Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--October 24
Oct 25, 2011
Monday Evening, October 24-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update
Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim
Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.
http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp
Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.
*. LIVESTOCK: December live cattle closed up $0.72 at
$122.87 today. Prices closed near the session high today.
The market shrugged off a bearish USDA cattle on feed
report issued Friday afternoon, at least for now. The key
“outside markets” were bullish for the cattle market today,
as the U.S. dollar index was weaker and crude oil and U.S.
stock index prices were higher. The bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at last week’s high of $124.45. The
next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the October week’s low of $120.30. First resistance is seen
at $123.10 and then at $123.75. First support is seen at
$122.50 and then at $122.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5
November feeder cattle closed up $0.07 at $142.80 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to push and
close prices above technical resistance at the contract
high of $145.90. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at last week’s low of $141.00. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $143.00 and then at
$143.55. First support is seen at today’s low of $142.37
and then at $142.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0
December lean hogs closed down $0.82 at $88.82 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low. The market was
pressured by a bearish USDA cold storage report out Friday.
However, losses were limited by bullish “outside markets”
today that included a stronger stock market, sharply higher
crude oil prices and a weaker U.S. dollar index. Hog bulls
do still have the overall near-term technical advantage,
but are now fading a bit. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to push and close prices above
solid chart resistance at last week’s contract high of
$91.45. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at
$88.00. First resistance is seen at $89.00 and then at
$89.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $88.60 and
then at $88.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5
*. GRAINS: December corn futures closed up 1/2 cent at
$6.49 3/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session low
today. The corn bulls have the slight near-term technical
advantage, but could not get much traction today amid the
bullish “outside markets” that included a stronger stock
market, sharply higher crude oil prices and a weaker U.S.
dollar index. Corn prices are still in a three-week-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. Corn bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to push and close prices above
solid technical resistance at $6.80. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below psychological support at $6.20. First
resistance for December corn is seen at $6.55 and then at
$6.60. First support is seen at $6.45 and then at $6.40.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5
November soybeans closed up 15 1/4 cents at $12.27 1/2 a
bushel today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The key
“outside markets” were bullish for the soybean market
today, as the U.S. dollar index was weaker and crude oil
and U.S. stock index prices were higher. Soybean bears
still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the
soybean bulls is pushing and closing November prices above
technical resistance at the October high of $12.75 3/4 a
bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below psychological
support at $12.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of $12.39 3/4 and then at $12.50. First support is seen at
today’s low of $12.09 1/2 and then at $12.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.5.
December soybean meal closed up $4.10 at $320.60 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bears still
have the slight near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce
a close above technical resistance at the October high of
$330.50. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at the October low of $300.90. First resistance
comes in at today’s high of $323.10 and then at $325.00.
First support is seen at $317.40 and then at last week’s
low of $314.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.
December bean oil closed up 51 points at 51.76 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. The key “outside
markets” were bullish for the bean oil market today, as the
U.S. dollar index was weaker and crude oil and U.S. stock
index prices were higher. Bean oil bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
October high of 53.92 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside
technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at 50.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at 52.00 cents and then at today’s high
of 52.35 cents. First support is seen at 51.50 cents and
then at today’s low of 51.06 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.5
December Chicago SRW wheat closed up 9 1/2 cents at $6.41
1/2 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and
saw short covering in a bear market. The key “outside
markets” were bullish for the wheat market today, as the
U.S. dollar index was weaker and crude oil and U.S. stock
index prices were higher. Wheat bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW
prices above solid technical resistance at the October high
of $6.65 1/4 a bushel. The next downside price breakout
objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and
closing prices below major psychological support at $6.00.
First resistance is seen at $6.50 and then at $6.60. First
support lies at today’s low of $6.30 1/2 and then at $6.25
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.
December K.C. HRW wheat closed up 10 1/2 cents at $7.33 1/2
today. Prices closed near the session high and closed at a
fresh four-week high close today. Short covering was
featured. Bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at $7.60. The bears' next downside breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below psychological support at
$7.00. First resistance is seen at $7.40 and then at $7.50.
First support is seen at today’s low of $7.26 and then at
$7.15. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.
December oats closed up 3 cents at $3.40 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today. Bulls and bears are on
a level near-term technical playing field. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid chart support at $3.25. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $3.50. First
support lies at today’s low of $3.37 3/4 and then at last
week’s low of $3.34. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of $3.45 and then at the October high of $3.47.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0
*. SOFTS: March sugar closed up 67 points at 27.15 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Short
covering and bargain hunting were featured today. The key
“outside markets” were bullish for the sugar market today,
as the U.S. dollar index was weaker and crude oil and U.S.
stock index prices were higher. Sugar bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to push and close prices above
solid technical resistance at the October high of 28.35
cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to
push and close prices below solid technical support at
26.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
27.30 cents and then at 27.50 cents. First support is seen
at 27.00 cents and then at today’s low of 26.48 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5
December coffee closed up 630 points at 251.15 cents.
Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh
five-week high. The key “outside markets” were bullish for
the coffee market today, as the U.S. dollar index was
weaker and crude oil and U.S. stock index prices were
higher. The coffee bulls have quickly gained upside momentu
and have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
coffee bulls' next upside breakout objective is to close
prices above solid technical resistance at 260.00 cents.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at 235.00
cents a pound. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
251.50 cents and then at 252.50 cents. First support is
seen at 250.00 cents and then at 246.50 cents. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5
December cocoa closed up $59 at $2,625 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session high today. The key “outside markets”
were bullish for the cocoa market today, as the U.S. dollar
index was weaker and crude oil and U.S. stock index prices
were higher. The cocoa bears still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at $2,700. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $2,500.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,632 and then
at $2,650. First support is seen at $2,600 and then at
today’s low of $2,558. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.
December cotton closed up 84 points at 97.94 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today Prices Friday hit a
fresh nine-week low. Cotton bears have the slight near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at the October high of 104.00 cents.
The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton
bears is to push prices below solid technical support at
the August low of 93.72 cents. First support is seen at
last week’s low of 96.47 cents and then at 95.00 cents.
First resistance is seen at 98.80 cents and then at 100.00
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.
January orange juice closed up 390 points at $1.7410 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh
nine-week high. FCOJ bulls have the solid near-term
technical advantage and gained more upside momentum today.
The next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls
is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $1.8000. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below
solid technical support at $1.6500. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $1.7475 and then at $1.7650. First
support is seen at $1.7250 and then at today’s low of
$1.7020. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.
November lumber futures closed up $3.50 at $223.50 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Short covering was
featured. The bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at the contract low of
$211.10. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the October high of $230.40. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of $225.50 and then at $227.40.
First support is seen at today's low of $220.50 and then at
$217.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5
*. METALS: December gold futures closed up $15.30 an ounce
at $1,651.50 today. Prices closed near mid-range today as
trading remains choppy and sideways. It was a “risk on”
trading day in the market place today, and those types of
trading days have been bullish most commodity markets,
including gold, recently. Bulls and bears are back on a
level near-term technical playing field. Bulls' next upside
technical objective is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at $1,705.40. Bears' next near-term
downside price objective is closing prices below
psychological support at $1,600.00. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $1,663.60 and then at $1,680.00.
First support is seen at today’s low of $1,636.60 and then
at $1,625.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.
December silver futures closed up $0.392 an ounce at
$31.585 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and were
supported by a weaker U.S. dollar index and higher crude
oil prices. Silver bulls and bears are back on a level
near-term technical playing field. Silver bulls' next
upside price objective is producing a close above strong
technical resistance at $33.585 an ounce. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the October low of
$28.435. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $32.04
and then at $33.50. Next support is seen at today’s low of
$31.23 and then at $31.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.
December N.Y. copper closed up 2,350 points 345.80 cents
today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a
fresh four-week high. The key “outside markets” were
bullish for copper today, including a weaker U.S. dollar
index and sharply higher crude oil prices. A bullish
double-bottom reversal pattern may now be forming on the
daily bar chart. Copper bears still have the overall near-
term technical advantage, but the bulls did gain momentum
today as a 2.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart
was also negated. Copper bulls' next upside breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 370.00 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support 320.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 347.00 cents and then
at 350.00 cents. First support is seen at 345.00 cents and
then at 340.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.
*. ENERGIES: December crude oil closed up $4.24 a barrel at
$91.63 today. Prices closed near the session high today and
hit a fresh 11-week high. Crude bulls gained good upside
near-term technical momentum today as prices pushed above
what was a well-defined sideways trading range on the daily
bar chart. The crude market was boosted today by a weaker
U.S. dollar index, higher U.S. stock indexes and ideas the
EU debt crisis is seeing progress toward getting fixed. The
next near-term upside price breakout objective for the
crude oil bulls is producing a close above strong technical
resistance at $95.00 a barrel. The next near-term downside
price breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at $84.00.
First resistance is seen at $92.00 and then at $92.50.
First support is seen at $91.00 and then at $90.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.
December heating oil closed up 418 points at $3.0577 today.
Prices closed near the session high today. Bulls have the
slight overall near-term technical advantage. The bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at the September high of
$3.1040. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
producing a close below solid technical support at $2.9000.
First resistance lies at last week’s high of $3.0869 and
then at $3.1040. First support is seen at today’s low of
$3.0150 and then at $3.000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.
December (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 141 points at
$2.6723. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls and
bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
September high of $2.8431. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at
$2.5861. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$2.6969 and then at $2.7250. First support is seen at
$2.6500 and then at $2.6250. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.
December natural gas closed down 3.1 cents at $3.795 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. The bears have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices
are back down near the contract low. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the October high of $4.039.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at $3.70.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.865 and then
at $3.914. First support is seen at today’s low of $3.776
and then at the contract low of $3.747. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 1.0.
*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The December Euro
currency closed up 73 points at 1.3932 today. Prices closed
nearer the session high today and hit a fresh seven-week
high. Bulls have regained the slight near-term technical
advantage as prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the
daily bar chart. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 1.4000. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid chart support at last week’s low of 1.3645. First
resistance for the Euro lies at today’s high of 1.3949 and
then at 1.4000. Next support is seen at 1.3900 and then at
today’s low of 1.3815. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5
The December Japanese yen closed down 10 points at 1.3160
today. Prices closed near the session high today and held
onto the big gains scored Friday, which pushed prices to a
new contract high and saw a bullish upside “breakout” from
a sideways trading range at higher price levels. Bulls have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid resistance at 1.3300. Bears' next downside
breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical
support at the October low of 1.2912. First resistance is
seen at Friday’s contract high of 1.3216 and then at
1.3250. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.3083 and
then at 1.3050. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.
The December Swiss franc closed up 48 points at 1.1363
today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a
fresh six-week high. Bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. However, a bullish “rounding-bottom”
reversal pattern may be forming on the daily bar chart.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid resistance at 1.1600. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 1.1000. First
resistance is seen at 1.1400 and then at 1.1450. First
support is seen at today’s low of 1.1274 and then at
1.1200. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.
The December Australian dollar closed up 143 points at
1.0408 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and hit a fresh six-week high. Prices are in a steep four-
week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage and gained more
upside momentum today. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at
the September high of 1.0630. The next downside breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at 1.0000. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1.0429 and then at 1.0500. Next support is
seen at 1.0314 and then at today’s low of 1.0229. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0
The December Canadian dollar closed up 46 points at .9939
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh five-week high. Bulls and bears are back on a level
near-term technical playing field. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is producing a close above chart
resistance at 1.0000. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at .9700. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of .9965 and then at 1.0000. First support is
seen at today’s low of .9887 and then at .9850. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0.
The December British pound closed up 43 points at 1.5973
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh six-week high. The bulls have upside near-term
technical momentum. A steep three-week-old uptrend is in
place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at 1.6200. Bears' next downside
technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid
support at last week’s low of 1.5621. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 1.5998 and then at 1.6050. First
support is seen at today’s low of 1.5890 and then at
1.5800. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.
The December U.S. dollar index closed down 28 points at
76.34 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and
hit a fresh six-week low. Some near-term chart damage has
occurred recently. Prices are in a three-week-old downtrend
on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at 78.50. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at this week’s low of 76.00. Next
resistance lies at today’s high of 76.77 and then at 77.00.
First support is seen at today’s low of 76.19 and then at
76.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.
December U.S. T-Bonds closed down 13/32 at 138 3/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. However,
prices have been trending lower for four-week and the bulls
need to show fresh power soon. The next downside price
breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at last week’s low of 137
13/32. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is
to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 142
even. First resistance is seen at 139 even and then at 140
even. First support is seen at today’s low of 137 29/32 and
then at 137 13/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.
December U.S. T Notes closed down 9.5 (32nds) at 128.11.5
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but
are fading and need to show fresh power soon. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid resistance at 130.00.0. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at the
October low of 127.16.5. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 128.28.0 and then at 129.02.0. First
support is seen at 128.07.0 and then at 128.00.0. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.5
GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
higher today, with the Dow and S&P index hitting 11-week
highs. Stock index bulls have upside near-term technical
momentum to suggest that market lows are in place and that
prices can trend sideways to higher into the end of the
year. It’s been a very good October for the stock market
bulls.
The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 40.25 at 2,374.50
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid resistance at the July high of 2,435.50. The
bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing
prices below solid technical support at 2,200.00. First
resistance is seen at last week’s high of 2,388.50 and then
at 2,400.00. First support is seen at 2,350.00 and then at
today’s low of 2,320.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.
The S&P 500 futures index closed up 12.30 at 1,247.50.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh
11-week high. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is closing prices above solid resistance at 1,300.00. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid support at 1,125.00. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1,252.50 and then at
1,270.00. First support is seen at today’s low of 1,227.50
and then at 1,200.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.
The Dow futures closed up 68 points at 11,825 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh 11-week high.
The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing
prices above psychological resistance at 12,000. The next
downside price objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at last week’s low of 11,231.
First resistance in the Dow lies at today’s high of 11,875
and then at 11,950. First support is seen at today’s low of
11,775 and then at 11,700. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.
Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.
http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff