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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--May 23

May 24, 2012

Wednesday Evening, May 23-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: August live cattle closed down $1.77 at
$119.50 today. Prices closed near mid-range today as the
bulls faded. The key “outside markets” were fully bearish
for the cattle market today as the U.S. dollar index was
sharply higher and crude oil prices were sharply lower.
Bears now have the slight near-term technical advantage.
The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push
and close prices above solid technical resistance at this
week’s high of $122.40. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $117.40. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $120.17 and then at
$120.67. First support is seen at today’s low of $119.00
and then at $118.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

August feeder cattle closed down $1.65 at $158.47 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are
in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the feeder bulls is to
push and close prices above solid technical resistance at
this week’s high of $161.40. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of
$156.20. First resistance is seen at $159.00 and then at
today’s high of $159.40. First support is seen at $158.00
and then at $157.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

August lean hogs closed down $0.90 at $85.95 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today. The key “outside markets” were
fully bearish for the hog market today as the U.S. dollar
index was sharply higher and crude oil prices were sharply
lower. Hog bears have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage at present. The next upside price breakout
objective for the hog bulls is to push and close prices
above solid chart resistance at $88.00. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices
below solid technical support at the contract low of
$84.80. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $86.65
and then at $87.00. First support is seen at $85.50 and
then at today’s low of $85.15. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

*. GRAINS: July corn futures closed up 7 3/4 cents at $6.04
3/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and
saw short covering and some bargain hunting. The key
“outside markets” were fully bearish for the corn market
today as the U.S. dollar index was sharply higher and crude
oil prices were sharply lower. That did somewhat limit
buying interest in corn. Corn market bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Corn bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of
$6.44 1/2. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at the May low of $5.72 1/4. First
resistance for July corn is seen at today’s high of $6.11
and then at $6.15. First support is seen at $6.00 and then
at $5.95. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

July soybeans closed down 16 3/4 cents at $13.65 1/2 a
bushel today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit a fresh
two-month low today. There were rumors of Chinese
cancellations of recent U.S. soybean purchases. The key
“outside markets” were also fully bearish for the bean
market today as the U.S. dollar index was sharply higher
and crude oil prices were sharply lower. Soybean prices are
in a three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart as the
bulls are fading. Bean bulls still have the slight overall
near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside
technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is
pushing and closing prices above psychological resistance
at $14.00 a bushel. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $13.40. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of $13.82 3/4 and then at $13.90. First
support is seen at today’s low of $13.51 and then at
$13.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

July soybean meal closed up $0.80 at $405.80 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today and did hit a fresh
four-week low early on. Meal bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of
$422.50. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $387.00. First resistance comes in at today’s
high of $407.00 and then at $410.00. First support is seen
at $402.50 and then at $400.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.5

July bean oil closed down 144 points at 49.02 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low and careened to a
fresh contract low today. The key “outside markets” were
fully bearish for the bean oil market today as the U.S.
dollar index was sharply higher and crude oil prices were
sharply lower. Bean oil bears have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage and gained more downside power
today. Bean oil prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on
the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high
of 51.28 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at 47.50 cents. First
resistance is seen at 49.50 cents and then at 50.00 cents.
First support is seen at today’s low of 48.55 cents and
then at 48.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

July Chicago SRW wheat closed down 17 1/4 cents at $6.68
1/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today as
bulls are quickly fading. The key “outside markets” were
bearish for the wheat market today as the U.S. dollar index
was sharply higher and crude oil prices were sharply lower.
Wheat bulls and bears are now back on a level near-term
technical playing field. Bulls’ next upside breakout
objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above
psychological resistance at $7.00 a bushel. The next
downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $6.40. First resistance is seen at $6.75 and
then at today’s high of $6.85. First support lies at
today’s low of $6.63 1/2 and then at $6.55 1/2. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0.

July K.C. HRW wheat closed down 15 cents at $6.86 1/2
today. Prices closed near the session low today and saw
more profit-taking from recent gains. Bulls are fading.
Wheat bulls and bears are now back on a level near-term
technical playing field. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at this week’s high of $7.23 1/4. The
bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $6.75.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.90 and then
at $7.00. First support is seen at $6.80 and then at $6.75.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

July oats closed down 8 1/2 cents at $3.25 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh four-
week low as the bulls have faded. Bulls and bears are now
back on a level near-term technical playing field. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at the April
low of $3.22. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at this week’s high of $3.44. First support lies
at $3.22 and then at $3.20. First resistance is seen at
$3.26 and then at $3.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

*. SOFTS: July sugar closed down 29 points at 19.51 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit
another fresh 16-month low. The key “outside markets” were
fully bearish for the sugar market today as the U.S. dollar
index was sharply higher and crude oil prices were sharply
lower. Sugar prices this week have seen a bearish downside
“breakout” from a recent trading range. Sugar bears have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are
in a nine-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of 20.93 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at 19.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 19.84 cents and then at 20.00 cents. First support
is seen at today’s low of 19.36 cents and then at 19.00
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

July coffee closed down 815 points at 166.35 cents. Prices
closed near the session low today and hit a fresh 21-month
low today. The key “outside markets” were fully bearish for
the coffee market today as the U.S. dollar index was
sharply higher and crude oil prices were sharply lower.
Coffee prices are in an 8.5-month-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart and today saw a bearish downside “breakout”
from the sideways trading range at lower levels. The bears
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and
gained more power today. The coffee bulls' next upside
breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at 182.50 cents. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at 160.00 cents a pound. First
resistance is seen at 170.00 cents and then at today’s high
of 173.50 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of
165.10 cents and then at 162.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 1.0

July cocoa closed down $67 at $2,112 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session low and hit a fresh five-week low today.
The key “outside markets” were fully bearish for the cocoa
market today as the U.S. dollar index was sharply higher
and crude oil prices were sharply lower. Cocoa bears have
the solid near-term technical advantage and gained more
power today. The next upside price breakout objective for
the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at $2,250. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at the April low of
$2,056. First resistance is seen at $2,150 and then at
today’s high of $2,172. First support is seen at today’s
low of $2,100 and then at $2,075. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
2.0

July cotton closed down 301 points at 71.51 cents today.
Prices careened to another fresh 21-month low today. The
key “outside markets” were fully bearish for the cotton
market today as the U.S. dollar index was sharply higher
and crude oil prices were sharply lower. The cotton bears
have the solid near-term technical advantage and have
gained more power this week. Prices are in a 3.5-month-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. There are no early clues
of a market low being close at hand. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at 78.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is
to push and close prices below solid technical support at
70.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 72.50 cents and
then at 74.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low
of 70.53 cents and then at 70.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 1.0

July orange juice closed down 600 points at $1.0260 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. FCOJ bears have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The key
“outside markets” were fully bearish for the FCOJ market
today as the U.S. dollar index was sharply higher and crude
oil prices were sharply lower. Prices are in a four-month-
old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and
closing prices above technical resistance at $1.2500. The
next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ
bears is to produce a close below solid technical support
at $.9000. First resistance is seen at $1.0500 and then at
today’s high of $1.10890. First support is seen at today’s
low of $.9970 and then at the contract low of $.9710.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

July lumber futures closed up $2.90 at $286.40 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls and
bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. The
next downside technical breakout objective for the lumber
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at the May low of $276.00. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the February
high of $294.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of $287.00 and then at $288.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of $285.00 and then at this week’s low of
$283.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

*. METALS: June gold futures closed down $30.00 an ounce at
$1,536.50 today. Prices closed nearer the session low again
today and were pressured by fully bearish “outside
markets”—a sharply higher U.S. dollar index and sharply
lower crude oil prices. Bulls have quickly faded,
technically, after showing a glimmer of strength late last
week. Gold bears again have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. An 11-week-old downtrend is in place
on the daily bar chart. The gold bulls’ next upside price
breakout objective is to produce a close above
psychological resistance at $1,600.00. Bears' next near-
term downside price objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at last week’s low of $1,526.70. First
resistance is seen at $1,560.00 and then at today’s high of
$1,568.50. First support is seen at today’s low of
$1,532.80 and then at $1,526.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
2.5.

July silver futures closed down $0.704 an ounce at $27.475
today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today.
The key “outside markets” were fully bearish for silver
today, as the U.S. dollar index was sharply higher and
crude oil prices were sharply lower. Silver prices are in
an 11-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The silver
bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. Bulls’
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of
$29.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at the December low of $26.50. First resistance is
seen at $28.00 and then at today’s high of $28.17. Next
support is seen at today’s low of $27.08 and then at
$27.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

July N.Y. copper closed down 715 points 341.70 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh five-
month low today. The key “outside markets” were fully
bearish for the copper market today, as the U.S. dollar
index was sharply higher and crude oil prices were sharply
lower. Copper bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage and gained more power today. Copper bulls' next
upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at 357.75 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the December low of
327.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 345.00 cents and
then at today’s high of 347.75 cents. First support is seen
at today’s low of 338.65 cents and then at 335.00 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

*. ENERGIES: July crude oil closed down $1.45 a barrel at
$90.39 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit
another fresh 6.5-month low. Prices were pressured by a
stronger U.S. dollar index and a risk- off trading day
today. The crude bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The next near-term upside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a
close above solid technical resistance at $96.00 a barrel.
The next near-term downside price breakout objective for
the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at $87.00. First resistance is seen at
$91.00 and then at today’s high of $91.72. First support is
seen at today’s low of $89.28 and then at $89.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.5

July heating oil closed down 339 points at $2.8316 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh five-
month low. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage as prices are in a two-month-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. The bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $2.9500. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is producing a close below solid technical
support at $2.7500. First resistance lies at $2.8500 and
then at today’s high of $2.8655. First support is seen at
today’s low of $2.8076 and then at $2.8000. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0.

July (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 421 points at
$2.8171 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and hit another fresh 4.5-month low. Bears have the near-
term technical advantage. A two-month-old downtrend is in
place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $2.9700. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is closing prices below solid
support at $2.7500. First resistance is seen at $2.8500 and
then at today’s high of $2.8654. First support is seen at
today’s low of $2.7926 and then at $2.7750. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0.

July natural gas closed up 0.5 cent at $2.78 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high again today. Prices Friday
hit an 11-week high. The bulls have some upside near-term
technical momentum. Bulls and bears are on a level near-
term technical playing field. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $3.00. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at last week’s low of $2.458.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2.806 and then
at last week’s high of $2.838. First support is seen at
today’s low of $2.685 and then at $2.60. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The June Euro currency
closed down 137 points at 1.2583 today. Prices closed
nearer the session low today and hit a fresh 22-month low.
The recent “key reversal” up on the daily bar chart was
today rendered moot. The bears have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage and gained fresh power today. Euro
prices are in a three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at this week’s high of 1.2826. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid chart support at 1.2400. First resistance for the
Euro lies at 1.2644 and then at 1.2700. Next support is
seen at today’s low of 1.2546 and then at 1.2500. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 1.5

The June Japanese yen closed up 100 points at 1.2583 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today as trading has
become choppy. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend
on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at last
week’s high of 1.2663. Bears' next downside breakout
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at last week’s low of 1.2416. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1.2627 and then at 1.2663. First support is
seen at 1.2500 and then at this week’s low of 1.2476.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

The June Swiss franc closed down 111 points at 1.0482
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh nearly two-year low today. The bears have the solid
near-term technical advantage in the Swissy and gained more
power today. Prices are in a two-month-old downtrend. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid resistance at this week’s high
of 1.0678. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid technical support
at 1.0400. First resistance is seen at 1.0500 and then at
today’s high of 1.0567. First support is seen at today’s
low of 1.0451 and then at 1.0400. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
1.5.

The June Australian dollar closed down 84 points at .9732
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh
six-month low. Bears have the solid near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at
1.0000. The next downside breakout objective for the bears
is to produce a close below solid technical support at
.9500. First resistance is seen at today’s high of .9776
and then at .9800. Next support is seen at today’s low of
.9666 and then at .9600. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

The June Canadian dollar closed down 45 points at .9750
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another
4.5-month low. Bears have the near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
producing a close above chart resistance at .9900. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the December low of
.9570. First resistance is seen at .9800 and then at .9843.
First support is seen at today’s low of .9705 and then at
.9650. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

The June British pound closed down 79 points at 1.5694
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh nine-week low. Bears have the near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
1.5950. Bears' next downside technical breakout objective
is closing prices below solid support at the March low of
1.5591. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.5770
and then at 1.5800. First support is seen at today’s low of
1.5666 and then at 1.5591. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

The June U.S. dollar index closed up 54 points at 82.19
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
safe haven buying. The index hit a fresh 21-month high
today. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage and gained more upside power today. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to close prices above
solid technical resistance at 83.00. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at 81.00. Next
resistance lies at today’s high of 82.36 and then at 82.50.
First support is seen at 82.00 and then at today’s low of
81.71. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

June U.S. T-Bonds closed up 1 6/32 at 147 31/32 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and saw more safe-haven
investment demand. Bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-old uptrend
on the daily bar chart. There are no early technical clues
to suggest a market top is close at hand. The next downside
price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 145 even. The next
upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at 150 even. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 148 18/32 and then at
the contract high of 148 23/32. First support is seen at
today’s low of 147 2/32 and then at this week’s low of 146
22/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5.

June U.S. T Notes closed up 12.5 (32nds) at 133.22.5 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh
contract high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend
on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at 135.00.0. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is producing a close below solid
technical support at last week’s low of 132.17.5. First
resistance is seen at today’s contract high of 133.28.5 and
then at 134.00.0. First support is seen at today’s low of
133.12.5 and then at this week’s low of 133.04.0. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 8.5

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
mixed today but well off their session lows. It was another
“risk-off” day in the market place today and that was
bearish for the stock market.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 5.25 at 2,540.50.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at 2,650.00. The bears' next downside
price breakout objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at 2,400.00. First resistance is seen at
this week’s high of 2,561.50 and then at 2,575.00. First
support is seen at today’s low of 2,522.25 and then at
2,500.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 0.90 at 1,315.70.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at 1,380.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid support at 1,250.00. First resistance is seen at this
week’s high of 1,326.50 and then at 1,340.00. First support
is seen at 1,300.00 and then at this week’s low of
1,287.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The Dow futures closed down 11 points at 12,466 today.
Prices closed near the session high today after hitting a
fresh 4.5-month low early on. The next upside price
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 13,000. The next downside price
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at 12,000. First resistance in the Dow
lies at 12,500 and then at this week’s high of 12,550.
First support is seen at 12,430 and then at 12,400.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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