Apr 16, 2014
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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Apr 4

Apr 01, 2013

Thursday, April 4--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The latest "international incident" is North Korea and its
bellicose rhetoric toward the U.S. and South Korea. North
Korea has publicly threatened to attack the U.S. with
nuclear missiles and is also threatening South Korea. The
U.S. says it is taking North Korea’s threats seriously and
has dispatched military assets to the region surrounding
North Korea. The gold market and other safe-haven investment
assets are presently not reacting bullishly to the
uncertainty of the matter. However, that could change very
quickly if the North Korea situation turns from just
rhetoric to military conflict. In other news overnight, the
Bank of Japan embarked on more monetary easing at its latest
policy meeting. The move was not unexpected but the BOJ did
act more aggressively to ease monetary policy than many
expected. The BOJ move is an underlying bullish factor for
the raw commodity sector. The European Central Bank and Bank
of England also hold monetary policy meetings Thursday. The
Euro currency fell to a fresh for-the-move low against the
U.S. dollar following more downbeat economic news coming out
of the European Union on Thursday. German and French
purchasing managers’ data came in weaker than expected. Most
agree the Euro zone is presently in a full blown economic
recession. U.S. economic data due for release Thursday
includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger
job cuts report, and the global services PMI.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls have
the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term
moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s
for-the-move high of 1,568.00 and then at 1,575.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at Wednesday’s
low of 1,544.00 and then at last week’s low of 1,539.20.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early
today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-
day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is located at this week’s high of
2,823.00 and then at 2,835.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at this week’s low of 2,780.25 and then at last week’s
low of 2,771.00. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are higher early today and hovering near
this week’s all-time record high. Bulls have the solid near-
term technical advantage. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at 14,500 and then at Wednesday’s
low of 13,455. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at Wednesday’s high of 14,585 and then at this
week’s high of 14,600. Shorter-term moving averages are
bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower early today.
Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage and hit a
three-month high on Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 145 20/32 and then at
146 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at 145 even and then at
144 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady early today.
Bulls have upside near-term technical momentum as prices
Wednesday hit a 3.5-month high. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 132.17.0 and then at
132.24.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of
132.10.5 and then at 132.00.0. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is solidly higher and hit an eight-
month high overnight. The greenback bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for
the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index
finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight
high of 83.545 and then at 83.750. Shorter-term support is
seen at 83.000 and then at the overnight low of 82.830.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are near steady today following Wednesday’s
big price drop that did deflate the bulls. In May Nymex
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
$95.00 and then at $96.00. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at $94.00 and then at $93.50. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were mostly weaker overnight. A stronger U.S.
dollar index is a bearish factor for the grains Thursday
morning. Traders will closely examine this morning’s weekly
USDA export sales report. Serious near-term chart damage
has been inflicted in the grain futures markets recently.
The path of least resistance for corn, soybeans and wheat
remains sideways to lower. U.S. Corn Belt weather patterns
will start to dominate the fundamental news in the coming
weeks, but wetter weather patterns in the central U.S. are
also bearish for the grains at present. However, if the wet
weather in the Corn Belt persists, it could cause concern
about corn-planting delays.
 

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