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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Apr 5

Mar 27, 2013

Friday, April 5--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Traders and investors are awaiting Friday morning’s release
of the U.S. Labor Department’s employment situation report,
which is arguably the most important U.S. economic report of
the month. The consensus forecast for that report calls for
the key non-farm payrolls figure to have risen by around
200,000 in March, with the overall unemployment rate
unchanged from the previous month, at 7.7%. The weaker-than-
expected ADP national employment report released on
Wednesday has many analysts ratcheting back expectations for
Friday’s Labor Department jobs report. In overnight news,
the Japanese yen hit a 3.5-year low against the U.S. dollar
following Thursday’s conclusion of the Bank of Japan
meeting, which saw the central bank implement more
aggressive monetary stimulus measures. The Euro currency was
supported Friday by a better-than-expected report on German
manufacturing orders, which rose 2.3% in February. However,
Euro zone retail sales dropped in February by 0.3%. North
Korea and its bellicose rhetoric toward the U.S. and South
Korea this week continues to attract the attention of the
market place. North Korea has publicly threatened to attack
the U.S. with nuclear missiles and is also threatening South
Korea. The U.S. is taking North Korea’s threats seriously
and has dispatched military assets to the region surrounding
North Korea. The market place is digesting this news fairly
well this week. However, that could change very quickly if
the North Korea situation turns from just rhetoric to
military conflict. Other U.S. economic data due for release
Friday includes the international trade report and consumer
installment credit.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are weaker early today on profit
taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at the overnight high of 1,554.80 and
then at this week’s high of 1,568.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at last week’s low of 1,539.20 and
then at 1,529.60. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower early today. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.
The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the
overnight high of 2,785.50 and then at 2,800.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at 2,748.25 and then at 2,725.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.

Dow futures: Prices are lower early today on profit taking.
Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at
14,400 and then at 14,350. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at 14,500 and then at Thursday’s
high of 14,550. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today and hit a
three-month high overnight. Bulls have the near-term
technical advantage and are having a very good week.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 146
27/32 and then at 147 even. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
146 16/32 and then at the overnight low of 146 1/32. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer early today and hit a
fresh four-month high overnight. Bulls have upside near-
term technical momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the contract high of 133.01.0 and then
at 133.08.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 132.20.5 and then at 132.16.0. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early U.S.
trading. The greenback bulls have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar
index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of
83.010 and then at 83.245. Shorter-term support is seen at
this week’s low of 82.645 and then at 82.500. Wyckoff's
Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker early today on follow-through
pressure from sharp losses posted on Wednesday and Thursday.
Bears have gained good downside technical momentum this
week, to suggest still more downside price pressure in the
near term. In May Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside
just above resistance at the overnight high of $93.57 and
then at $94.00. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at the overnight low of $92.71 and then at
Thursday’s low of $92.12. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.5

GRAINS

Markets were mostly lower overnight. Bears further clamped
down on the grain futures markets Thursday, with new for-
the-move lows in corn and soybeans. It would not surprise
me to see the grain market bears remain in command for at
least the next two weeks, at which time any persistent, wet
weather in the U.S. Corn Belt could start to support the
bulls, due to planting delays.
 

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