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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--Nov. 29

Nov 30, 2012

Thursday Evening, November 29-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: February live cattle closed up $0.47 at
$132.12 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
The key “outside markets” were bullish for the cattle
market today as the U.S. dollar index was weaker and crude
oil prices were higher. Cattle bulls have the overall near-
term technical advantage. A three-week-old uptrend is in
place on the daily bar chart. A bull flag pattern has also
formed on the daily bar chart for cattle futures. The
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at the
September high of $133.30. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $130.50. First
resistance is seen at $132.52 and then at last week’s high
of $132.90. First support is seen at this week’s low of
$131.60 and then at $131.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

January feeder cattle closed up $0.67 at $146.75 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high on short covering in
a bear market. Bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at this week’s and last
week’s high of $147.90. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is to push and close prices below
solid technical support at the November low of $144.37.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $147.02 and
then at $147.50. First support is seen at this week’s low
of $146.00 and then at $145.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
3.0

February lean hogs closed down $0.45 at $87.12 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and also scored
a mildly bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart.
The hog bulls have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage as prices are in a 10-week-old uptrend on the
daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective
for the hog bulls is to push and close prices above solid
chart resistance at $90.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below
solid technical support at $85.70. First resistance is seen
at $87.75 and then at last week’s high of $88.25. First
support is seen at today’s low of $86.90 and then at this
week’s low of $86.32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

*. GRAINS: March corn futures were down 5 cents at 7.59 in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session low and
saw some mild profit taking from recent gains.
Disappointing weekly USDA export sales data for corn today
also helped to pressure corn futures. Prices Wednesday hit
a six-week high. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Corn bulls' next upside price
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at the October high of $7.75 3/4. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $7.35.
First resistance for March corn is seen at this week’s high
of $7.67 1/2 and then at $7.70. First support is seen at
today’s low of $7.56 1/4 and then at $7.50. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0

January soybeans were down 2 cents at $14.44 1/4 a bushel
in late trading today. Prices were nearer the session low
after hitting another fresh three-week high early on today.
Soybean bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. However, the bulls have gained some upside near-
term momentum recently. The next near-term upside technical
breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and
closing January prices above psychological resistance at
$15.00 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at the November low of $13.72 1/4. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $14.60 and then at
$14.75. First support is seen at $14.40 and then at $14.25.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

March soybean meal was up $1.50 at $426.80 in late trading
today. Prices were nearer the session low after hitting
another three-week high early on. More short covering and
bargain hunting were seen Thursday. Meal bears still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. A 10-week-old
downtrend line is still in place on the daily bar chart.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
to produce a close above solid technical resistance at
$435.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $400.00. First resistance comes in at today’s
high of $430.50 and then at $435.00. First support is seen
at $424.20 and then at $420.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
3.5

March bean oil was down 10 points at 50.67 cents in late
trading today. Prices were near mid-range and did hit a
fresh four-week high early on today. The bulls have gained
some upside technical momentum recently. However, the bean
oil bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 52.00 cents. Bean oil bears' next
downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at 49.00
cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 51.13
cents and then at 51.50 cents. First support is seen at
today’s low of 50.41 cents and then at 50.00 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

March Chicago SRW wheat was down 8 1/2 cents at $8.82 3/4
in late trading today. Prices were nearer the session low
on some profit taking and a corrective pullback from recent
gains. Deteriorating conditions in the U.S. hard red winter
wheat crop are still bullish. Reports say the U.S. HRW crop
conditions are the worst on record, at present. Wheat bulls
have the near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls’ next
upside breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW
prices above solid technical resistance at $9.00 a bushel.
The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat
futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at this week’s low of $8.58 1/4. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of $8.95 1/2 and
then at $9.00. First support lies at $8.75 and then at
$8.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

March K.C. HRW wheat was down 8 cents at $9.28 1/4 in late
trading today. Prices were near the session low on some
profit taking and a corrective pullback from recent gains.
HRW bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at the November high of $9.63. The bears' next downside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at this week’s low of $8.93. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of $9.40 and then at
$9.50. First support is seen at $9.23 1/2 and then at
$9.15. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

March oats were down 9 3/4 cents at $3.77 1/2 today in late
trading. Prices were nearer the session low and seeing some
profit taking and a corrective pullback. Oats bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at the November low of
$3.62 1/2. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at $4.00. First support lies at this week’s low of $3.76
and then at $3.70. First resistance is seen at $3.80 and
then at $3.85. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed up 15 points at 19.31 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on short
covering in a bear market. The key “outside markets” were
in a bullish posture for sugar today as the U.S. dollar
index was weaker and crude oil prices were higher. Sugar
bears still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
to push and close prices above solid technical resistance
at the November high of 20.03 cents. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is to push and close prices below
solid technical support at the November low of 18.66 cents.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 19.40 cents and
then at this week’s high of 19.47 cents. First support is
seen at this week’s low of 19.04 cents and then at 18.91
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

March coffee closed up 30 points at 155.15 cents. Prices
closed near mid-range today and saw tepid short covering in
a bear market. Prices Wednesday hit a 22-month low. There
was not good follow-through buying interest today and a
bullish “key reversal” up on the daily bar chart was not
confirmed. The coffee bears still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a seven-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside
breakout objective for the bulls is to close prices above
solid technical resistance at 160.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 145.00 cents a
pound. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of
157.80 cents and then at 160.00 cents. First support is
seen at today’s low of 153.50 cents and then at 152.00
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

March cocoa closed up $32 at $2,490 a ton. Prices closed
near mid-range today on more short covering. The cocoa
bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing
field. The next upside price breakout objective for the
cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at the October high of $2,531. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the November low of $2,322. First resistance is seen at the
November high of $2,520 and then at the October high of
$2,531. First support is seen at today’s low of $2,461 and
then at $2,450. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

March cotton closed up 61 points at 73.24 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and did hit a fresh
five-week high. The key “outside markets” were in a bullish
posture for cotton today as the U.S. dollar index was
weaker and crude oil prices were higher. Today’s price
action did produce what could be a bullish upside
“breakout” from the recent choppy and sideways trading
range. Cotton bulls and bears are now back on a level near-
term technical playing field. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at 75.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is
to push and close prices below solid technical support at
the November low of 69.79 cents. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of 73.98 cents and then at 75.00 cents.
First support is seen at today’s low of 72.27 cents and
then at this week’s low of 71.47 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0.

January orange juice closed up 50 points at $1.2375 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. FCOJ bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage but
are now fading a bit. The next upside price breakout
objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices
above technical resistance at the September high of
$1.3010. The next downside technical breakout objective for
the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at last week’s low of $1.1430. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $1.2670 and then at this week’s
high of $1.2950. First support is seen at $1.2300 and then
at $1.2200. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

January lumber futures closed up $1.40 at $340.50 today.
Prices hit another fresh contract and 6.5-year high today
and then backed off to close near the session low. Some
better U.S. economic data recently has helped to fuel the
lumber bulls. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $325.00. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$350.00. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high
of $345.80 and then at $350.00. First support is seen at
$335.00 and then at $332.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

*. METALS: February gold futures closed up $10.90 an ounce
at $1,729.80 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
today and saw some short covering and bargain hunting
following Wednesday’s sharp losses. The key “outside
markets” were bullish for the gold market today as the U.S.
dollar index was weaker and crude oil prices were higher.
Gold bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The gold bulls’ next upside price breakout
objective is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at the November high of $1,757.10. Bears' next
near-term downside breakout price objective is closing
prices below solid technical support at $1,700.00. First
resistance is seen at $1,740.00 and then at $1,750.00.
First support is seen at today’s low of $1,720.10 and then
at this week’s low of $1,707.90. Wyckoff’s Market Rating:
6.0

March silver futures closed up $0.62 an ounce at $34.39
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today, hit a
fresh seven-week high and saw bargain hunting and short
covering. The key “outside markets” were bullish for the
silver market today as the U.S. dollar index was weaker and
crude oil prices were higher. A four-week-old uptrend is in
place on the daily bar chart and silver bulls have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the October high of $35.51 an
ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
this week’s low of $32.995. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $34.49 and then at $35.00. Next support is
seen at $34.00 and then at today’s low of $33.61. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0.

March N.Y. copper closed up 695 points at 360.70 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh four-week high. The key “outside markets” were
bullish for the gold market today as the U.S. dollar index
was weaker and crude oil prices were higher. Bulls gained
fresh upside near-term technical momentum today and now
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper
bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 370.00
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
this week’s low of 349.45 cents. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of 362.20 cents and then at 365.00 cents.
First support is seen at 356.50 cents and then at 355.00
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

*. ENERGIES: January crude oil closed up $1.45 a barrel at
$87.94 today. Prices closed near mid-range today on short
covering and bargain hunting. A weaker U.S. dollar today
was also supportive for crude. Crude oil bears still have
the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next
near-term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil
bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance
at $90.00 a barrel. The next near-term downside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at the November low of
$84.53. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $88.69
and then at $89.00. First support is seen at $87.00 and
then at today’s low of $86.55. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

January heating oil closed up 347 points at $3.0556 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls and
bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. The
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $3.1500. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is producing a close
below solid technical support at $3.0000. First resistance
lies at today’s high of $3.0746 and then at the November
high of $3.1026. First support is seen at today’s low of
$3.0174 and then at this week’s low of $2.9885. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0.

January (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 403 points at
$2.7291 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
October high of $2.8241. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at
$2.6200. First resistance is seen at the November high of
$2.7505 and then at $2.7750. First support is seen at
$2.7000 and then at today’s low of $2.6876. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.5.

January natural gas closed down 15.0 cents at $3.651 today.
Prices closed near the session low today and hit a fresh
two-week low. A bearish weekly nat gas storage report today
added to this week’s solid selling pressure. Bulls have
lost the near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at $3.90. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the November low of
$3.598. First resistance is seen at $3.70 and then at
$3.75. First support is seen at today’s low of $3.637 and
then at $3.598. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The March Euro currency
closed up 40 points at 1.2988 today. Prices closed near
mid-range today and hit a fresh four-week high. The Euro
bulls have the slight overall near-term technical
advantage. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the October high of 1.3155. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid chart support at the November low of 1.2680.
First resistance for the Euro lies at today’s high of
1.3028 and then at 1.3100. Next support is seen at today’s
low of 1.2955 and then at this week’s low of 1.2899.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

The March Japanese yen closed down 31 points at 1.2190
today. Prices closed near mid-range again today. Bears have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are
in a steep nine-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at last week’s high of
1.2345. Bears' next downside breakout objective is closing
prices below solid technical support at 1.2000. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of 1.2253 and then
at 1.2300. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.2174
and then at this week’s low of 1.2119. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 1.5.

The March Swiss franc closed up 31 points at 1.0796 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. The Swissy
bulls have the near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid resistance at the October high of
1.0874. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
the November low of 1.0555. First resistance is seen at
1.0807 and then at last week’s high of 1.0842. First
support is seen at today’s low of 1.0775 and then at this
week’s low of 1.0736. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

The March Australian dollar closed down 43 points at 1.0343
today. Prices closed near the session low today on profit
taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid chart resistance at the
September high of 1.0470. The next downside breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at the November low of 1.0203. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of 1.0397 and then
at 1.0470. Next support is seen at today’s low of 1.0336
and then at 1.0300. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

The March Canadian dollar closed up 3 points at 1.0054
today. Prices closed near mid-range on stepid short
covering. Bears still have the slight near-term technical
advantage but the bulls have gained some upside momentum
recently. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
producing a close above chart resistance at the November
high of 1.0095. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at the November low of .9919. First resistance is
seen at this week’s high of 1.0070 and then at 1.0095.
First support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0016 and then
at 1.0000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

The March British pound closed up 21 points at 1.6034
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls
have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
November high of 1.6140. Bears' next downside technical
breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at
the November low of 1.5828. First resistance is seen at
this week’s high of 1.6053 and then at 1.6100. First
support is seen at 1.6000 and then at this week’s low of
1.5960. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

The March U.S. dollar index closed down 14 points at 80.40
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and did poke to a
fresh four-week low. The bears have regained the near-term
technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at the November high of 81.70. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at 80.00. Next
resistance lies at this week’s high of 80.82 and then at
81.00. First support is seen at today’s low of 80.27 and
then at 80.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

March U.S. T-Bonds closed down 4/32 at 149 30/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls still
have the overall technical advantage. The next downside
price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 147 even. The next
upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at the November high
of 151 10/32. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
150 5/32 and then at this week’s high of 150 14/32. First
support is seen at today’s low of 149 14/32 and then at 149
even. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

March U.S. T Notes closed up 1.5 (32nds) at 133.17.0 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid resistance at the November high of 133.27.5.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at the
November low of 131.24.5. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 133.19.0 and then at 133.22.0. First
support is seen at today’s low of 133.09.0 and then at seen
at 133.00.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
firmer again today. The bulls are showing some strength to
begin to suggest market bottoms are now be in place. It was
a bit better risk mentality day in the market place
Thursday, and that benefitted the stock market. The
rhetoric continued among U.S. lawmakers and President Obama
regarding the so-called “fiscal cliff” tax increases and
spending cuts that are approaching. House Speaker John
Boehner and Senate leader Harry Reid traded barbs Thursday.
However, this time the market place reacted little to their
rhetoric. This suggests the market place is coming to the
conclusion that some type of agreement will be reached on
the fiscal cliff matter before the end of the year. There
was some more upbeat economic data coming out of the U.S.
and European Union Thursday. The U.S. third-quarter gross
domestic product came in at up 2.7%, which was the
strongest growth rate in three years. Meantime, lower
unemployment in Germany and upbeat business confidence in
the EU were reported Thursday. Spanish and Italian bond
yields declined to their lowest levels in months. Declining
Spanish and Italian bond yields suggest a stabilizing
European Union debt situation, even though serious
financial problems in the bloc remain. The Wall Street
Journal reported Wednesday and Goldman Sachs predicted
Thursday that the December meeting of the U.S. Federal
Reserve’s FOMC would produce further monetary policy
stimulus (QE4). That was mildly market-sensitive and has
given the raw commodity sector a bit of support, including
the precious metals. In the Middle East, the Egyptian
political unrest continues to simmer. Meantime, a report
from the United Nations said Iran continues to expand its
nuclear enrichment program.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 18.50 at 2,679.25.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit another
fresh three-week high. Bulls and bears are back on a level
near-term technical playing field. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at 2,700.00. The bears' next downside price breakout
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at the November low of 2,492.00. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of 2,688.50 and then at 2,700.00. First
support is seen at today’s low of 2,659.75 and then at
2,650.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 8.60 at 1,415.70.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit another
fresh three-week high. Bulls and bears are back on a level
near-term technical playing field. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at the November high of 1,431.40. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid support at the Novemer low of 1,340.30. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1,418.30 and then at
1,425.00. First support is seen at today’s low of 1,405.00
and then at this week’s low of 1,383.20. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0.

The Dow futures closed up 57 points at 13,014. Prices
closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh three-
week high. The next upside price objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
November high of 13,225. The next downside price objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at the November low of 12,440. First resistance in
the Dow lies at today’s high of 13,030 and then at 13,100.
First support is seen at today’s low of 12,955 and then at
12,900. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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