the
daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective
for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $2.6000. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is closing prices below solid support at $2.4000.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2.5080 and
then at $2.5250. First support is seen at today’s low of
$2.4611 and then at last week’s low of $2.4408. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 1.5.

August natural gas closed up 6.4 cents at $2.732 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh four-
week high. Short covering and buying tied to storms in the
Gulf of Mexico shutting in nat gas production were featured
today. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical
playing field. The next upside price breakout objective for
the bulls is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the May high of $2.838. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at $2.50. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $2.774 and then at $2.838. First
support is seen at $2.70 and then at $2.65. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The September Euro
currency closed down 66 points at 1.2506 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh two-
week low. The Euro bears have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.2759. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid chart support at 1.2450. First
resistance for the Euro lies at today’s high of 1.2569 and
then at 1.2600. Next support is seen at today’s low of
1.2481 and then at 1.2450. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

The September Japanese yen closed up 117 points at 1.2561
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
some short covering and bargain hunting. Prices hit a fresh
two-month low early on today. Bulls are on a level near-
term technical playing field with the bears. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at 1.2737. Bears' next downside breakout
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at 1.2300. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
1.2602 and then at 1.2650. First support is seen at 1.2500
and then at 1.2440. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The September Swiss franc closed down 54 points at 1.0429
today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh
two-week low today. The bears have the overall near-term
technical advantage in the Swissy. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid resistance at 1.0684. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at the June low of 1.0280. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0477 and then at
1.0500. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.0407 and
then at 1.0375. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

The September Australian dollar closed down 78 points at
.9918 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today on
some more profit taking. Bulls and bears are on a level
near-term technical playing field. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid chart
resistance at last week’s high of 1.0142. The next downside
breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at .9750. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of .9977 and then at 1.0000. Next
support is seen at today’s low of .9894 and then at .9850.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

The September Canadian dollar closed down 41 points at
.9698 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bears have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is producing a close above
chart resistance at last week’s high of .9824. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the June low of
.9554. First resistance is seen at today’s high of .9736
and then at .9750. First support is seen at today’s low of
.9674 and then at .9639. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

The September British pound closed down 17 points at 1.5565
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls and bears
are on a level near-term technical playing field but the
bulls are fading. The next upside price breakout objective
for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at last week’s high of 1.5773. Bears' next
downside technical breakout objective is closing prices
below solid support at 1.5450. First resistance is seen at
1.5500 and then at 1.5553. First support is seen at today’s
low of 1.5534 and then at 1.5500. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.0.

The September U.S. dollar index closed up 20 points at
82.64 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls have
the overall near-term technical advantage and have regained
some upside momentum. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at the June high of 84.00. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at last week’s low of
81.39. Next resistance lies at today’s high of 82.82 and
then at 83.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
82.46 and then at 82.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

September U.S. T-Bonds closed up 1 5/32 at 149 8/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today on fresh safe-
haven buying. Bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next downside price
breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 146 even. The next upside
technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at the contract high of
152 19/32. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 149
13/32 and then at 149 22/32. First support is seen at 149
even and then at 148 7/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

September U.S. T Notes closed up 17.0 (32nds) at 133.17.0
today. Prices closed nearer the session high on safe-haven
buying. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the
daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective
for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at
the contract high of 134.30.5. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is producing a close below
solid technical support at 132.16.0. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 133.19.0 and then at last week’s
high of 133.31.5. First support is seen at today’s low of
133.00.0 and then at last week’s low of 132.27.0. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
lower today. The market place exhibited a “risk-off”
mentality to start the new trading week Monday. European,
Asian and U.S. stock markets were weaker as focus is on the
European Union’s summit that begins Thursday. Reports
Monday said Greece’s new finance minister will have to be
replaced due to health issues. Reports also said the new
Greek prime minister won’t be attending Thursday’s EU
summit because he has been ill. Not a good start for the
new Greek government. The EU debt crisis will be the focus
of the meeting, but market place expectations for any
meaningful results are low, and just got lower Monday. The
market place was further unnerved on reports German leader
Merkel make hawkish remarks on EU members being responsible
for their own debt problems. All of this prompted little
buying interest in the stock indexes.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 46.50 at
2,527.00. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls
are fading. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid resistance at 2,650.00. The
bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing
prices below solid technical support at the June low of
2,433.75. First resistance is seen at 2,550.00 and then at
today’s high of 2,577.25. First support is seen at today’s
low of 2,521.00 and then at 2,500.00. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 20.30 at 1,306.50.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls are
fading. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid resistance at 1,375.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid support at the June low of 1,262.30.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1,326.00 and
then at 1,341.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
1,302.70 and then at 1,287.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.0.

The Dow futures closed down 138 points at 12,430 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls are fading. The
next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at 13,000. The next
downside price objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 12,300. First resistance
in the Dow lies at today’s high of 12,465 and then at
12,500. First support is seen at today’s low of 12,400 and
then at 12,350. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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